Suggestions for a speculative punt?

benbay001

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

To make an HGV pure electric would require a really high KWH battery.
Just going to do some rough maths, but a long distance artic lorry does 8mpg.
A driver is allowed to do 9 hours in a day, lets says 1 hour for lunch, so 8 hours on the road, at 45 mph on average.
360 miles per day, divided by 8mpg = 45gallons of fuel burnt in a day.
A gallon of diesel contains 49KWh of power.
So 49*45= 2205kwh of energy consumed.
The longest range Tesla is 100KWh.
Yes, its not quite apples for apples because a fair percentage of the diesel burnt is lost energy.
But still, its maybe going to need a range 10x the current largest capacity Tesla.
Edit - its more feasible for "delivery" lorries, but i imagine must fuel burnt is from long distance.

The battery and EV has undergone revolution driven by the demand and shortage, and tyet to be transformed into money. There are a lot of technological Breakthrough come to market such as Quantum Battery using oxide semiconductor. And There are already some companies doing that their share has been sky rocketing. Example Quantum Scape (QS), have a look how their share has been rising from their original IPO price of $10.

This is just one article, charging for sedan EV from Lucid Motor.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/19/21375308/lucid-motors-air-ev-charging-time-miles-minutes

“Lucid Motors announced that its forthcoming all-electric sedan, the Lucid Air, will be the “fastest charging electric vehicle ever offered.” The company claims the Air will have the capability to charge at rates of up to 20 miles per minute — which translates to 300 miles in about 20 minutes.

Lucid has not used Quantum Battery. Also, as I mentioned previously the charging station will be integrated to HV smart Grid using V2G managed by AI.

https://www.virta.global/vehicle-to-grid-v2g

EV Charging Stations could be built easily everywhere in the country sides as it could be tapped directly from HV grid. 

Another one that has also been going is a desing of vehicles with quick battery swapping allowing the EV battery to be swaped in just a few minutes.

When the money is there everyone will get motivated to grab it. That is where the breakthrough and technological revolution come in place.

Even if what you say is true, the infrastructure isnt there or even in development to produce that amount of electricity.
A while back I did some simple maths taking the amount of diesel and petrol sold per year in the UK, and calculated the energy contained in that volume of fuel.
I then worked out the amount of electricity that would be needed to replace the diesel and petrol demand with electricity and IIRC it was about 80x the current annual electricity consumption of the UK.
So basically, the UK needs almost 80x the number of powerstations it has now in order to get rid of diesel and petrol. 
(Not quite that bad due to being able to charge cars off peak etc)

Superscrooge

Even if everyone switched to driving EV's overnight. Electricity demand would only increase by 10%.
 
Since 2002 peak electricity demand has fallen by 16%.
  
National Grid confirm there is sufficient capacity and that EV owners actually help to balance the grid by smoothing out the peaks and troughs. EV owners usually opt for cheap off peak tarrifs that enable them to charge their vehicles overnight when there is surplus electricity.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero/5-myths-about-electric-vehicles-busted   .  

sevenhills

benbay001 said:

A while back I did some simple maths taking the amount of diesel and petrol sold per year in the UK, and calculated the energy contained in that volume of fuel.
I then worked out the amount of electricity that would be needed to replace the diesel and petrol demand with electricity and IIRC it was about 80x the current annual electricity consumption of the UK.

Do you think Centrica is a good buy, which other companies would do well in that scinario?

benbay001

I have just reran the maths and i was quite far out, but i still dont feel its plausible that the demand could be met by the current capacity.

The UK Burns:
16.2 bn litres of petrol 
30.3 bn litres of diesel
https://www.ukpra.co.uk/en/about/facts-and-figures#:~:text=The UK Retail Road Fuels Market 2019&text=Petrol - 16.2bn litres (Retail,- 9.5bn litres (Commercial)
A litre of diesel yields 3.3KWh of energy
https://www.sustainabilityexchange.ac.uk/files/cambridge_regional_college_sus_how_much_energy_do_you_use_pdf.pdf
so 30.3x 3.3 = 100GW
Petrol = 16.2x 2.75 = 44.55GW
Total = 144GW
That also assumed EVs are 100% efficient.

The article you linked to stated UK electricity consumption peaked in 2002 at 62GW, so more than double.
Maths and stats isnt my strong point, so im happy to be corrected.

adindas

benbay001 said:

I have just reran the maths and i was quite far out, but i still dont feel its plausible that the demand could be met by the current capacity.

The UK Burns:
16.2 bn litres of petrol 
30.3 bn litres of diesel
https://www.ukpra.co.uk/en/about/facts-and-figures#:~:text=The UK Retail Road Fuels Market 2019&text=Petrol - 16.2bn litres (Retail,- 9.5bn litres (Commercial)
A litre of diesel yields 3.3KWh of energy
https://www.sustainabilityexchange.ac.uk/files/cambridge_regional_college_sus_how_much_energy_do_you_use_pdf.pdf
so 30.3x 3.3 = 100GW
Petrol = 16.2x 2.75 = 44.55GW
Total = 144GW
That also assumed EVs are 100% efficient.

The article you linked to stated UK electricity consumption peaked in 2002 at 62GW, so more than double.
Maths and stats isnt my strong point, so im happy to be corrected.

Well, I think you have probably misunderstood what I have said. I never said the demand will be met, the infra stucture will be ready, the technology will be ready. As an investor (or speculator if you want to call it) we see this as an opportunity to invest/speculate in this area as the demand is high and technology is developing, the money is there to meet that demand.

When the demand is high and supply is limited, people will try to meet that demand. It is where the big money/profit will be coming.

Keep in mind the government will keep pushing up the regulation but they will also need to make sure that the network infrastucture, the technology is ready. When the money is there you keep pushing people to try to meet the demand.

For instance, in NY city by 2050, you will not be able to use your vehicles to enter the NY city including HGV, unless it is EV or come from carbon free fuels such as Hydrogen. By 2050 the EV HGV must be already in use eveywhere, otherwise the NY city will not make such bold requirement. To make such requirement they must have consulted their panel of experts and I think there is no point to contest the panel experts opinion and do our own calculation and/or our own prediction.

Similarly, regulation exist in china and I believe other cities around the world will folow.

Superscrooge

benbay001 said:

I have just reran the maths and i was quite far out, but i still dont feel its plausible that the demand could be met by the current capacity.

The UK Burns:
16.2 bn litres of petrol 
30.3 bn litres of diesel
https://www.ukpra.co.uk/en/about/facts-and-figures#:~:text=The UK Retail Road Fuels Market 2019&text=Petrol - 16.2bn litres (Retail,- 9.5bn litres (Commercial)
A litre of diesel yields 3.3KWh of energy
https://www.sustainabilityexchange.ac.uk/files/cambridge_regional_college_sus_how_much_energy_do_you_use_pdf.pdf
so 30.3x 3.3 = 100GW
Petrol = 16.2x 2.75 = 44.55GW
Total = 144GW
That also assumed EVs are 100% efficient.

The article you linked to stated UK electricity consumption peaked in 2002 at 62GW, so more than double.
Maths and stats isnt my strong point, so im happy to be corrected.

Don't forget that fossil fuel engines are very inefficient. Some waste 80% of the energy produced during combustion of fuel according to the below.
https://rentar.com/efficient-engines-thermodynamics-combustion-efficiency/  

Thrugelmir

benbay001 said:

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

To make an HGV pure electric would require a really high KWH battery.
Just going to do some rough maths, but a long distance artic lorry does 8mpg.
A driver is allowed to do 9 hours in a day, lets says 1 hour for lunch, so 8 hours on the road, at 45 mph on average.
360 miles per day, divided by 8mpg = 45gallons of fuel burnt in a day.
A gallon of diesel contains 49KWh of power.
So 49*45= 2205kwh of energy consumed.
The longest range Tesla is 100KWh.
Yes, its not quite apples for apples because a fair percentage of the diesel burnt is lost energy.
But still, its maybe going to need a range 10x the current largest capacity Tesla.
Edit - its more feasible for "delivery" lorries, but i imagine must fuel burnt is from long distance.

The battery and EV has undergone revolution driven by the demand and shortage, and tyet to be transformed into money. There are a lot of technological Breakthrough come to market such as Quantum Battery using oxide semiconductor. And There are already some companies doing that their share has been sky rocketing. Example Quantum Scape (QS), have a look how their share has been rising from their original IPO price of $10.

This is just one article, charging for sedan EV from Lucid Motor.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/19/21375308/lucid-motors-air-ev-charging-time-miles-minutes

“Lucid Motors announced that its forthcoming all-electric sedan, the Lucid Air, will be the “fastest charging electric vehicle ever offered.” The company claims the Air will have the capability to charge at rates of up to 20 miles per minute — which translates to 300 miles in about 20 minutes.

Lucid has not used Quantum Battery. Also, as I mentioned previously the charging station will be integrated to HV smart Grid using V2G managed by AI.

https://www.virta.global/vehicle-to-grid-v2g

EV Charging Stations could be built easily everywhere in the country sides as it could be tapped directly from HV grid. 

Another one that has also been going is a desing of vehicles with quick battery swapping allowing the EV battery to be swaped in just a few minutes.

When the money is there everyone will get motivated to grab it. That is where the breakthrough and technological revolution come in place.

(Not quite that bad due to being able to charge cars off peak etc)

No solar power available and the wind might not be blowing. There's many challenges to overcome to reach that point. The eventual solution isn't here yet. 

Bobziz

Thrugelmir said:

benbay001 said:

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

To make an HGV pure electric would require a really high KWH battery.
Just going to do some rough maths, but a long distance artic lorry does 8mpg.
A driver is allowed to do 9 hours in a day, lets says 1 hour for lunch, so 8 hours on the road, at 45 mph on average.
360 miles per day, divided by 8mpg = 45gallons of fuel burnt in a day.
A gallon of diesel contains 49KWh of power.
So 49*45= 2205kwh of energy consumed.
The longest range Tesla is 100KWh.
Yes, its not quite apples for apples because a fair percentage of the diesel burnt is lost energy.
But still, its maybe going to need a range 10x the current largest capacity Tesla.
Edit - its more feasible for "delivery" lorries, but i imagine must fuel burnt is from long distance.

The battery and EV has undergone revolution driven by the demand and shortage, and tyet to be transformed into money. There are a lot of technological Breakthrough come to market such as Quantum Battery using oxide semiconductor. And There are already some companies doing that their share has been sky rocketing. Example Quantum Scape (QS), have a look how their share has been rising from their original IPO price of $10.

This is just one article, charging for sedan EV from Lucid Motor.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/19/21375308/lucid-motors-air-ev-charging-time-miles-minutes

“Lucid Motors announced that its forthcoming all-electric sedan, the Lucid Air, will be the “fastest charging electric vehicle ever offered.” The company claims the Air will have the capability to charge at rates of up to 20 miles per minute — which translates to 300 miles in about 20 minutes.

Lucid has not used Quantum Battery. Also, as I mentioned previously the charging station will be integrated to HV smart Grid using V2G managed by AI.

https://www.virta.global/vehicle-to-grid-v2g

EV Charging Stations could be built easily everywhere in the country sides as it could be tapped directly from HV grid. 

Another one that has also been going is a desing of vehicles with quick battery swapping allowing the EV battery to be swaped in just a few minutes.

When the money is there everyone will get motivated to grab it. That is where the breakthrough and technological revolution come in place.

(Not quite that bad due to being able to charge cars off peak etc)

No solar power available and the wind might not be blowing. Let's many challenges to overcome to reach that point. The eventual solution isn't here yet. 

Kitchen scraps ?

benbay001

Superscrooge said:

benbay001 said:

I have just reran the maths and i was quite far out, but i still dont feel its plausible that the demand could be met by the current capacity.

The UK Burns:
16.2 bn litres of petrol 
30.3 bn litres of diesel
https://www.ukpra.co.uk/en/about/facts-and-figures#:~:text=The UK Retail Road Fuels Market 2019&text=Petrol - 16.2bn litres (Retail,- 9.5bn litres (Commercial)
A litre of diesel yields 3.3KWh of energy
https://www.sustainabilityexchange.ac.uk/files/cambridge_regional_college_sus_how_much_energy_do_you_use_pdf.pdf
so 30.3x 3.3 = 100GW
Petrol = 16.2x 2.75 = 44.55GW
Total = 144GW
That also assumed EVs are 100% efficient.

The article you linked to stated UK electricity consumption peaked in 2002 at 62GW, so more than double.
Maths and stats isnt my strong point, so im happy to be corrected.

Don't forget that fossil fuel engines are very inefficient. Some waste 80% of the energy produced during combustion of fuel according to the below.
https://rentar.com/efficient-engines-thermodynamics-combustion-efficiency/  

Thanks. I included the 30% efficiency for diesel and 25% for petrol in my calculations. 

Thrugelmir

benbay001 said:

Superscrooge said:

benbay001 said:

I have just reran the maths and i was quite far out, but i still dont feel its plausible that the demand could be met by the current capacity.

The UK Burns:
16.2 bn litres of petrol 
30.3 bn litres of diesel
https://www.ukpra.co.uk/en/about/facts-and-figures#:~:text=The UK Retail Road Fuels Market 2019&text=Petrol - 16.2bn litres (Retail,- 9.5bn litres (Commercial)
A litre of diesel yields 3.3KWh of energy
https://www.sustainabilityexchange.ac.uk/files/cambridge_regional_college_sus_how_much_energy_do_you_use_pdf.pdf
so 30.3x 3.3 = 100GW
Petrol = 16.2x 2.75 = 44.55GW
Total = 144GW
That also assumed EVs are 100% efficient.

The article you linked to stated UK electricity consumption peaked in 2002 at 62GW, so more than double.
Maths and stats isnt my strong point, so im happy to be corrected.

Don't forget that fossil fuel engines are very inefficient. Some waste 80% of the energy produced during combustion of fuel according to the below.
https://rentar.com/efficient-engines-thermodynamics-combustion-efficiency/  

Thanks. I included the 30% efficiency for diesel and 25% for petrol in my calculations. 

All Tesla's lose battery power when left idle. Around 1% a day. That 3 week annual holiday when the car is left at the airport will result in some 20% of the power being lost.