Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

benbay001 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

The question sometimes come in this thread is why not buy the EV stock from a well-known company such as Mercedes, BMW, VW, Volvo, etc who have a track records of making cars, busses etc.

Well, these companies are good in making ICE car, Buses but there has not got a good track record in making an EV.

ICE and EV are two different things. The only comparatives advantages, these Ford or GM have, Mercedes, are having are making chassis/body/Interior. All other things are technologies, motors, sensors, Lidar, batteries, Control, AI, software. Also, it is a Different Business eco system and supply chain. They are too late to enter the market and therefore difficult to compete in price. Keep mind all of that is securing supply from other suppliers, none of these traditional car makers could make their own batteries, motors, sensors/lidar, Control, AI, software and other technologies without acquiring other companies.  

To give you some examples when London Bus, or National Bus want to buy their EV buses renewing their fleets where do you think they go, do they go to Volvo a well know bus makers? . Nope, they bought it from BYD Europe and Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL). It implies because Volvo cannot make a bus that will meet their specification in time. BYD are Chinese EV buses companies, Warren Buffet have share on his Chinese companies.

Similarly to Amazon, or other courier such as FedEx UPS when renewing their fleets where did they get their vehicles, is it from Mercedes, Volvo ? Nope they got it from an EV companies you probably never heard of.

Another examples, to renew their fleets, US postal services (USPS) have announced. Who meet the requirement for tender,  It is Workhorse, Oskosh&Ford, Karsan & Morgan Olson. Most companies are probably the companies you never heard of. Even Ford will need to work together with Oskosk as the main tenderer.

So, it fallacy to think that if they are good in making ICE they are will be good in making EV.

Which manufacturer produced the top selling EV in Europe in 2020? 

I know it is VW, recently Renault. But this was before other chinese EV makers flooding the EU market.

Where is the largest EV market in the word is it EU ? Could VW/Renault compete with chinese EV makers in China and Asia ?

Also other things EV is not just car, what about buses, Trucks, lorries, power trains ?

Toyota make the most seamless hybrids in the world.
Its a whole lot harder to make a car that can transitions from ICE to EV and then back again, than it is to make a pure EV.
The difficulty is giving it a good range. 
Tesla have this licked, but then they are valued in such a way that they are worth than all other car manufacturers combined (if i heard it right the other week).
Tesla are currently valued in such a way that even if they achieve phenomenal sales growth and profit margins, even in 10 years, with no change from todays shareprice, they will still be at a crazy P/E.
You are also taking a risky bet that none of the incumbents come out with a better tech in that 10 years(not a bet i would like to make).
Its also the case that alot of people buy Teslas over the competitors because they are novel. This wont be the case if one in every 3 cars is a Tesla.
Just because a company is a good company, does not mean its a good investment.

It might be true, but the problem with Hybrid cars is just to add complexity unnecessarily. That is the one people would want to avoid in the first instance. Think about transmission complex gear and other components that you want to remove when going electric. Also why the people go electric, because the research show that EV is cheaper in term of the fuel cost in the long run especially if all of the grid managed by AI is already widely availble. Think about V2G, the cost of PV panels, batteries are becoming cheaper and cheaper.

Also, hybrid vehicles might not pass the emission test in the future. It might meet the requirement if the fuel come from the renewable sources such as Hydrogen. But pure electric is cheaper than hydrogen fuel. Also think about the infrastuctured needed for the hydrogen fuel stations network.

Hybrid vehicles might be good for very expensive commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks, lorries to meet the regulatory requirement. Also because they have a lof of spaces to put EV component and ICE powered by renewable resources together. Also it could benefit from advacement from both EV and renewable resources.

But Because these vehicles are very expensive, it is highly unlikely the owners of the business will be able to renew their fleets in a short period where they have been forced to do that due to the regulation requirement.

The most practical way of doing that with a fractional cost of buying the new one e.g by removing the ICE component and replace it with a low-profile platform equiped with power train as a prime mover. So it is still pure electric rather than hybrid. There are already some companies doing this power train businesses.

csgohan4

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

The question sometimes come in this thread is why not buy the EV stock from a well-known company such as Mercedes, BMW, VW, Volvo, etc who have a track records of making cars, busses etc.

Well, these companies are good in making ICE car, Buses but there has not got a good track record in making an EV.

ICE and EV are two different things. The only comparatives advantages, these Ford or GM have, Mercedes, are having are making chassis/body/Interior. All other things are technologies, motors, sensors, Lidar, batteries, Control, AI, software. Also, it is a Different Business eco system and supply chain. They are too late to enter the market and therefore difficult to compete in price. Keep mind all of that is securing supply from other suppliers, none of these traditional car makers could make their own batteries, motors, sensors/lidar, Control, AI, software and other technologies without acquiring other companies.  

To give you some examples when London Bus, or National Bus want to buy their EV buses renewing their fleets where do you think they go, do they go to Volvo a well know bus makers? . Nope, they bought it from BYD Europe and Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL). It implies because Volvo cannot make a bus that will meet their specification in time. BYD are Chinese EV buses companies, Warren Buffet have share on his Chinese companies.

Similarly to Amazon, or other courier such as FedEx UPS when renewing their fleets where did they get their vehicles, is it from Mercedes, Volvo ? Nope they got it from an EV companies you probably never heard of.

Another examples, to renew their fleets, US postal services (USPS) have announced. Who meet the requirement for tender,  It is Workhorse, Oskosh&Ford, Karsan & Morgan Olson. Most companies are probably the companies you never heard of. Even Ford will need to work together with Oskosk as the main tenderer.

So, it fallacy to think that if they are good in making ICE they are will be good in making EV.

Which manufacturer produced the top selling EV in Europe in 2020? 

I know it is VW, recently Renault. But this was before other chinese EV makers flooding the EU market.

Where is the largest EV market in the word is it EU ? Could VW/Renault compete with chinese EV makers in China and Asia ?

Also other things EV is not just car, what about buses, Trucks, lorries, power trains ?

Toyota make the most seamless hybrids in the world.
Its a whole lot harder to make a car that can transitions from ICE to EV and then back again, than it is to make a pure EV.
The difficulty is giving it a good range. 
Tesla have this licked, but then they are valued in such a way that they are worth than all other car manufacturers combined (if i heard it right the other week).
Tesla are currently valued in such a way that even if they achieve phenomenal sales growth and profit margins, even in 10 years, with no change from todays shareprice, they will still be at a crazy P/E.
You are also taking a risky bet that none of the incumbents come out with a better tech in that 10 years(not a bet i would like to make).
Its also the case that alot of people buy Teslas over the competitors because they are novel. This wont be the case if one in every 3 cars is a Tesla.
Just because a company is a good company, does not mean its a good investment.

It might be true, but the problem with Hybrid cars is just to add complexity unnecessarily. That is the one people would want to avoid in the first instance. Think about transmission complex gear and other components that you want to remove when going electric.

Also, it might not pass the emission test in the future.

Hybrid vehicles might be good for very expensive commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks, lorries. Because these vehicles are very expensive, it is highly unlikely the owners of the business will be able to renew their fleets in a short period where they have been forced to do that due to the regulation requirement.

But it seems there is more practical way of doing that with a fractional cost of buying the new one e.g by removing the ICE component and replace it with a low-profile platform equiped with power train as a prime mover. There are already some companies doing this business.

Sadly Nikola tried and failed with this venture

benbay001

To make an HGV pure electric would require a really high KWH battery.
Just going to do some rough maths, but a long distance artic lorry does 8mpg.
A driver is allowed to do 9 hours in a day, lets says 1 hour for lunch, so 8 hours on the road, at 45 mph on average.
360 miles per day, divided by 8mpg = 45gallons of fuel burnt in a day.
A gallon of diesel contains 49KWh of power.
So 49*45= 2205kwh of energy consumed.
The longest range Tesla is 100KWh.
Yes, its not quite apples for apples because a fair percentage of the diesel burnt is lost energy.
But still, its maybe going to need a range 10x the current largest capacity Tesla.
Edit - its more feasible for "delivery" lorries, but i imagine must fuel burnt is from long distance.

adindas

benbay001 said:

To make an HGV pure electric would require a really high KWH battery.
Just going to do some rough maths, but a long distance artic lorry does 8mpg.
A driver is allowed to do 9 hours in a day, lets says 1 hour for lunch, so 8 hours on the road, at 45 mph on average.
360 miles per day, divided by 8mpg = 45gallons of fuel burnt in a day.
A gallon of diesel contains 49KWh of power.
So 49*45= 2205kwh of energy consumed.
The longest range Tesla is 100KWh.
Yes, its not quite apples for apples because a fair percentage of the diesel burnt is lost energy.
But still, its maybe going to need a range 10x the current largest capacity Tesla.
Edit - its more feasible for "delivery" lorries, but i imagine must fuel burnt is from long distance.

The battery and EV has undergone revolution driven by the demand and shortage, and tyet to be transformed into money. There are a lot of technological Breakthrough come to market such as Quantum Battery using oxide semiconductor. And There are already some companies doing that their share has been sky rocketing. Example Quantum Scape (QS), have a look how their share has been rising from their original IPO price of $10.

This is just one article, charging for sedan EV from Lucid Motor.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/19/21375308/lucid-motors-air-ev-charging-time-miles-minutes

“Lucid Motors announced that its forthcoming all-electric sedan, the Lucid Air, will be the “fastest charging electric vehicle ever offered.” The company claims the Air will have the capability to charge at rates of up to 20 miles per minute — which translates to 300 miles in about 20 minutes.

Lucid has not used Quantum Battery. Also, as I mentioned previously the charging station will be integrated to HV smart Grid using V2G managed by AI.

https://www.virta.global/vehicle-to-grid-v2g

EV Charging Stations could be built easily everywhere in the country sides as it could be tapped directly from HV grid. 

Another one that has also been going is a desing of vehicles with quick battery swapping allowing the EV battery to be swaped in just a few minutes.

When the money is there everyone will get motivated to grab it. That is where the breakthrough and technological revolution come in place.

BrockStoker

@adindas not sure if you noticed it (posted it in my own thread), but Gritstone might be of interest to you:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRTS?p=GRTS

adindas

Thanks will have a look of it

BrockStoker

adindas said:

Thanks will have a look of it

This is what originally attracted me to Gritstone:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gritstone-posts-one-most-potent-immunogenic-responses-for-a-neoantigen-vaccine

It's not just a covid stock.

Moe_The_Bartender

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

To make an HGV pure electric would require a really high KWH battery.
Just going to do some rough maths, but a long distance artic lorry does 8mpg.
A driver is allowed to do 9 hours in a day, lets says 1 hour for lunch, so 8 hours on the road, at 45 mph on average.
360 miles per day, divided by 8mpg = 45gallons of fuel burnt in a day.
A gallon of diesel contains 49KWh of power.
So 49*45= 2205kwh of energy consumed.
The longest range Tesla is 100KWh.
Yes, its not quite apples for apples because a fair percentage of the diesel burnt is lost energy.
But still, its maybe going to need a range 10x the current largest capacity Tesla.
Edit - its more feasible for "delivery" lorries, but i imagine must fuel burnt is from long distance.

The battery and EV has undergone revolution driven by the demand and shortage, and thus to be trasnformed to money. There are a lot of technological Breakthrough come to market such as Quantum Battery using oxide semiconductor. And There are already some companies doing that their share has been sky rocketing. Example Quantum Scape (QS), have a look how their share has been rising from their original IPO price of $10.

This is just one article, charging for sedan EV from Lucid Motor.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/19/21375308/lucid-motors-air-ev-charging-time-miles-minutes

“Lucid Motors announced that its forthcoming all-electric sedan, the Lucid Air, will be the “fastest charging electric vehicle ever offered.” The company claims the Air will have the capability to charge at rates of up to 20 miles per minute — which translates to 300 miles in about 20 minutes.

Lucid has not used Quantum Battery. Also, as I mentioned previously the charging station will be integrated to HV smart Grid using V2G managed by AI.

https://www.virta.global/vehicle-to-grid-v2g

EV Charging Stations could be built easily everywhere in the country sides as it could be tapped directly from HV grid. When the money is there everyone will get motivated to grab it. That is where the breakthrough and technological revolution come in place.

QS has gone from $25 to $132 and back to $52 in a very short time. It has a cap of nearly $20bn but no product and no revenues. 

If you want a punt on charging stations, SBE is where it’s at.

adindas

Moe_The_Bartender said:

QS has gone from $25 to $132 and back to $52 in a very short time. It has a cap of nearly $20bn but no product and no revenues. 

If you want a punt on charging stations, SBE is where it’s at.

Indeed, but there are still some charging stations stock other than SBE/Charge point. As far as I know SBE/Charge point have one of the largest (if not the largest) charging network.  Another example is  Blink Charging (BLK) which has also making run.

When you buy a stock, which is going public through SPAC, it is important to divide it into two different phase; Before the merger (or could also be short period after the merger date) that is trading phase. After ticker symbol has changed, that is the the investment phase. Also, it is important to understand the SPAC lifecycle. Quantum scape is brought to public using SPAC vehicle managed by Kensington Capital Acquisition (KCAC) SPAC. KCAC is on of the good managed SPAc as they managed the raise price from $10 to $52 (Thus market cap of the company). But more impotant point is to maximise your profit. If you could get it better than 5.2x by trading it before ticker symbol has changed, why not.

The floor price of the SPAC is $10. I myself hardly ever buy a SPACs after the price making a run $15+. The only exception is if it I see it as a blockbuster SPAC, expecting to run much higher than $30+ before the merger date.

As I previously mention, the key here is to be ahead of the game by identifying the SPAC in their infancies with a good management and track record of bringing the companies together with relatively high Trust Value (e.g., Market Cap), so the chance is they are merging with unicorn, not mickey mouse companies. When they have one $1 billion (say) trust value, they will refuse to merge with a mickey mouse companies with much lower marker caps which are likely to fail. If the companies managing the SPAC fail, their reputation will be tainted and acute investors, will not trust them again in their next SPAC.

Close to the merging date (or short after the merging date) you could always sell your stock and again re-enter later when the ticker symbol has changed and you believe in the company. But this time is for long term investment, like your any other stocks for long term investment. It is no langer a SPAC play.

This Guy is the King of SPAc and could make you a lot of profit.

adindas

As Anticipated the BioNano (BNGO) stock price plunged due to Stock public offering

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/01/20/2161341/0/en/Bionano-Genomics-Announces-Pricing-of-200-Million-Underwritten-Public-Offering-of-Common-Stock.html

Many people who do not get used to with individual stock investing will get scared with 10% fall in a day. Without good understanding what make the price fall, some people get panicking and start selling it.

I got it at much lower price so still green even after stock offering. Instead of selling it I have topped top up my position.