Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

InA

blue_max_3 said:

So, shares went up 4% because the US fed said they will print much more money. Pumps more cash into the stock market. What can possibly go wrong!

Shares are going up for the most ridiculous of reasons. Take the rally the other day on the back of a press release about the Moderna Vaccine. It was later revealed that they only disclosed results of 8 of the trial subjects with no mention of the other 37, alongside other reasons to take this news with a pinch of salt.

This is either a classic case of irrational exuberance and / or intra-day traders making money from volatility and using any excuse to do so.

Alistair31

Well I just pressed sell on my entire ISA VLS80 holding, let’s hope today is an up day rather than a down day

Intention being to transfer to iWeb in cash when they finally allow transfers again, will be going HSBC All World.

Sailtheworld

InA said:

BananaRepublic said:

It's a slow bounce. The force of gravity can be less in stock market land. Seriously though, I suspect we have seen the worst, and it isn't as bad as I feared, unless you run a small gym, cafe etc.

This is the worst crisis that most of us are likely to see in our lifetimes, and I agree it doesn't seem that bad right now.

However, IMO, the worst is yet to come. Governments around the world stepped in to cushion to the blow from the initial shutdown, but once that support falls away, we will begin to see the real effects on the economy, and I think it will be a protracted downturn. In the UK, when the Job Retention Scheme starts to wind down, we will start seeing job losses, which will translate to more people having less money to spend, which in turn will lead to further job losses as demand falls. This will lead to defaults on loans and mortgages etc. That's without the added effect of people being more cautious as they navigate the new "normal".

I'm less worried about Coronavirus because, in general, people look for solutions, other opportunities & compromise.

I'm more worried about Trump's desperation to win the US election on the economy. He will do or say simply anything to get back into the White House and his supporters are very susceptible to dog whistle politics. Then there's brexit on a more local scale with the silliness recommencing.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

If I haven't the edge to beat the market by picking individual stocks or one of the few fund managers who can then I sure won't be able to pick the best index to follow. Surely your advice to me would be keep doing what I'm doing and buy as much of the market as I can at lowest cost in an amount appropriate to my appetite for risk.

You've choosen to manage your own investments. As I have. I'm not suggesting that you do anything. It's your strategy to follow. Time will be the judge if it was the right index to focus all ones attention on. Likewise if lowest cost is the primary factor to consider when deciding where to invest. Self management comes with it's own pitfalls. Making mistakes is part of the learning experience as far as investing is concerned. 

You're missing the point. In 20 years it's 100% guaranteed there will be other indices that out-performed the FTSE All World - I don't know now which one it'll be. If you know I'm all ears.

I've seen comments like this a few times about costs. I think it might be some sort of snobbery. Over time most fund managers underperform and, on average, all underperform by their costs. Now remembering I'm a dunce who won't be able to pick one of the infinitesimally small number of funds that outperform over the next two decades what should I do?  The answer isn't reading and educating myself because I'm sure fund managers are doing that in spades and still underperform. This isn't about penny pinching; it's about value so the answer is to lower costs and accept 'only' market returns.

Please feel free to PM me with the name of funds that will outperform over the next two decades by more than their costs.

DiggerUK

Sailtheworld said:

DiggerUK said:

It might be worth a few moments of your time to wonder if now is the time you just "might not get back all you invested"

It's not different this time - that's good advice anytime. If only wondering were knowing we'd all be as rich as Croesus.

Did you know that the oldest gold coin in existence was minted in the time of King Croesus. 

You would have got back all you invested in such a coin if you could have survived two and a half thousand years..._

Paenymion

Alistair31 said:

Well I just pressed sell on my entire ISA VLS80 holding, let’s hope today is an up day rather than a down day

In my experience it takes 3-5 days for the sell to happen so you need to hope...some day next week is an up day

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

If I haven't the edge to beat the market by picking individual stocks or one of the few fund managers who can then I sure won't be able to pick the best index to follow. Surely your advice to me would be keep doing what I'm doing and buy as much of the market as I can at lowest cost in an amount appropriate to my appetite for risk.

You've choosen to manage your own investments. As I have. I'm not suggesting that you do anything. It's your strategy to follow. Time will be the judge if it was the right index to focus all ones attention on. Likewise if lowest cost is the primary factor to consider when deciding where to invest. Self management comes with it's own pitfalls. Making mistakes is part of the learning experience as far as investing is concerned. 

You're missing the point. In 20 years it's 100% guaranteed there will be other indices that out-performed the FTSE All World - I don't know now which one it'll be. If you know I'm all ears.

I've seen comments like this a few times about costs. I think it might be some sort of snobbery. Over time most fund managers underperform and, on average, all underperform by their costs. Now remembering I'm a dunce who won't be able to pick one of the infinitesimally small number of funds that outperform over the next two decades what should I do?  The answer isn't reading and educating myself because I'm sure fund managers are doing that in spades and still underperform. This isn't about penny pinching; it's about value so the answer is to lower costs and accept 'only' market returns.

Please feel free to PM me with the name of funds that will outperform over the next two decades by more than their costs.

You are missing the point. Not everyone buys markets or indices. If you need guidance consult someone with access to the funds universe. 

Alistair31

Paenymion said:

Alistair31 said:

Well I just pressed sell on my entire ISA VLS80 holding, let’s hope today is an up day rather than a down day

In my experience it takes 3-5 days for the sell to happen so you need to hope...some day next week is an up day

Haha, I think if you sell before 8am you get the evening price, but yes, quite a gamble in such volatile times.

Alexland

Alistair31 said:

Haha, I think if you sell before 8am you get the evening price, but yes, quite a gamble in such volatile times.

Not looking good for you so far but the Futures market isn't always right. Is there any reason you didn't plan to do an in-specie transfer rather than sitting in cash for an unknown amount of time?

Alistair31

Alexland said:

Alistair31 said:

Haha, I think if you sell before 8am you get the evening price, but yes, quite a gamble in such volatile times.

Not looking good for you so far but the Futures market isn't always right. Is there any reason you didn't plan to do an in-specie transfer rather than sitting in cash for an unknown amount of time?

My fear is my partner or I, or both, losing our jobs as the furlough scheme comes to a close. Although I have a significant enough emergency fund, I figure having a bigger cash position would do no harm in the short term and I am looking to change funds anyway,  when I switch to iWeb it will just be one transaction. Or if I do lose my job I may well throw it all in my SIPP and become a benefits claimant