Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

If I haven't the edge to beat the market by picking individual stocks or one of the few fund managers who can then I sure won't be able to pick the best index to follow. Surely your advice to me would be keep doing what I'm doing and buy as much of the market as I can at lowest cost in an amount appropriate to my appetite for risk.

You've choosen to manage your own investments. As I have. I'm not suggesting that you do anything. It's your strategy to follow. Time will be the judge if it was the right index to focus all ones attention on. Likewise if lowest cost is the primary factor to consider when deciding where to invest. Self management comes with it's own pitfalls. Making mistakes is part of the learning experience as far as investing is concerned. 

You're missing the point. In 20 years it's 100% guaranteed there will be other indices that out-performed the FTSE All World - I don't know now which one it'll be. If you know I'm all ears.

I've seen comments like this a few times about costs. I think it might be some sort of snobbery. Over time most fund managers underperform and, on average, all underperform by their costs. Now remembering I'm a dunce who won't be able to pick one of the infinitesimally small number of funds that outperform over the next two decades what should I do?  The answer isn't reading and educating myself because I'm sure fund managers are doing that in spades and still underperform. This isn't about penny pinching; it's about value so the answer is to lower costs and accept 'only' market returns.

Please feel free to PM me with the name of funds that will outperform over the next two decades by more than their costs.

You are missing the point. Not everyone buys markets or indices. If you need guidance consult someone with access to the funds universe. 

If I haven't got an investment edge such I can't pick which index will outperform a diverse world tracker and neither can I pick a fund manager who will reliably invest money on my behalf it's pretty unlikely I'm going to have the skills to trade stocks, bonds or anything else really.

Imagine you've got far fewer brain cells and have a lowly IQ of 100 like me and pretend, just for a minute, you don't have an investment edge so can't reliably pick stocks or fund managers. You still want to achieve market returns - what do you do?

Yes; that's right - exactly what I'm doing. Thank you.

You've got a much higher IQ and an investment edge so obviously do things very differently. If you (Royal you) don't have an edge and are making market beating returns then you're taking more risk and / or lucky.

I'm sure putting yourself in my shoes was quite traumatic - let me know if you'd like a contribution towards the counselling.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

If I haven't the edge to beat the market by picking individual stocks or one of the few fund managers who can then I sure won't be able to pick the best index to follow. Surely your advice to me would be keep doing what I'm doing and buy as much of the market as I can at lowest cost in an amount appropriate to my appetite for risk.

You've choosen to manage your own investments. As I have. I'm not suggesting that you do anything. It's your strategy to follow. Time will be the judge if it was the right index to focus all ones attention on. Likewise if lowest cost is the primary factor to consider when deciding where to invest. Self management comes with it's own pitfalls. Making mistakes is part of the learning experience as far as investing is concerned. 

You're missing the point. In 20 years it's 100% guaranteed there will be other indices that out-performed the FTSE All World - I don't know now which one it'll be. If you know I'm all ears.

I've seen comments like this a few times about costs. I think it might be some sort of snobbery. Over time most fund managers underperform and, on average, all underperform by their costs. Now remembering I'm a dunce who won't be able to pick one of the infinitesimally small number of funds that outperform over the next two decades what should I do?  The answer isn't reading and educating myself because I'm sure fund managers are doing that in spades and still underperform. This isn't about penny pinching; it's about value so the answer is to lower costs and accept 'only' market returns.

Please feel free to PM me with the name of funds that will outperform over the next two decades by more than their costs.

You are missing the point. Not everyone buys markets or indices. If you need guidance consult someone with access to the funds universe. 

If I haven't got an investment edge such I can't pick which index will outperform a diverse world tracker and neither can I pick a fund manager who will reliably invest money on my behalf it's pretty unlikely I'm going to have the skills to trade stocks, bonds or anything else really.

Imagine you've got far fewer brain cells and have a lowly IQ of 100 like me and pretend, just for a minute, you don't have an investment edge so can't reliably pick stocks or fund managers. You still want to achieve market returns - what do you do?

Yes; that's right - exactly what I'm doing. Thank you.

You've got a much higher IQ and an investment edge so obviously do things very differently. If you (Royal you) don't have an edge and are making market beating returns then you're taking more risk and / or lucky.

I'm sure putting yourself in my shoes was quite traumatic - let me know if you'd like a contribution towards the counselling.

Frankly reading your posts is heading me towards requiring counselling. Perhaps if you spent your time more productively researching you would be better informed as an investor. Doesn't require IQ or natural appitude to master something. Lots of effort and application can be as equally rewarding. 

theselfishaltruist

My view is that the moment the UK and US report they are in a depression, which they will have to at some point, I predict a crash in both markets respectively.
I'm currently waiting for that to happen as I believe it is inevitable. MY money is sat in recession proof stock at the moment. I moved it all out of the FTSE.
I could be wrong, but I can't see any reason why. When people see DEPRESSION in big letters on their BBC News, they will rush to sell their stocks, I think. I cant possible see how the market can do anything other than decline when this is announced. The UK is 100% in a depression at the moment, it just hasn't been officially announced.
But, I am an amateur and could be wrong. We will see. End of Q2 is June 30, so I guess we have to wait and see what happens. 

theselfishaltruist

Thrugelmir said:

Who needs a dead cat when Elon Musk tweets that Tesla shares are overvalued.......... an investors worst nightmare. 
Other CEO's quite rightly keep their personal views to themselves. 

Tesla shares are 100% overvalued. But, if everyone else thinks the same falsehood, the stock stays high. The stock market is a very illogical place. UBER for example has never, once, turned a profit.. yet it's stock is strong. I think Uber is tulip mania all over again.. but we will see. As with these things it is hard to predict. The house of cards stays up until one card is pulled. 

carpy

Alistair31 said:

Well I just pressed sell on my entire ISA VLS80 holding, let’s hope today is an up day rather than a down day

Intention being to transfer to iWeb in cash when they finally allow transfers again, will be going HSBC All World.

it seems cash ISA transfers are back on, well it looked that way when i logged in earlier (despite what their message says)

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

If I haven't the edge to beat the market by picking individual stocks or one of the few fund managers who can then I sure won't be able to pick the best index to follow. Surely your advice to me would be keep doing what I'm doing and buy as much of the market as I can at lowest cost in an amount appropriate to my appetite for risk.

You've choosen to manage your own investments. As I have. I'm not suggesting that you do anything. It's your strategy to follow. Time will be the judge if it was the right index to focus all ones attention on. Likewise if lowest cost is the primary factor to consider when deciding where to invest. Self management comes with it's own pitfalls. Making mistakes is part of the learning experience as far as investing is concerned. 

You're missing the point. In 20 years it's 100% guaranteed there will be other indices that out-performed the FTSE All World - I don't know now which one it'll be. If you know I'm all ears.

I've seen comments like this a few times about costs. I think it might be some sort of snobbery. Over time most fund managers underperform and, on average, all underperform by their costs. Now remembering I'm a dunce who won't be able to pick one of the infinitesimally small number of funds that outperform over the next two decades what should I do?  The answer isn't reading and educating myself because I'm sure fund managers are doing that in spades and still underperform. This isn't about penny pinching; it's about value so the answer is to lower costs and accept 'only' market returns.

Please feel free to PM me with the name of funds that will outperform over the next two decades by more than their costs.

You are missing the point. Not everyone buys markets or indices. If you need guidance consult someone with access to the funds universe. 

If I haven't got an investment edge such I can't pick which index will outperform a diverse world tracker and neither can I pick a fund manager who will reliably invest money on my behalf it's pretty unlikely I'm going to have the skills to trade stocks, bonds or anything else really.

Imagine you've got far fewer brain cells and have a lowly IQ of 100 like me and pretend, just for a minute, you don't have an investment edge so can't reliably pick stocks or fund managers. You still want to achieve market returns - what do you do?

Yes; that's right - exactly what I'm doing. Thank you.

You've got a much higher IQ and an investment edge so obviously do things very differently. If you (Royal you) don't have an edge and are making market beating returns then you're taking more risk and / or lucky.

I'm sure putting yourself in my shoes was quite traumatic - let me know if you'd like a contribution towards the counselling.

Frankly reading your posts is heading me towards requiring counselling. Perhaps if you spent your time more productively researching you would be better informed as an investor. Doesn't require IQ or natural appitude to master something. Lots of effort and application can be as equally rewarding. 

Maybe the 9/10 fund managers failing to match the market over 10 years are managed by people who are bone idle.

Sailtheworld

Looks like the dead cat was a kangaroo

blue_max_3

Sailtheworld said:

Looks like the dead cat was a kangaroo

But it's still dead! Well, we'll see anyway.

Sailtheworld

blue_max_3 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Looks like the dead cat was a kangaroo

But it's still dead! Well, we'll see anyway.

The cat never died eight weeks ago.

It's going to die sometime but that prediction won't get me a talking head slot on Bloomberg TV

Sailtheworld

I'm getting a crick in my neck from straining to see that cat.

Gut feel. Covid's done, it's going to fizzle out before there's any vaccine and the government response was poor and too expensive. They're lucky they've just been elected and, hopefully, there will be a fizzling out because the 25,000 track & trace recruits are a figment of someone's imagination. Gold's going South.

Of course I won't be betting on any of this in case I'm wrong.