Suggestions for a speculative punt?

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Ford (F) missed EPS and revenue Feb 3, 2022. The stock down -3.6% and another -4% after hours. Time to get in or adding position ??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dddaOdJdzIk
Ford will be one of the biggest players in the EV industry. They just invested a lot of money for their EV division. Ford (F) is Bluechip Quality Stock and is in S&P 500 index.

Ever considered VW? 

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

FB spent billions of $ buying back shares at at average price of $333. Shareholders would have been better rewarded with a dividend. FB are suffering from lower than expected advertising revenues. Perhaps the best days of growth are over for a while. Subscriber numbers have dropped for the first time on record. There are only so many people and hours in a day. Plenty of new and exciting places for the young to hang out. Facebook being for the grumpy oldies more and more. 

Well, using money to buy back shares instead of distributing dividend subject to never ending debate. If you are the company executive and not the owner/ the founder, not own majority of the company shares, you would prefer a dividend over share buyback as this could mean a bribe to existing shareholder to like you. Even you just give them back their own money. But if you are a growth investor you will prefer otherwise.

Example: This company pay dividend around 2.4% for this stock. But your stock price down from GBX400 to GBX53. If you knew it would end up like this, I fully believe a sensible people would prefer growth than dividend and prefer the money to be used to jack the share price so the new investor will have more confident to invest.

Each to their own but to me I just see dividend as a bonus, good to have it but not the deal breaker in making decision which stock to invest.

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Ford (F) missed EPS and revenue Feb 3, 2022. The stock down -3.6% and another -4% after hours. Time to get in or adding position ??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dddaOdJdzIk
Ford will be one of the biggest players in the EV industry. They just invested a lot of money for their EV division. Ford (F) is Bluechip Quality Stock and is in S&P 500 index.

Ever considered VW? 

I did own in VOW3 (VW in Europe, EUR). But I sold it. It has a very good P/E ratio  5.11 with Dividend Yield 2.59%. But their revenue growth is stagnant. But I will defenitely reeenter when there is a major sell-off so I could get it for a major discount.

Each to their own but I prefer to invest for growth, as I am looking for multi bagger, exponential growth instead of linear growth. I believe the company like F, TSLA, LEV, ARVL, PTRA, LCID, RIVN will grow much faster. Apart from Tesla, I just put a few hundreds each of them. This is the money I could effort to lose. For non speculaitve I already have majority if my investment in index funds.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

FB spent billions of $ buying back shares at at average price of $333. Shareholders would have been better rewarded with a dividend. FB are suffering from lower than expected advertising revenues. Perhaps the best days of growth are over for a while. Subscriber numbers have dropped for the first time on record. There are only so many people and hours in a day. Plenty of new and exciting places for the young to hang out. Facebook being for the grumpy oldies more and more. 

Well, using money to buy back shares instead of distributing dividend subject to never ending debate. If you are the company executive and not the owner/ the founder, not own majority of the company shares, you would prefer a dividend over share buyback as this could mean a bribe who existing shareholder to like you and do not care the company performance in the long term. But if you are a growth investor you will prefer otherwise.

Example: This company pay dividend around 2.4% for this stock. But your stock price down from GBX400 to GBX53. I fully believe a sensible people will prefer growth than dividend.

Each to their own but to me I just see dividend as a bonus, good to have it but not the deal breaker in making decision which stock to invest.

In this particularly instance it's not a debate but a fact.  That's the observation I'm making. Making comparisons to other stocks isn't relevant. As we are discussing Facebook. 

adindas

SNAP (Snapchat) stock dropped about 25% following FB (Metaverse/Facebook) weak outlook after reporting earning. But then proceed to rally nearly 60% in a DAY when they reported their 4Q’21 results.

IMO, earning season is one of particular things to watch if you are spearheading a particular stock and want to get it at a bargain price. Earning season is pre-schedule so you know it in advance when they are. But this is not to suggest to blindly buy the stock just because it looks cheap, drops significantly without knowing the stock you buy, why you want to own it, the fair price NAV value of that stock.

This is just one of many examples where you could use "timing the market" for individual stock (NOT for a very well diversified fund) for your advantage.

Based on "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)" you cannot beat the market by timing the market assuming that the market is 100% efficient. But in reality the market is far from efficient. Exuberance is also one of the dominant factors in the stock market. That is the reason why some stocks could swing far below or above the fundamental values, their fair prices within a short period. The people who believe in "the chaos theory" are exploiting the market inefficiency and beat the market.

There is nothing to prevent people to combine it with drip-feeding adding in a smaller chunk keeping DCA (Dollar cost Averaging) to start from this area. When they keep falling, stop it and watch for another major support level before redoing it again. When they are already moving to the uptrend, stop DCA it, wait for another pull back. If no pullback and the stock keep rising, you could always use the money for another stock where you could still get it at a heavily discounted price rather than keep throwing your money for the same stock which already making a run reaching All Time High (ATH).

Not necessary, but you will get a better result if you could gauge where the bottom "area" is using technical analysis (charting tools). Not 100% accurate but it works better than 50%+.

Ordinary people could easily see that you will get a better result than just blindly buying it at any price at any time even they are at all time high just because you have money ready to invest.

This is my analogy. It is the same thing with two people have the same number of dart to throw (e.g. drip feeding, DCA the money)

1st Person. Throw the dart (money to drip-feed) they currently have  to the target multiple times randomly without watching the wind speed/direction, the distance from the target, the catalysts that could move the price significantly.

2nd Person. They will observe the whether forecast using available tools, the wind speed/direction weather in their favor or not, the distance form the target (e.g.  not to buy when the price is already going up, or reaching the ATH). They would rather save the dart for another play if the distance is too far.

Which one do you think will produce a better result ??

masonic

adindas said:

grumiofoundation said:

adindas said:

adindas said:

Both of these guys are already like god. Just watch out what they will spell out this coming Wednesday. 

When they said they will not do anything in the next three week the market will response well, but when they said, they will be more aggregative to combat inflation, rising IR earlier than expected, will start offloading its bond that is where the market will tank.

The god casted his spell yesterday January, 26 2022.

The market started green, good sentiment, but as soon as he casted his spell the market dropped lower than 2% in less than one hour.

How does it felll guys.:* :*

This CNBC article is summarising what the FED said

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/fed-decision-january-2022-.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/federal-reserve-expected-signal-march-interest-rate-hike-come-rcna13342

We are all in the same boat. From now on good to put on the diary when the god gives an update. Normally they do it every three weeks. The spell is either "hawkish" The market will dip or "dovish" the market will response favourably. Also they will announce interest rate hike in March.

But here are the statistics says regarding, the relation interest rate hike and what happen to the  stock market thereafter. It is actually good for the long term.

You have already posted these statistics and it has already been explained to you the many issues with them (choice of date ranges, terminology, numerical errors) - it seem to me this table is a pretty clear cut case of "I have a conclusion now how can i make the stats fit it'.

Indeed, the sample is too small to determine a more accurate Median, i fully agree with that. But when you have very limited time and data you will need to use what you have. It is better than nothing, it is not? Keep in mind the interest rate changing a few times a year by the central bank only happen once in every few years in a history. If you have more data so we could have more accurate result please free to add it

The improvement you could make easily, with the biggest impact, would be to annualise the percentage growth (apg). Simple formula, starting from percentage growth (pg) as a decimal e.g. 213.7% = 3.137 and -36.1% = 0.639, is apg = pg ^ (365/days_in_cycle)

Using that the annualised DJIA data for the last two periods would be hike cycle 2008-2019 = 11.4% annualised growth vs cut cycle 2019-2022 = 12.5% annualised growth. That example demonstrates how misleading it is to compare returns over periods of very different length without making such a correction, it's very hard to see that reutrns were better during the cut cycle as is actually the case.

DireEmblem

Now that news has died down, I would suggest BIDS again at anything under 4p.

To get an idea at what they do you can check out their website.

They do native in game advertising, and are not yet profitable.  That said in late 2021, they struck a deal with a AAA game developer, and a tie up agreement with Azerion(who are now also listed via SPAC), to resell their advertising space.  Now initially this might seem like an unwise move, however Azerion have a much bigger sales reach to fill up as much as possible.

BIDStack have enough cash runway at the moment to run until late 2023, and potentially further depending on the revenue streams they can bring in this year.

The next catalyst I think will be the annual accounts, confirming the company is a going concern without funding for the next 12 months, or any other tie up deals to be confirmed.

adindas

FB (Metaverse) with P/E Ratio (TTM) of 15.99x for growth tech Stock FB at the current price is a steal in my opinion. I just checked it the S&P 500 P/E ratio is currently 25.78x. NASDAQ P/E ratio is 25.23X

They might still fall due to current sentiment, so be prepared for it. But it might be a good starting point to start Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) down, drip-feeding it ?

Based on 43 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Meta Platforms in the last 3 months. The average price target is $328.88 with a high forecast of $425.00 and a low forecast of $225.00.

Also they invested heavily in Metaverse. They might be the first runner in this area gaining the first mover advantage.

adindas

Timing the Market for "individual stock" especially growth stock using the VIX and Fear and Greed Index and Fundamental Analysis. They are quite accurate is it not ??

Let alone if it is combined with technical indicator such as using RSI and MACD, Moving avarage to gauge the area around the bottom.

Thrugelmir

My current speculative interest is in STEPPE CEMENT (STCM).  A boring but cash generative business.