Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

benbay001 said:

Adinas, how many companies do you have in total? 
Its all very good showing a company that is up 180% and another that is up 600%, but if you own 20 or more stocks its all rather moot.
On top of this, what possible metric are you using to decide if these companies are buys or sells? 
Every stock, no matter how good the company, has to have a price which if it reached it today, it would become a sell. 
If you cant tell me what that price would be, and how you came to that figure then you are simply speculator IMHO.

Speculation ? Yes, you are absolutely right but with a calculated risk/reward.

I started bought this share back in November 2020 and keep DCA while they keep moving up (DCA in upward direction). It is now 316% in less than three months. I have mentioned this stock many times in this thread. Have a look of it.

You often see in this thread some people want to get a much hgher return than saving account, well known index/mutual that they used to get but they just want the same level of risk. They keep doing the same thing over and over again but want a different result, that is insane. Like this well-known figure is saying

Ciprico

....but you initially invested only £100 or do I read wrong ?
It may be fun and nothing wrong with that to pass the time but its hardly worth the effort as a serious investor...

bowlhead99

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

You didn't actually answer my question. Dot Com boom all over again. Detachment from reality.  Revenue is not profit.  

What is more important for you as an investor, the company makes profit or you make profit ? Each to their own but to me I choose the latter.

Good luck with that approach to investing. 

Example of the power of investing for Growth in Disruptive innovation rather than Value investing

This is one example from my own print screen, Foresight Autonomous (FRSX) the stock I bought back on Dec 1, 2020 and now 653.75%. Could you ever get that by focusing only on Value investing?

I also already mentioned this stock on my previous posting.

adindas said:

Another example the power of investing in disruptive innovation, directly from my print screen.

American Battery Metals (ABML). I bought this share on January 11, 2021, up 181.09% in just two weeks. You will not be surprised if you could notice that they are currently in demand and not many companies are doing what they are doing. 

But what you are doing is hearing tips on CNBC Mad Money etc, reading some bullish articles and if you feel you've heard enough good things under the heading of 'DYOR', you throw £90-£100 at the company, and hoping it gives a spectacular short term return on the small amount of money you put in.

If you do it to a load of companies, you will inevitably get a bunch of 'hits' among the misses and be able to say that the return from the gamble on the particular 'disruptors' that had the spectacular short term returns is impressive. And sure, if it pays off, you can get a high multiple return from a gamble on a 'disruptor' and be able to say things like 'you will never get that rate of return from Value Investing'. But what if it doesn't pay off in a major way, as many opportunities won't? I suppose you can say that the downside is 100% but the upside is over 100% which means investing is sensible if the stock is a 50:50 shot. But most 'disruptors' are much less than 50:50 shots and so trying to beat the market with second-hand news on a cheap retail investment platform is a game mostly played by suckers. It's good for a hobby, and interesting, but most like most hobbies it can be expensive to keep at it.

Assuming your 'due diligence' is more involved than 'most brokers are bullish on it so it should go up', you will have spent hours of research to figure out whether the company was worthy of receiving your £100, conditional on in meeting the 'technical indicator' requirements that your chartism has told you to watch out for. So the 'cost' of a £100 investment is not really £100, is it £100 plus big time and effort to sort the wheat from the chaff. So perhaps £200 or £300 of time and effort cost. If the £100 invesment doubles, you barely break even and might even lose, if you value your time at anything sensible. So you really need to hit a lot of moonshots. 

Yes, it's impressive to turn £100 into £280 in two weeks and you won't generally get that from 'value investing', perhaps the stock is ripe for putting on the 'speculative punt' thread, if everything points to the growth continuing. But if 180% on the hundred quid in two weeks is impressive then 100% in a week would be an even higher and more desirable rate of return... then 100% in a day on similar sums must be even better; how about 100% in a minute, or perhaps in just half a minute?  Here's the outcome of a 'calculated risk' on £75 that I took at lunchtime:


Boom, 100% profit on the £75 in less than a minute. As you say, 'Could you ever get that by focusing only on Value investing?'

Thrugelmir

123mat123 said:

....but you initially invested only £100 or do I read wrong ?
It may be fun and nothing wrong with that to pass the time but its hardly worth the effort as a serious investor...

I was expecting a minimum of £10k initial investment. 

adindas

123mat123 said:

....but you initially invested only £100 or do I read wrong ?
It may be fun and nothing wrong with that to pass the time but its hardly worth the effort as a serious investor...

This one is probably much better. This one is for my long time holding, my pension. Unless something fundamental change such as Elon Musk Suddenly pass away. I am not going to sell it. It is the same with people who bought and has been holding Amazon stock since 25 years ago,they have now become multi millionaires. How many years did it take until you see Amazaon start to make a meaningful profit. Each to their own but I personally believe investing for growth in disruptive innovation is much more profitable than value investing.

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

123mat123 said:

....but you initially invested only £100 or do I read wrong ?
It may be fun and nothing wrong with that to pass the time but its hardly worth the effort as a serious investor...

This one is probably much better. This one is for my long time holding, my pension. Unless something fundamental change such as Elon Musk Suddenly pass away. I am not going to sell it. It is the same with people who bought and has been holding Amazon stock since 25 years ago,they have now become multi millionaires. How many years did it take until you see Amazaon start to make profit. Each to their own but I personally believe investing for growth in disruptive innovation is much more profitable than value investing.

When you've held a stock for 25 years. Then it's time to tell the tale. When Amazon's share price fell 90% to $6 in the Dot Com boom. Many investors lost out. 

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

123mat123 said:

....but you initially invested only £100 or do I read wrong ?
It may be fun and nothing wrong with that to pass the time but its hardly worth the effort as a serious investor...

This one is probably much better. This one is for my long time holding, my pension. Unless something fundamental change such as Elon Musk Suddenly pass away. I am not going to sell it. It is the same with people who bought and has been holding Amazon stock since 25 years ago,they have now become multi millionaires. How many years did it take until you see Amazaon start to make profit. Each to their own but I personally believe investing for growth in disruptive innovation is much more profitable than value investing.

When you've held a stock for 25 years. Then it's time to tell the tale. When Amazon's share price fell 90% to $6 in the Dot Com boom. Many investors lost out. 

Well, I fully respect your opinion.
But considering
the current market caps
Inclusion in S&P 500
revenue prediction
superior business ecosystem
The products are in demand for the next several decades
Etc, etc

I do not believe that Tesla will ever touch the original price when I originally acquired the stock. Also, I never heard any wall street analysist ever cast that verdict in their forecast.

So that chance to get to that price level in my opinion sits next to none.

Also do not forget, the information of particular stock is now available in real time. You always have enough time to exit, there are a lot of tools availble to help you such as setting up the stop loss to protect your principal.

mark55man

The world is full of people who's pension pots were full of potential millions until they weren't  - so well done on making a start and picking a winner and holding your nerve, but nothing lasts forever and you do need to think about risk management

IrishSean

I bought a new portfolio a few weeks ago:
Gfinity; e-sports, set to be in profit nicely this year
Yougov; might get some positive blow back from census etc. But well established anyway
Seeing machines: talk of AI & self guide engines going in future Google products; recent sp bump reflects this
LTG: lockdown imho has just lit this one up. Imagine being an online corporate training company in a world where rivals can't deliver p2p training: boom. My third time buying this.
Boohoo: sp has anchored but I think 40% sales & Debs buy means a bull run is inevitable. Forget overinflated US tech stock this & ASOS are the online clothes shopping Google & Amazon of this decade in terms of cornering markets and huge potential growth.  
Up 10% combined in 2 weeks but soo far to go. Had I had the guts to buy Gfin on St. Patricks day 2020 i'd be up £14k😱. That one's my big watch in 2021. 

Thrugelmir

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

123mat123 said:

....but you initially invested only £100 or do I read wrong ?
It may be fun and nothing wrong with that to pass the time but its hardly worth the effort as a serious investor...

This one is probably much better. This one is for my long time holding, my pension. Unless something fundamental change such as Elon Musk Suddenly pass away. I am not going to sell it. It is the same with people who bought and has been holding Amazon stock since 25 years ago,they have now become multi millionaires. How many years did it take until you see Amazaon start to make profit. Each to their own but I personally believe investing for growth in disruptive innovation is much more profitable than value investing.

When you've held a stock for 25 years. Then it's time to tell the tale. When Amazon's share price fell 90% to $6 in the Dot Com boom. Many investors lost out. 

Well, I fully respect your opinion.
But considering
the current market caps
Inclusion in S&P 500
revenue prediction
superior business ecosystem
The products are in demand for the next several decades
Etc, etc
I do not believe that Tesla will ever touch the original price when I originally acquired the stock. Also, I never heard any wall street analysist ever cast that verdict in their forecast.
So that chance to get that price level in is my opinion is next to nil.

Let's watch with interest as events unfold.  Tesla isn't the first stock market company by any means to have a stretched market valuation.