Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Another Stock to watch  Churchill Capital Corp IV (CCIV).

There is a rumour they are in talk to merge with Lucid Motor (Luxurius EV company backed by Saudi Prince). They have been making a run based on this rumours.

The merge with Lucid Motor might fall through. But if this rumour becomes a reality, "boom" it will send the price to the moon.

good comparison is with CIIG Merger Corp. (CIIC) to merge with Arrival. Given how far CCIV could go (If the merger do happen), it is a good risk/reward ratio especially if you could get it at the strong price support level of $16.63 or lower.

Moe_The_Bartender

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Username999

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

"Over the last three years the number of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has tripled, with more than 400 registered nationwide."

Old article...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51711019

You can get this for $4,200...
https://www.carscoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Wuling-Hongguang-Mini-EV-0.jpg

Thrugelmir

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most. Keep in mind many of the analysts who are good in "value investing" have been mistaken about TESLA when they compare the market cap of EV companies with traditional car makers such as Ford, GM. They value Tesla @$200 (before splitting 1 to 5). And now Tesla is already $826 so refer it back to the valuation before splitting it is equal to 5X$826= $4130. So, $200 vs $4130? you will need to be embarass to make such an inaccurate prediction.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

Also look at how other EV such as NIO has performed.

bowlhead99

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most.

I don't doubt that people who understand the market are more likely to make money than those who don't.  I do agree that most investors caught up by hype are following buzzwords because they have seen EV companies go 10x in value in a short space of time and want to jump onto the bandwagon, without having a deep understanding of the sector or what 'fair value' might actually be in the medium and long term.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

ALso look at how other EVsuch as NIO has performed.

The fact that you can look at Tesla or NIO and see that they went up in value and that Cathie Wood was right to back them at a lower valuation does not mean that investors in general speculating on the sector now are getting in for good prices or that the existing early-movers will maintain the first-mover advantage.

Retireby40

bowlhead99 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most.

I don't doubt that people who understand the market are more likely to make money than those who don't.  I do agree that most investors caught up by hype are following buzzwords because they have seen EV companies go 10x in value in a short space of time and want to jump onto the bandwagon, without having a deep understanding of the sector or what 'fair value' might actually be in the medium and long term.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

ALso look at how other EVsuch as NIO has performed.

The fact that you can look at Tesla or NIO and see that they went up in value and that Cathie Wood was right to back them at a lower valuation does not mean that investors in general speculating on the sector now are getting in for good prices or that the existing early-movers will maintain the first-mover advantage.

Electric cars seems a natural future progression. China have a clear plan that by 2025 20% of all cars will be EV. There is a huge demand on making the climate better.

Its been backed by the Chinese government also.

It looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth. Is it gonna turn the average joe into a millionaire if investing in the stock? No. But you could throw your money at worse things.

bowlhead99

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most.

I don't doubt that people who understand the market are more likely to make money than those who don't.  I do agree that most investors caught up by hype are following buzzwords because they have seen EV companies go 10x in value in a short space of time and want to jump onto the bandwagon, without having a deep understanding of the sector or what 'fair value' might actually be in the medium and long term.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

ALso look at how other EVsuch as NIO has performed.

The fact that you can look at Tesla or NIO and see that they went up in value and that Cathie Wood was right to back them at a lower valuation does not mean that investors in general speculating on the sector now are getting in for good prices or that the existing early-movers will maintain the first-mover advantage.

Electric cars seems a natural future progression. China have a clear plan that by 2025 20% of all cars will be EV. There is a huge demand on making the climate better.

Its been backed by the Chinese government also.

It looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth. Is it gonna turn the average joe into a millionaire if investing in the stock? No. But you could throw your money at worse things.

It's not in much doubt that the EV industry itself will grow and by 2025, 2035, 2045 there will be an increasing proportion of EV and decreasing proportion of petrol and diesel. So there will be lots of demand which means the industry revenue and profits will go up by a lot.  

But there's a difference between the industry making profits and investors making profits of course, especially if investors are backing multiple horses or the wrong horses.  For example, if Tesla made $330m of profits for their last reported quarter, out of about $9bn revenue, that's a pretty small margin but one that can grow over time if someone doesn't knock them off their spot. But if you wanted to buy a share, they are already priced on the expectation that the profits will grow dramatically when everything you hope to happen, happens.

The company is valued at about $800bn. So if it only kept making $330m every quarter (in real terms) it would take about 2400 quarters (600 years) to earn $800bn in today's money and pay back its investors.  Some of the investors who are seeing the share price rise 10x in the last year are thinking, 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I have seen people get 10x their money in1 year' - not 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I should get back at least 1x my money in 600 years'.   

Investors are guessing which companies they think will get to the top or stay at the top, and are having a punt on lots of them under a halo of some good performers that have had years of future growth already 'priced in' from a stock price perspective. Some of them will get burned if the optimistic forecasts don't come to fruition.  As Thrugelmir says, "Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets".

Some of the businesses will be broader than the production of electric vehicles and more generally make a boatload of money off battery tech or other tangential stuff. But loads of companies connected to cleantech or battery tech or electric vehicles are selling for high ratios to current profits. The idea that "it looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth" is baked into the price that you have to pay for a share of a company in such an industry.

Retireby40

bowlhead99 said:

Retireby40 said:

bowlhead99 said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

I'm starting to lose count of the number of EV manufacturers. It’s easier to pick the winner of the 2.30 at Doncaster.

Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets. Was reading a US analysts view on Tesla the other day. Said that Tesla could maintain it's 17% market share for the next 20 years. As if the other global non US car manufacters didn't exist .....

Well, I am not quite sure about this. But evidence has shown those who understand the EV market make money the most.

I don't doubt that people who understand the market are more likely to make money than those who don't.  I do agree that most investors caught up by hype are following buzzwords because they have seen EV companies go 10x in value in a short space of time and want to jump onto the bandwagon, without having a deep understanding of the sector or what 'fair value' might actually be in the medium and long term.

Cathie Wood and Ron Baron already spotted Tesla since there were on infancy lower than $50. Her prediction Low valuation Tesla will become $5000 (low valuation range). You see know it is already very close to this value.

ALso look at how other EVsuch as NIO has performed.

The fact that you can look at Tesla or NIO and see that they went up in value and that Cathie Wood was right to back them at a lower valuation does not mean that investors in general speculating on the sector now are getting in for good prices or that the existing early-movers will maintain the first-mover advantage.

Electric cars seems a natural future progression. China have a clear plan that by 2025 20% of all cars will be EV. There is a huge demand on making the climate better.

Its been backed by the Chinese government also.

It looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth. Is it gonna turn the average joe into a millionaire if investing in the stock? No. But you could throw your money at worse things.

It's not in much doubt that the EV industry itself will grow and by 2025, 2035, 2045 there will be an increasing proportion of EV and decreasing proportion of petrol and diesel. So there will be lots of demand which means the industry revenue and profits will go up by a lot.  

But there's a difference between the industry making profits and investors making profits of course, especially if investors are backing multiple horses or the wrong horses.  For example, if Tesla made $330m of profits for their last reported quarter, out of about $9bn revenue, that's a pretty small margin but one that can grow over time if someone doesn't knock them off their spot. But if you wanted to buy a share, they are already priced on the expectation that the profits will grow dramatically when everything you hope to happen, happens.

The company is valued at about $800bn. So if it only kept making $330m every quarter (in real terms) it would take about 2400 quarters (600 years) to earn $800bn in today's money and pay back its investors.  Some of the investors who are seeing the share price rise 10x in the last year are thinking, 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I have seen people get 10x their money in1 year' - not 'great, I don't mind having a punt because I should get back at least 1x my money in 600 years'.   

Investors are guessing which companies they think will get to the top or stay at the top, and are having a punt on lots of them under a halo of some good performers that have had years of future growth already 'priced in' from a stock price perspective. Some of them will get burned if the optimistic forecasts don't come to fruition.  As Thrugelmir says, "Investors are excited because it's EV. Little understanding of the vehicle markets".

Some of the businesses will be broader than the production of electric vehicles and more generally make a boatload of money off battery tech or other tangential stuff. But loads of companies connected to cleantech or battery tech or electric vehicles are selling for high ratios to current profits. The idea that "it looks like an industry with a lot of potential for growth" is baked into the price that you have to pay for a share of a company in such an industry.

Good read and post! 
Personally I'm invested in NIO. I hold a small amount of Tesla but I think Nio has some huge potential. And after all that's all we can ever back. The news coming from "the experts" and speaking to a few people in China about their opinions on NIO it seems that IF they can get another factory and production running smoothly they will sell tonnes of cars. A big IF but at around $40-45 a share it was a risk I thought was worth taking.

Username999

bowlhead99 said:

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah....

Are you "invested" in Tesla?