Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

quirkydeptless

GazzaBloom said:

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

GazzaBloom

^^  LOL!

Thrugelmir

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

GazzaBloom

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

bigadaj

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

Too many metaphors. Tides and seasons aren't affected by optimism.

bowlhead99

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

Too many metaphors. Tides and seasons aren't affected by optimism.

True - but unlike tides, financial markets are affected by actions and perceptions, so can be driven by waves of optimism, perceived threats to trade / productivity / employment prospects, etc.

Sailtheworld

bowlhead99 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

Too many metaphors. Tides and seasons aren't affected by optimism.

True - but unlike tides, financial markets are affected by actions and perceptions, so can be driven by waves of optimism, perceived threats to trade / productivity / employment prospects, etc.

Quite. When plain English makes the intended point more succinctly multiple metaphors should be redundant. 

GazzaBloom

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:j

bowlhead99 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

Too many metaphors. Tides and seasons aren't affected by optimism.

True - but unlike tides, financial markets are affected by actions and perceptions, so can be driven by waves of optimism, perceived threats to trade / productivity / employment prospects, etc.

Quite. When plain English makes the intended point more succinctly multiple metaphors should be redundant. 

Actually nothing to do with metaphors. More to do with psychology behind investing.