Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:j

bowlhead99 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

Too many metaphors. Tides and seasons aren't affected by optimism.

True - but unlike tides, financial markets are affected by actions and perceptions, so can be driven by waves of optimism, perceived threats to trade / productivity / employment prospects, etc.

Quite. When plain English makes the intended point more succinctly multiple metaphors should be redundant. 

Actually nothing to do with metaphors. More to do with psychology behind investing.

That's good because the metaphors don't add value. Summer turning to Autumn plus the rising and falling of the tides are entirely predictable events so the antithesis of investing.

bigadaj

GazzaBloom said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Unusual to have that percentage of your total pot in uk smaller companies, it's at a level many would have for us large caps. Personal choice at the end of the day but I'd say it's unusual compared to most portfolios. I'm not saying invest in the ftse 100 but that doesn't mean a large uk allocation needs to be retained, uk is what 5% of the world market after all? They may bounce back next year but it seems a big call away from many would consider a passive and representative investment of the world market.

GazzaBloom

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Unusual to have that percentage of your total pot in uk smaller companies, it's at a level many would have for us large caps. Personal choice at the end of the day but I'd say it's unusual compared to most portfolios. I'm not saying invest in the ftse 100 but that doesn't mean a large uk allocation needs to be retained, uk is what 5% of the world market after all? They may bounce back next year but it seems a big call away from many would consider a passive and representative investment of the world market.

Good, that's not what I'm looking for in my investments.

Prism

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Unusual to have that percentage of your total pot in uk smaller companies, it's at a level many would have for us large caps. Personal choice at the end of the day but I'd say it's unusual compared to most portfolios. I'm not saying invest in the ftse 100 but that doesn't mean a large uk allocation needs to be retained, uk is what 5% of the world market after all? They may bounce back next year but it seems a big call away from many would consider a passive and representative investment of the world market.

My portfolio is roughly 50% global large caps and 50% mid/small caps and emerging markets. Seems quite normal to me for someone not wanting to just follow the index.

bigadaj

It's individual choice, I happen to think putting nearly half your money in a tiny sector of the world market (a fraction of a per cent) is an odd approach, others may differ in their view.

Prism

bigadaj said:

It's individual choice, I happen to think putting nearly half your money in a tiny sector of the world market (a fraction of a per cent) is an odd approach, others may differ in their view.

Yep, once you have unshackled yourself from the world index everything is fair game.

bigadaj

Prism said:

bigadaj said:

It's individual choice, I happen to think putting nearly half your money in a tiny sector of the world market (a fraction of a per cent) is an odd approach, others may differ in their view.

Yep, once you have unshackled yourself from the world index everything is fair game.

Are you zpz?

bigadaj

Prism said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Unusual to have that percentage of your total pot in uk smaller companies, it's at a level many would have for us large caps. Personal choice at the end of the day but I'd say it's unusual compared to most portfolios. I'm not saying invest in the ftse 100 but that doesn't mean a large uk allocation needs to be retained, uk is what 5% of the world market after all? They may bounce back next year but it seems a big call away from many would consider a passive and representative investment of the world market.

My portfolio is roughly 50% global large caps and 50% mid/small caps and emerging markets. Seems quite normal to me for someone not wanting to just follow the index.

So your 50% of mid and small caps is mainly invested in the uk?

Prism

bigadaj said:

Prism said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Unusual to have that percentage of your total pot in uk smaller companies, it's at a level many would have for us large caps. Personal choice at the end of the day but I'd say it's unusual compared to most portfolios. I'm not saying invest in the ftse 100 but that doesn't mean a large uk allocation needs to be retained, uk is what 5% of the world market after all? They may bounce back next year but it seems a big call away from many would consider a passive and representative investment of the world market.

My portfolio is roughly 50% global large caps and 50% mid/small caps and emerging markets. Seems quite normal to me for someone not wanting to just follow the index.

So your 50% of mid and small caps is mainly invested in the uk?

Its 50% between mid/small caps and emerging markets. For me, of that allocation around 30% is UK and the rest global. I only use one UK only small cap fund but being in the UK, the majority of small cap funds are UK based so its understandable why anyone who wants funds at this end of the company size spectrum gravitates towards UK funds.

bigadaj

Prism said:

bigadaj said:

Prism said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

bigadaj said:

GazzaBloom said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event.

Decade ?  Century more like.  The tide is still out.  Might be a long haul to full recovery yet. As summer turns to autumn. Then the bubble of optimism might burst. 
.

I'm only seeing a delay in funds recovery from the Covid sell off in UK stocks. Here is the performance last year and this year to date in the 5 funds we hold:

(39% of portfolio) ASI UK Smaller Companies 2019 +45%, 2020 -7%
(41% of portfolio) HSBC Islamic Global Equity Index 2019 +28%, 2020 +14%

(15% of portfolio) L&G Ethical Global Index 2019 +25%, 2020 +4%
(3% of portfolio) Baillie Gifford American B 2019 +27%, 2020 +73%
(2% of portfolio) Polar Capital Global Technology 2019 +32%, 2020 +38%

Across 2019/20 we're in very good shape.

Well at least part of the reason for the uk performance is that it is a smaller companies fund and so has much higher volatility. That seems an unusually large allocation to what is such a small sector of the overall market.

Unusual? Unusual for who? I'm very comfortable with it.
SmallCap is where the UK innovation and growth is, it's the only sector of UK I feel like investing in. The FTSE100 is full of stale old dinosaurs. I expect the SmallCaps to come bouncing back strongly next year, after we get through whatever COVID does over the winter and pass the Brexit deadline.

Unusual to have that percentage of your total pot in uk smaller companies, it's at a level many would have for us large caps. Personal choice at the end of the day but I'd say it's unusual compared to most portfolios. I'm not saying invest in the ftse 100 but that doesn't mean a large uk allocation needs to be retained, uk is what 5% of the world market after all? They may bounce back next year but it seems a big call away from many would consider a passive and representative investment of the world market.

My portfolio is roughly 50% global large caps and 50% mid/small caps and emerging markets. Seems quite normal to me for someone not wanting to just follow the index.

So your 50% of mid and small caps is mainly invested in the uk?

Its 50% between mid/small caps and emerging markets. For me, of that allocation around 30% is UK and the rest global. I only use one UK only small cap fund but being in the UK, the majority of small cap funds are UK based so its understandable why anyone who wants funds at this end of the company size spectrum gravitates towards UK funds.

Interesting, so that gives you around 8% uk small cap, overweight but not excessively so. I'm not sure the fact there are a lot of uk small cap funds would be an influence, there's certainly a decent range of international options, within the us, japan and european at least, and possibly emerging market and wider asian. I can understand why people would want to avoid the ftse 100 from both historic performance and projecting forward, and the default in the uk is often to be massively overweight in uk funds; however substituting uk small caps doesn't seem the obvious resolution to poor quality larger uk stocks. People might want to avoid an element of currency risk and whilst hedging can be used, the pound has declined over many years against the dollar and many other currencies, which has increased returns in sterling terms.