Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Michael121

So what causes the nasdaq to drop 5% was that priced in 6 months ago.

Black_Cat2

Had to double take on this topic "has the dead cat finished bouncing", had all sorts of images in my head involving kittens and trampolines 😭

ElephantBoy57

ProDave said:

The cat has found a new piece of elastic this morning to make up for the losses last week.  I still see no logic to this market right now, but I am enjoying watching my SIPP grow.

Perhaps it's like the housing market, although the outlook is very poor, investors need to put their money somewhere. Demand is stopping prices falling further, for now.

EdGasketTheSecond

I'm expecting a last 'blow-off' top; don't think this is the crash, yet.

Thrugelmir

Michael121 said:

So what causes the nasdaq to drop 5% was that priced in 6 months ago.

Fundamentals have been detached from market prices for some time. The US rally has been most likely liquidity driven. Profit taking, i.e. banking gains, is not a bad idea.  Once it starts it can turn into a stampede. Volatility risk has been increasing over recent weeks. Like a game of poker. Somebody eventually folds their hand. 

TBC15

Cat currently on oxygen due to unpressurised cabin

Sailtheworld

Michael121 said:

So what causes the nasdaq to drop 5% was that priced in 6 months ago.

The market gives you a price, doesn't explain it and today's price doesn't inform as to whether tomorrow's price will be higher or lower.

People enjoy guessing though and tend to think that if they add a nonsense buzzword (dead cat / bear trap / poker et al) it'll add credence to their particular guess - it doesn't.

Bobziz

Buckle up. Nasdaq and Tesla sat on the 50 day MA. S&P and DJ hovering just above. 

cfw1994

bogleboogle said:

cfw1994 said:

Bravepants said:

Hmmm..rising CV-19 cases in the US, the big four tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook) under investigation for monopoly, astonishingly good (for companies in the right sectors) -quarter results coming in, increasing lockdown in the UK....what could possibly go wrong?

I can certainly envisage a bumpy ride for 12-18 months, but my mid- to long-term view is that this is a great time to be investing.  Could be wrong, of course....

Why do you think *now* in particular is such a great time to be investing? 

Sorry, lost track of this thread!
Why?  No deep inside knowledge, but mostly because I am an optimist...
Sure, things may continue to drop - this week isn’t looking great, eh - maybe we will revisit new lows after those of March, but for mid- to long-term - which I see as 5+ years - I believe markets will broadly be up. 

Conversely: do you expect a protracted multi-year (5+) depression ahead?

GazzaBloom

The tide comes in, the tide goes out, but long term we hope the sea level rises. That's what's important.

If you look at the current years equity returns in context with last years and average across the 2 years it looks a pretty healthy position to me, especially in light of the fact that it includes a once in a decade black swan event. Anyone with the US Tech giants and FAANG stocks in their portfolio, which a lot of mutual funds hold at least some, have done well year to date even with the drop over the last few days. UK stocks and funds have been a lot slower and have not recovered to the February highs and probably won't until we get into next year and the dust starts to settle on Brexit uncertainty and we get through the winter and see how COVID plays out.

I try and take the long view.