Suggestions for a speculative punt?

bowlhead99

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most.

I don't doubt that people who understand the market are more likely to make money than those who don't.  I do agree that most investors caught up by hype are following buzzwords because they have seen EV companies go 10x in value in a short space of time and want to jump onto the bandwagon, without having a deep understanding of the sector or what 'fair value' might actually be in the medium and long term.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

ALso look at how other EVsuch as NIO has performed.

The fact that you can look at Tesla or NIO and see that they went up in value and that Cathie Wood was right to back them at a lower valuation does not mean that investors in general speculating on the sector now are getting in for good prices or that the existing early-movers will maintain the first-mover advantage.

Electric cars seems a natural future progression. China have a clear plan that by 2025 20% of all cars will be EV. There is a huge demand on making the climate better.

Its been backed by the Chinese government also.

It looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth. Is it gonna turn the average joe into a millionaire if investing in the stock? No. But you could throw your money at worse things.

It's not in much doubt that the EV industry itself will grow and by 2025, 2035, 2045 there will be an increasing proportion of EV and decreasing proportion of petrol and diesel. So there will be lots of demand which means the industry revenue and profits will go up by a lot.  

But there's a difference between the industry making profits and investors making profits of course, especially if investors are backing multiple horses or the wrong horses.  For example, if Tesla made $330m of profits for their last reported quarter, out of about $9bn revenue, that's a pretty small margin but one that can grow over time if someone doesn't knock them off their spot. But if you wanted to buy a share, they are already priced on the expectation that the profits will grow dramatically when everything you hope to happen, happens.

The company is valued at about $800bn. So if it only kept making $330m every quarter (in real terms) it would take about 2400 quarters (600 years) to earn $800bn in today's money and pay back its investors.  Some of the investors who are seeing the share price rise 10x in the last year are thinking, 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I have seen people get 10x their money in1 year' - not 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I should get back at least 1x my money in 600 years'.   

Investors are guessing which companies they think will get to the top or stay at the top, and are having a punt on lots of them under a halo of some good performers that have had years of future growth already 'priced in' from a stock price perspective. Some of them will get burned if the optimistic forecasts don't come to fruition.  As Thrugelmir says, "Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets".

Some of the businesses will be broader than the production of electric vehicles and more generally make a boatload of money off battery tech or other tangential stuff. But loads of companies connected to cleantech or battery tech or electric vehicles are selling for high ratios to current profits. The idea that "it looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth" is baked into the price that you have to pay for a share of a company in such an industry.

Good read and post! 
Personally I'm invested in NIO. I hold a small amount of Tesla but I think Nio has some huge potential. And after all that's all we can ever back. The news coming from "the experts" and speaking to a few people in China about their opinions on NIO it seems that IF they can get another factory and production running smoothly they will sell tonnes of cars. A big IF but at around $40-45 a share it was a risk I thought was worth taking.

Regrettably I took some of my investment out of NIO at $14-20 after they had doubled-to-tripled over the space of two or three months I'd had them last summer (and they had already doubled in the quarter leading up to me buying them), so I felt I couldn't ignore the chance to take all my cost back; it was only a small investment anyway as my platform only offered it unwrapped. I will cash in some more to use up some CGT allowance; they are properly 'on the map' now so although there will probably still be some gains to come, not quite the same crazy rate of return.

Username999 said:

bowlhead99 said:

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah....

Are you "invested" in Tesla?

I'm "invested" via holding investment funds that have investments in Tesla, but not "invested" in any of their shares direct.

Thrugelmir

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most.

I don't doubt that people who understand the market are more likely to make money than those who don't.  I do agree that most investors caught up by hype are following buzzwords because they have seen EV companies go 10x in value in a short space of time and want to jump onto the bandwagon, without having a deep understanding of the sector or what 'fair value' might actually be in the medium and long term.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

ALso look at how other EVsuch as NIO has performed.

The fact that you can look at Tesla or NIO and see that they went up in value and that Cathie Wood was right to back them at a lower valuation does not mean that investors in general speculating on the sector now are getting in for good prices or that the existing early-movers will maintain the first-mover advantage.

Electric cars seems a natural future progression. China have a clear plan that by 2025 20% of all cars will be EV. There is a huge demand on making the climate better.

Its been backed by the Chinese government also.

It looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth. Is it gonna turn the average joe into a millionaire if investing in the stock? No. But you could throw your money at worse things.

It's not in much doubt that the EV industry itself will grow and by 2025, 2035, 2045 there will be an increasing proportion of EV and decreasing proportion of petrol and diesel. So there will be lots of demand which means the industry revenue and profits will go up by a lot.  

But there's a difference between the industry making profits and investors making profits of course, especially if investors are backing multiple horses or the wrong horses.  For example, if Tesla made $330m of profits for their last reported quarter, out of about $9bn revenue, that's a pretty small margin but one that can grow over time if someone doesn't knock them off their spot. But if you wanted to buy a share, they are already priced on the expectation that the profits will grow dramatically when everything you hope to happen, happens.

The company is valued at about $800bn. So if it only kept making $330m every quarter (in real terms) it would take about 2400 quarters (600 years) to earn $800bn in today's money and pay back its investors.  Some of the investors who are seeing the share price rise 10x in the last year are thinking, 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I have seen people get 10x their money in1 year' - not 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I should get back at least 1x my money in 600 years'.   

Investors are guessing which companies they think will get to the top or stay at the top, and are having a punt on lots of them under a halo of some good performers that have had years of future growth already 'priced in' from a stock price perspective. Some of them will get burned if the optimistic forecasts don't come to fruition.  As Thrugelmir says, "Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets".

Some of the businesses will be broader than the production of electric vehicles and more generally make a boatload of money off battery tech or other tangential stuff. But loads of companies connected to cleantech or battery tech or electric vehicles are selling for high ratios to current profits. The idea that "it looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth" is baked into the price that you have to pay for a share of a company in such an industry.

Good read and post! 
Personally I'm invested in NIO. I hold a small amount of Tesla but I think Nio has some huge potential. And after all that's all we can ever back. The news coming from "the experts" and speaking to a few people in China about their opinions on NIO it seems that IF they can get another factory and production running smoothly they will sell tonnes of cars. A big IF but at around $40-45 a share it was a risk I thought was worth taking.

As long as they conform to the rules and adhere to the CPP view of capitalism. Otherwise like Jack Ma. You simply disappear from view. 

adindas

The question sometimes come in this thread is why not buy the EV stock from a well-known company such as Mercedes, BMW, VW, Volvo, etc who have a track records of making cars, busses etc.

Well, these companies are good in making ICE car, Buses but there has not got a good track record in making an EV.

ICE and EV are two different things. The only comparatives advantages, these Ford or GM have, Mercedes, are having are making chassis/body/Interior. All other things are technologies, motors, sensors, Lidar, batteries, Control, AI, software. Also, it is a Different Business eco system and supply chain. They are too late to enter the market and therefore difficult to compete in price. Keep mind all of that is securing supply from other suppliers, none of these traditional car makers could make their own batteries, motors, sensors/lidar, Control, AI, software and other technologies without acquiring other companies.  

To give you some examples when London Bus, or National Bus want to buy their EV buses renewing their fleets where do you think they go, do they go to Volvo a well know bus makers? . Nope, they bought it from BYD Europe and Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL).

https://www.evbus.co.uk/

It is because Volvo cannot make an EV bus that will meet their specification in time. BYD are Chinese EV buses companies, Warren Buffet have share on his Chinese companies.

Similarly to Amazon, or other courier such as FedEx UPS when renewing their fleets where did they get their vehicles, is it from Mercedes, Volvo ? Nope they got it from an EV companies you probably never heard of.

Another examples, to renew their fleets, US postal services (USPS) have announced. Who meet the requirement for tender,  It is Workhorse, Oskosh&Ford, Karsan & Morgan Olson. Most companies are probably the companies you never heard of. Even Ford will need to work together with Oskosk as the main tenderer.

So, it fallacy to think that if they are good in making ICE they are will be good in making EV.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

The question sometimes come in this thread is why not buy the EV stock from a well-known company such as Mercedes, BMW, VW, Volvo, etc who have a track records of making cars, busses etc.

Well, these companies are good in making ICE car, Buses but there has not got a good track record in making an EV.

ICE and EV are two different things. The only comparatives advantages, these Ford or GM have, Mercedes, are having are making chassis/body/Interior. All other things are technologies, motors, sensors, Lidar, batteries, Control, AI, software. Also, it is a Different Business eco system and supply chain. They are too late to enter the market and therefore difficult to compete in price. Keep mind all of that is securing supply from other suppliers, none of these traditional car makers could make their own batteries, motors, sensors/lidar, Control, AI, software and other technologies without acquiring other companies.  

To give you some examples when London Bus, or National Bus want to buy their EV buses renewing their fleets where do you think they go, do they go to Volvo a well know bus makers? . Nope, they bought it from BYD Europe and Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL). It implies because Volvo cannot make a bus that will meet their specification in time. BYD are Chinese EV buses companies, Warren Buffet have share on his Chinese companies.

Similarly to Amazon, or other courier such as FedEx UPS when renewing their fleets where did they get their vehicles, is it from Mercedes, Volvo ? Nope they got it from an EV companies you probably never heard of.

Another examples, to renew their fleets, US postal services (USPS) have announced. Who meet the requirement for tender,  It is Workhorse, Oskosh&Ford, Karsan & Morgan Olson. Most companies are probably the companies you never heard of. Even Ford will need to work together with Oskosk as the main tenderer.

So, it fallacy to think that if they are good in making ICE they are will be good in making EV.

Which manufacturer produced the top selling EV in Europe in 2020? 

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

The question sometimes come in this thread is why not buy the EV stock from a well-known company such as Mercedes, BMW, VW, Volvo, etc who have a track records of making cars, busses etc.

Well, these companies are good in making ICE car, Buses but there has not got a good track record in making an EV.

ICE and EV are two different things. The only comparatives advantages, these Ford or GM have, Mercedes, are having are making chassis/body/Interior. All other things are technologies, motors, sensors, Lidar, batteries, Control, AI, software. Also, it is a Different Business eco system and supply chain. They are too late to enter the market and therefore difficult to compete in price. Keep mind all of that is securing supply from other suppliers, none of these traditional car makers could make their own batteries, motors, sensors/lidar, Control, AI, software and other technologies without acquiring other companies.  

To give you some examples when London Bus, or National Bus want to buy their EV buses renewing their fleets where do you think they go, do they go to Volvo a well know bus makers? . Nope, they bought it from BYD Europe and Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL). It implies because Volvo cannot make a bus that will meet their specification in time. BYD are Chinese EV buses companies, Warren Buffet have share on his Chinese companies.

Similarly to Amazon, or other courier such as FedEx UPS when renewing their fleets where did they get their vehicles, is it from Mercedes, Volvo ? Nope they got it from an EV companies you probably never heard of.

Another examples, to renew their fleets, US postal services (USPS) have announced. Who meet the requirement for tender,  It is Workhorse, Oskosh&Ford, Karsan & Morgan Olson. Most companies are probably the companies you never heard of. Even Ford will need to work together with Oskosk as the main tenderer.

So, it fallacy to think that if they are good in making ICE they are will be good in making EV.

Which manufacturer produced the top selling EV in Europe in 2020? 

I know it is VW, recently Renault. But this was before other chinese EV makers flooding the EU market.

Where is the largest EV market in the word is it EU ? Could VW/Renault compete with chinese EV makers in China and Asia ?

Also other things EV is not just car, what about buses, Trucks, lorries, power trains ?

Username999

Tesla shouldn't really be mentioned in this thread.
You've missed the boat, sorry.
Abit like saying Halfords or Pets at Home or any of the hundreds of stocks that have 5x over the last 12 months.
Bitcoin/Ethereum etc,. you've missed the boat...
What is a decent PUNT from NOW? 

Username999

Did you know you can PRINT a house?

Username999

I've got £50K waiting for a decent punt...
Suggests please.

Username999

bowlhead99 said:

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most.

I don't doubt that people who understand the market are more likely to make money than those who don't.  I do agree that most investors caught up by hype are following buzzwords because they have seen EV companies go 10x in value in a short space of time and want to jump onto the bandwagon, without having a deep understanding of the sector or what 'fair value' might actually be in the medium and long term.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

ALso look at how other EVsuch as NIO has performed.

The fact that you can look at Tesla or NIO and see that they went up in value and that Cathie Wood was right to back them at a lower valuation does not mean that investors in general speculating on the sector now are getting in for good prices or that the existing early-movers will maintain the first-mover advantage.

Electric cars seems a natural future progression. China have a clear plan that by 2025 20% of all cars will be EV. There is a huge demand on making the climate better.

Its been backed by the Chinese government also.

It looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth. Is it gonna turn the average joe into a millionaire if investing in the stock? No. But you could throw your money at worse things.

It's not in much doubt that the EV industry itself will grow and by 2025, 2035, 2045 there will be an increasing proportion of EV and decreasing proportion of petrol and diesel. So there will be lots of demand which means the industry revenue and profits will go up by a lot.  

But there's a difference between the industry making profits and investors making profits of course, especially if investors are backing multiple horses or the wrong horses.  For example, if Tesla made $330m of profits for their last reported quarter, out of about $9bn revenue, that's a pretty small margin but one that can grow over time if someone doesn't knock them off their spot. But if you wanted to buy a share, they are already priced on the expectation that the profits will grow dramatically when everything you hope to happen, happens.

The company is valued at about $800bn. So if it only kept making $330m every quarter (in real terms) it would take about 2400 quarters (600 years) to earn $800bn in today's money and pay back its investors.  Some of the investors who are seeing the share price rise 10x in the last year are thinking, 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I have seen people get 10x their money in1 year' - not 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I should get back at least 1x my money in 600 years'.   

Investors are guessing which companies they think will get to the top or stay at the top, and are having a punt on lots of them under a halo of some good performers that have had years of future growth already 'priced in' from a stock price perspective. Some of them will get burned if the optimistic forecasts don't come to fruition.  As Thrugelmir says, "Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets".

Some of the businesses will be broader than the production of electric vehicles and more generally make a boatload of money off battery tech or other tangential stuff. But loads of companies connected to cleantech or battery tech or electric vehicles are selling for high ratios to current profits. The idea that "it looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth" is baked into the price that you have to pay for a share of a company in such an industry.

Good read and post! 
Personally I'm invested in NIO. I hold a small amount of Tesla but I think Nio has some huge potential. And after all that's all we can ever back. The news coming from "the experts" and speaking to a few people in China about their opinions on NIO it seems that IF they can get another factory and production running smoothly they will sell tonnes of cars. A big IF but at around $40-45 a share it was a risk I thought was worth taking.

Regrettably I took some of my investment out of NIO at $14-20 after they had doubled-to-tripled over the space of two or three months I'd had them last summer (and they had already doubled in the quarter leading up to me buying them), so I felt I couldn't ignore the chance to take all my cost back; it was only a small investment anyway as my platform only offered it unwrapped. I will cash in some more to use up some CGT allowance; they are properly 'on the map' now so although there will probably still be some gains to come, not quite the same crazy rate of return.

Username999 said:

bowlhead99 said:

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah....

Are you "invested" in Tesla?

I'm "invested" via holding investment funds that have investments in Tesla, but not "invested" in any of their shares direct.

Yawn, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

benbay001

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

The question sometimes come in this thread is why not buy the EV stock from a well-known company such as Mercedes, BMW, VW, Volvo, etc who have a track records of making cars, busses etc.

Well, these companies are good in making ICE car, Buses but there has not got a good track record in making an EV.

ICE and EV are two different things. The only comparatives advantages, these Ford or GM have, Mercedes, are having are making chassis/body/Interior. All other things are technologies, motors, sensors, Lidar, batteries, Control, AI, software. Also, it is a Different Business eco system and supply chain. They are too late to enter the market and therefore difficult to compete in price. Keep mind all of that is securing supply from other suppliers, none of these traditional car makers could make their own batteries, motors, sensors/lidar, Control, AI, software and other technologies without acquiring other companies.  

To give you some examples when London Bus, or National Bus want to buy their EV buses renewing their fleets where do you think they go, do they go to Volvo a well know bus makers? . Nope, they bought it from BYD Europe and Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL). It implies because Volvo cannot make a bus that will meet their specification in time. BYD are Chinese EV buses companies, Warren Buffet have share on his Chinese companies.

Similarly to Amazon, or other courier such as FedEx UPS when renewing their fleets where did they get their vehicles, is it from Mercedes, Volvo ? Nope they got it from an EV companies you probably never heard of.

Another examples, to renew their fleets, US postal services (USPS) have announced. Who meet the requirement for tender,  It is Workhorse, Oskosh&Ford, Karsan & Morgan Olson. Most companies are probably the companies you never heard of. Even Ford will need to work together with Oskosk as the main tenderer.

So, it fallacy to think that if they are good in making ICE they are will be good in making EV.

Which manufacturer produced the top selling EV in Europe in 2020? 

I know it is VW, recently Renault. But this was before other chinese EV makers flooding the EU market.

Where is the largest EV market in the word is it EU ? Could VW/Renault compete with chinese EV makers in China and Asia ?

Also other things EV is not just car, what about buses, Trucks, lorries, power trains ?

Toyota make the most seamless hybrids in the world.
Its a whole lot harder to make a car that can transitions from ICE to EV and then back again, than it is to make a pure EV.
The difficulty is giving it a good range. 
Tesla have this licked, but then they are valued in such a way that they are worth than all other car manufacturers combined (if i heard it right the other week).
Tesla are currently valued in such a way that even if they achieve phenomenal sales growth and profit margins, even in 10 years, with no change from todays shareprice, they will still be at a crazy P/E.
You are also taking a risky bet that none of the incumbents come out with a better tech in that 10 years(not a bet i would like to make).
Its also the case that alot of people buy Teslas over the competitors because they are novel. This wont be the case if one in every 3 cars is a Tesla.
Just because a company is a good company, does not mean its a good investment.