Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Ciprico

Not much sign of any cat in UK equities...

Thrugelmir

Cat has caught Covid in the UK.  Though still at tier 1. 

AnotherJoe

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Thats a very bold bet. 39% in one sector of one country (which is 5% world economy)

Have you considered switching some of the top two to the the bottom two? At present however well the bottom two do they arent going to make a difference so whats the point having them ?

aroominyork

Prism said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Unusual to have that percentage of your total pot in uk smaller companies, it's at a level many would have for us large caps. Personal choice at the end of the day but I'd say it's unusual compared to most portfolios. I'm not saying invest in the ftse 100 but that doesn't mean a large uk allocation needs to be retained, uk is what 5% of the world market after all? They may bounce back next year but it seems a big call away from many would consider a passive and representative investment of the world market.

My portfolio is roughly 50% global large caps and 50% mid/small caps and emerging markets. Seems quite normal to me for someone not wanting to just follow the index.

Similar here: 40% in mid/small caps and emerging markets, and over two-thirds of my UK is mid/small caps. If you are looking for ways not to be closely tied to global large caps there only seem to be three ways to go: mid/small caps, emerging markets and specific sectors such as healthcare, tech, alternative energy etc. (I have a nasty feeling I am about to be pulled up on that last point...)

Prism

123mat123 said:

Not much sign of any cat in UK equities...

Not much in the index no, my allocation through funds though seems to be doing fine.

GazzaBloom

AnotherJoe said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Thats a very bold bet. 39% in one sector of one country (which is 5% world economy)

Have you considered switching some of the top two to the the bottom two? At present however well the bottom two do they arent going to make a difference so whats the point having them ?

I wish I could distribute some from the top 2 to the bottom 2 but I can't. Top 2 are work pension, 3rd is wife's pension and bottom 2 are S&S ISA. The work pension has limited funds I can choose from and the bottom 2 are not available to select unfortunately.

I am salary sacrificing around 15% of gross salary value into my pension including employers contribution but any extra I can manage is going after tax into the ISA. The growth in those 2 funds this year has been so high that the growth on what I'm putting into the ISA after tax has exceeded the boost I would have got from salary sacrifice pre-tax benefits inc NI contributions by paying the extra into my pension.

GazzaBloom

As for dead cat bouncing. Who knows, who cares? I just keep paying in regardless as per my long term strategy to keep buying 100% equities in good mutual funds regardless of the feline mortality rate and trampoline it plays on.

There is always a crisis somewhere in the world rattling the markets and always a head wind then a tail wind then a...etc.

Aberdeenangarse

Is it still bouncing?

quirkydeptless

Aberdeenangarse said:

Is it still bouncing?

quirkydeptless

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