Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Jim1980

Time will tell. I will always look at evidence from charts etc and not have a market bias. We are entering a period of deflation probably followed by inflation. Precious metals in the past have performed well in these circumstances. 

Prism

Jim1980 said:

Time will tell. I will always look at evidence from charts etc and not have a market bias. We are entering a period of deflation probably followed by inflation. Precious metals in the past have performed well in these circumstances. 

Enough people agree with you which explains the 40% jump in gold prices over the last year. Do you not think you have missed the boat?

Jim1980

I already hold precious metals and have for over a year, so I haven't missed the boat. What happens over the next few years, who knows? But I am bullish precious metals and think they have a big upside. That doesn't mean that there will not be price drops or periods of resistance. 

BananaRepublic

Jim1980 said:

I already hold precious metals and have for over a year, so I haven't missed the boat. What happens over the next few years, who knows? But I am bullish precious metals and think they have a big upside. That doesn't mean that there will not be price drops or periods of resistance. 

I don't suppose you know someone who can sell me some gold? It is just a wild stab in the dark that you might ...

From the look of the markets, them boys in red braces have been at the Bolivian marching powder. It's bizarre. Or are we all so bored senseless that we've taken to buying shares on masse? It'd be interesting to see a breakdown of who is currently buying e.g. private investors, pension funds etc.

Alistair31

I guess a lot of people will be thinking the damage is done and it’s up, up, up now.

EdGasketTheSecond

Malthusian said:

The macroeconomic circumstances for gold were also very favourable during the last market crash, when the banking system was collapsing, the debt bubble was bursting, global trade had ground to a halt, a decade of recession was underway, etc etc, and only shiny metal could protect you from quantitive easing. That worked out well for gold and gold stocks, didn't it. (L&G Gold Mining ETF +35%, S&P GSCI Gold Spot +117%, FTSE World +321% since March 2009.)

Yes gold was a very good investment during and after the 2008 crash too. It went from $730 to $1920 over 2 years +116%, during the same period gold stocks rose 200%. Of course you don't hold them once their relative value changes to other asset classes or the fundamentals are no longer supportive of gold so your figures from 2009 to today are not relevant to whether you should be holding gold and gold stocks now.

Sailtheworld

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Malthusian said:

The macroeconomic circumstances for gold were also very favourable during the last market crash, when the banking system was collapsing, the debt bubble was bursting, global trade had ground to a halt, a decade of recession was underway, etc etc, and only shiny metal could protect you from quantitive easing. That worked out well for gold and gold stocks, didn't it. (L&G Gold Mining ETF +35%, S&P GSCI Gold Spot +117%, FTSE World +321% since March 2009.)

Yes gold was a very good investment during and after the 2008 crash too. It went from $730 to $1920 over 2 years +116%, during the same period gold stocks rose 200%. Of course you don't hold them once their relative value changes to other asset classes or the fundamentals are no longer supportive of gold so your figures from 2009 to today are not relevant to whether you should be holding gold and gold stocks now.

You've said this before. There's no special ratio of gold to stock prices that indicates a good time to buy and sell unless only a select few somehow know about it. Otherwise it would be priced in - why would anyone buy if the ratio says they should be selling and vice versa.

EdGasketTheSecond

Sailtheworld said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Malthusian said:

The macroeconomic circumstances for gold were also very favourable during the last market crash, when the banking system was collapsing, the debt bubble was bursting, global trade had ground to a halt, a decade of recession was underway, etc etc, and only shiny metal could protect you from quantitive easing. That worked out well for gold and gold stocks, didn't it. (L&G Gold Mining ETF +35%, S&P GSCI Gold Spot +117%, FTSE World +321% since March 2009.)

Yes gold was a very good investment during and after the 2008 crash too. It went from $730 to $1920 over 2 years +116%, during the same period gold stocks rose 200%. Of course you don't hold them once their relative value changes to other asset classes or the fundamentals are no longer supportive of gold so your figures from 2009 to today are not relevant to whether you should be holding gold and gold stocks now.

You've said this before. There's no special ratio of gold to stock prices that indicates a good time to buy and sell unless only a select few somehow know about it. Otherwise it would be priced in - why would anyone buy if the ratio says they should be selling and vice versa.

It is because the market misprices things. If that were not so then there would be no crashes or bounces up; it would just gradually and slowly rise. Fact is fear and greed drive the price of assets and they invariably go from boom to bust. You can go back through history and analyse these cycles that change from stocks to real estate to commodities. If you are in the right asset class at the right time you will do far better than sticking with one asset class all the time.

Sheriff_Fatmen

ColdIron said:

In the words of the Irishman when asked for directions - Well I wouldn't start from here

And I say that as someone who is positive about gold. Just not now

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/5-year-gold-price-chart/

is it just me, or is everything (equities, bonds, gold, property) just "not now" .......I'm drip feeding, weekly, rightly or wrongly.  It seems to me that there is just too much money in the system......and some of it might have to start disappearing.

EdGasketTheSecond

ColdIron said:

In the words of the Irishman when asked for directions - Well I wouldn't start from here

And I say that as someone who is positive about gold. Just not now

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/5-year-gold-price-chart/

The chart is in GBP so you are also looking at the fall in GBP against USD. Also if you take a 10 yr chart you find that gold is $200 below it's all time high. Rookie errors.