Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

I know there are quite people in this threat still is still arguingthat the traditional well-established car makers such as Ford, Daimler-Benz, GE have the upper hand in making an EVs.

In the past I have shown a few links showing that a small EV companies have won tender against the traditional well-established car makers in making an EV for government contracts, couriers such as Amazon, UPS, FeDex, etc.

This is another news that I just saw Electric bus maker Proterra secures $155 million investment led by Daimler.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/19/electric-bus-maker-proterra-investment-daimler/

Daimler will need to do partnership with “Proterra” an EV company you probably never heard of.  Otherwise, they will be lacking behind. In the future these old the traditional well-established car makers will have to acquire a small company to leapfrog their laggards

VAG this week reported a profit of €10 billion for 2020.  Yet Tesla has a market cap of 8 times of VAG .  How long before Tesla makes €80 billion a year profit? 

Does any of current Tesla revenue come from Traditional ICE vehicles such as Volkswagen do?

It is fallacy to compare the profitability of an old well established companies with growth technology companies. Growth companies are focusing in reinvesting the profit to grow the companies. They even need to offer share to raise more capital.

You will need to see the revenue prediction and how many vehicles they will produce in the next coming years. Also the revenue from other businesses under their business ecosystem.

The most important things is to the recognise EV car making is just, a small fraction of Tesla business revenue in the future Their Business ecosystem will involve  financing, Solar Energy, Charging, commercial fleets, driverless taxi to compete with uber, Apple  cars. This article is just one example explaining Tesla Business Model.

https://www.garyfox.co/tesla-business-model/

You do not want to make the same mistale similar to what wallstreet Analysts were making when doing valuation of Tesla in the past, comparing  Tesla with traditional car makers making an EV. Ordinanry investors do a better job by nor believing in them and keep investing in Tesla when I was $800+ (before 1-5 Split, so it is now fivefold) even the analyst prediction at that time was $200, But at least majority of them have admitted that mistake and making correction.

BrockStoker

adindas said:

"The number one barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles is no longer cost, it is range anxiety,”said Doron Myersdorf, CEO of StoreDot. “You’re either afraid that you’re going to get stuck on the highway or you’re going to need to sit in a charging station for two hours. But if the experience of the driver is exactly like fuelling [a petrol car], this whole anxiety goes away.”

I can only speak for myself here, but while range anxiety/lack of charging infrastructure is an issue, the biggest issue for me is "how many years do I get out of a battery?/how much a replacement costs".

I bought my current car around 2008 for about £5K in used condition. So that's over 12 years of use for £5K. In the case of EV's, there's no way I could pay that kind of money and get 12 years of use, so until things change in a big way, I'm reluctant to move to EV's, unless forced to. While I'd like to be greener, there's no way I'm blowing 15-20K every decade.

Also there is the issue of overall lifespan. A normal car like I have can easily last two decades, while an EV probably gets replaced 7-10 years I guess, which does not sound very green or sustainable to me, although I guess lack of emissions produced while using it somewhat makes up for this.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way.

adindas

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

"The number one barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles is no longer cost, it is range anxiety,”said Doron Myersdorf, CEO of StoreDot. “You’re either afraid that you’re going to get stuck on the highway or you’re going to need to sit in a charging station for two hours. But if the experience of the driver is exactly like fuelling [a petrol car], this whole anxiety goes away.”

I can only speak for myself here, but while range anxiety/lack of charging infrastructure is an issue, the biggest issue for me is "how many years do I get out of a battery?/how much a replacement costs".

I bought my current car around 2008 for about £5K in used condition. So that's over 12 years of use for £5K. In the case of EV's, there's no way I could pay that kind of money and get 12 years of use, so until things change in a big way, I'm reluctant to move to EV's, unless forced to. While I'd like to be greener, there's no way I'm blowing 15-20K every decade.

Also there is the issue of overall lifespan. A normal car like I have can easily last two decades, while an EV probably gets replaced 7-10 years I guess, which does not sound very green or sustainable to me, although I guess lack of emissions produced while using it somewhat makes up for this.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way.

You will have to if the regulaiton force you to do that. I posted the link previously about the NewYork city requirement. China will follow, and other cties around the world will follow. Also do not forget about the levy the government might enforce.

Bobziz

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

"The number one barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles is no longer cost, it is range anxiety,”said Doron Myersdorf, CEO of StoreDot. “You’re either afraid that you’re going to get stuck on the highway or you’re going to need to sit in a charging station for two hours. But if the experience of the driver is exactly like fuelling [a petrol car], this whole anxiety goes away.”

I can only speak for myself here, but while range anxiety/lack of charging infrastructure is an issue, the biggest issue for me is "how many years do I get out of a battery?/how much a replacement costs".

I bought my current car around 2008 for about £5K in used condition. So that's over 12 years of use for £5K. In the case of EV's, there's no way I could pay that kind of money and get 12 years of use, so until things change in a big way, I'm reluctant to move to EV's, unless forced to. While I'd like to be greener, there's no way I'm blowing 15-20K every decade.

Also there is the issue of overall lifespan. A normal car like I have can easily last two decades, while an EV probably gets replaced 7-10 years I guess, which does not sound very green or sustainable to me, although I guess lack of emissions produced while using it somewhat makes up for this.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Why would you need to replace the entire EV after 7-10 years ? The batteries on a Tesla are guaranteed for 8 years and unlimited mileage. 

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

I know there are quite people in this threat still is still arguingthat the traditional well-established car makers such as Ford, Daimler-Benz, GE have the upper hand in making an EVs.

In the past I have shown a few links showing that a small EV companies have won tender against the traditional well-established car makers in making an EV for government contracts, couriers such as Amazon, UPS, FeDex, etc.

This is another news that I just saw Electric bus maker Proterra secures $155 million investment led by Daimler.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/19/electric-bus-maker-proterra-investment-daimler/

Daimler will need to do partnership with “Proterra” an EV company you probably never heard of.  Otherwise, they will be lacking behind. In the future these old the traditional well-established car makers will have to acquire a small company to leapfrog their laggards

VAG this week reported a profit of €10 billion for 2020.  Yet Tesla has a market cap of 8 times of VAG .  How long before Tesla makes €80 billion a year profit? 

Does any of current Tesla revenue come from Traditional ICE vehicles such as Volkswagen do?

It is fallacy to compare the profitability of an old well established companies with growth technology companies. Growth companies are focusing in reinvesting the profit to grow the companies. They even need to offer share to raise more capital.

You will need to see the revenue prediction and how many vehicles they will produce in the next coming years. Also the revenue from other businesses under their business ecosystem.

The most important things is to the recognise EV car making is just, a small fraction of Tesla business revenue in the future Their Business ecosystem will involve  financing, Solar Energy, Charging, commercial fleets, driverless taxi to compete with uber, Apple  cars. This article is just one example explaining Tesla Business Model.

https://www.garyfox.co/tesla-business-model/

You do not want to make the same mistale similar to what wallstreet Analysts were making when doing valuation of Tesla in the past, comparing  Tesla with traditional car makers making an EV. Ordinanry investors do a better job by nor believing in them and keep investing in Tesla when I was $800+ (before 1-5 Split, so it is now fivefold) even the analyst prediction at that time was $200, But at least majority of them have admitted that mistake and making correction.

You didn't actually answer my question. Dot Com boom all over again. Detachment from reality.  Revenue is not profit.  

NottinghamKnight

BrockStoker said:

adindas said:

"The number one barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles is no longer cost, it is range anxiety,”said Doron Myersdorf, CEO of StoreDot. “You’re either afraid that you’re going to get stuck on the highway or you’re going to need to sit in a charging station for two hours. But if the experience of the driver is exactly like fuelling [a petrol car], this whole anxiety goes away.”

I can only speak for myself here, but while range anxiety/lack of charging infrastructure is an issue, the biggest issue for me is "how many years do I get out of a battery?/how much a replacement costs".

I bought my current car around 2008 for about £5K in used condition. So that's over 12 years of use for £5K. In the case of EV's, there's no way I could pay that kind of money and get 12 years of use, so until things change in a big way, I'm reluctant to move to EV's, unless forced to. While I'd like to be greener, there's no way I'm blowing 15-20K every decade.

Also there is the issue of overall lifespan. A normal car like I have can easily last two decades, while an EV probably gets replaced 7-10 years I guess, which does not sound very green or sustainable to me, although I guess lack of emissions produced while using it somewhat makes up for this.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Your  mileage as well as typical journey will be very relevant here, a relatively cheap second hand car being run for another 12 years suggest low annual mileage. Capital costs are still significant but will reduce for EVs and won't be appropriate for everyone, I think that is key as different problems require different solution. If you are a rep on the motorway then a diesel still makes a lot of sense. EV maintenance costs should be far lower than ICE and battery life seems to be better than anticipated but obviously a small sample that has long term data. Lifetime costs and impacts are critical and also it needs to be acknowledged that it won;t be efficient for everyone to bin their current vehicle and replace with EV even if there were enough available, this will be evolution not revolution. Also expect taxation of ICE to increase both in terms of 'car tax'but also tax on fuels.

BrockStoker

If I were to buy a used EV then:

Initial purchase: 5k

Replacement battery after 4 years: 8k?

Replacement battery after a further 8 years: 7k?

So about 20K for 20 years. The numbers would probably be worse if I bought a new EV to begin with.

I think I can get about 20 years out of my current car for 5K, and since I do not drive all the time, fuel costs probably would not add more than another 1 or 2K over that time I would guess.

The difference is significant. Having said that, if my investments do well, then I could probably stomach the cost of an EV in 5-10 years time.

mark55man

if only there were threads on Tesla and EV

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

You didn't actually answer my question. Dot Com boom all over again. Detachment from reality.  Revenue is not profit.  

What is more important for you as an investor, the company makes profit or you make profit ? Each to their own but to me I choose the latter.

Many of tech companies  that you see has turned to become a monster today was not profitable many years ago. They have grown up like an octopus money multipliers

NottinghamKnight

BrockStoker said:

If I were to buy a used EV then:

Initial purchase: 5k

Replacement battery after 4 years: 8k?

Replacement battery after a further 8 years: 7k?

So about 20K for 20 years. The numbers would probably be worse if I bought a new EV to begin with.

I think I can get about 20 years out of my current car for 5K, and since I do not drive all the time, fuel costs probably would not add more than another 1 or 2K over that time I would guess.

The difference is significant. Having said that, if my investments do well, then I could probably stomach the cost of an EV in 5-10 years time.

Not sure where you get those numbers from (made up?), anecdotally on these forums batteries are reported as losing maybe 1-2% a year or so, can't see a battery being replaced in most circumstances more than once a decade, by which time it is questionable whether is economic - the consensus on the motoring forum is that 14 years is the typical lifespan of a car by the way. 
You haven't stated you mileage again but it must be miniscule, far fewer parts on an EV to go wrong and maintenance of an older ICE car can get very expensive/ uneconomic. A timing belt change is required every what 5-7 years at a cost of maybe £500, clutches need replacing over the timespan you suggest, brakes far more frequently. Do some per mile costs and it might be of use, you are just guessing as it is. Diesel and petrol costs will continue to rise but maybe electricity may become taxed as EVs become more common too.
I thought I was a cynic about EV but guess I'm just a realist.