Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

Thrugelmir

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

kinger101

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

So Sailtheworld met their objective of obtaining an average return on a index with global diversification for a relatively low cost.  Therefore doing slightly better than the average investor, who would have paid around 0.5% more in fees.  

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

If I haven't the edge to beat the market by picking individual stocks or one of the few fund managers who can then I sure won't be able to pick the best index to follow. Surely your advice to me would be keep doing what I'm doing and buy as much of the market as I can at lowest cost in an amount appropriate to my appetite for risk.

I'm grateful to those with an edge because I'm tracking their success and they're pushing my average returns up - thanks guys - saves me messing about with all that reading and stuff.

MaxiRobriguez

BananaRepublic said:

Rolls Royce looks a good long term bet. The share price was recently much higher suggesting a good foundation. Aviation will be hit for quite some time, but it will pick up again.

Prism said:

Well Fred asked this question on 1st May and my equities are about 5% up from then so I guess the cat wasn't actually dead at all and has plenty of spring left in it. 

It's a slow bounce. The force of gravity can be less in stock market land. Seriously though, I suspect we have seen the worst, and it isn't as bad as I feared, unless you run a small gym, cafe etc.

Tread carefully. Markets correctly pricing supply returning to normal, but not sure they've priced in a new (lower) demand sentiment. I'm young and healthy but will think twice about getting on a bus for a while for example, if I don't get on the bus they don't get the money, and if the bus doesn't take me to the city centre then nowhere there gets the money either. If I think like this, so will others. I don't think anyone yet can really know the impact on corporate balance sheets over the next 24 months.

BananaRepublic

MaxiRobriguez said:

BananaRepublic said:

Rolls Royce looks a good long term bet. The share price was recently much higher suggesting a good foundation. Aviation will be hit for quite some time, but it will pick up again.

Prism said:

Well Fred asked this question on 1st May and my equities are about 5% up from then so I guess the cat wasn't actually dead at all and has plenty of spring left in it. 

It's a slow bounce. The force of gravity can be less in stock market land. Seriously though, I suspect we have seen the worst, and it isn't as bad as I feared, unless you run a small gym, cafe etc.

Tread carefully. Markets correctly pricing supply returning to normal, but not sure they've priced in a new (lower) demand sentiment. I'm young and healthy but will think twice about getting on a bus for a while for example, if I don't get on the bus they don't get the money, and if the bus doesn't take me to the city centre then nowhere there gets the money either. If I think like this, so will others. I don't think anyone yet can really know the impact on corporate balance sheets over the next 24 months.

Sure, some sectors will be hit more than others. Some will do well. Sales of inline skates - rollerblades - are booming, for example, and shops throughout the US are sold out, with Americans buying American Rollerblade brand skates from UK shops! Spotify are doing really well. Streaming services are probably booming. Amazon sales are up. Supermarket sales are doing well. No doubt the markets will wobble for a year or two, scares will come along, and then at some stage we will realise that the markets are crawling upwards. 

The markets operate on sentiment not precise value judgements. 

itwasntme001

The economy is not the same as the stock market, especially not the market cap weighted tracker funds.  Technology and healthcare have been outperforming over the recent past.  Glad to be overweight both sectors as it has helped me outperform with my 7-figure portfolio i manage and I am only in my 30s.  I have a mix of trackers, managed funds and single stocks/trusts.  IMO having all equity allocation in passive funds just seems too risky to me.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.

There's an array of indexes to choose from. As there is markets. A one year return of 0.76% is indeed very average. 

If I haven't the edge to beat the market by picking individual stocks or one of the few fund managers who can then I sure won't be able to pick the best index to follow. Surely your advice to me would be keep doing what I'm doing and buy as much of the market as I can at lowest cost in an amount appropriate to my appetite for risk.

You've choosen to manage your own investments. As I have. I'm not suggesting that you do anything. It's your strategy to follow. Time will be the judge if it was the right index to focus all ones attention on. Likewise if lowest cost is the primary factor to consider when deciding where to invest. Self management comes with it's own pitfalls. Making mistakes is part of the learning experience as far as investing is concerned. 

yellow1231231

ProDave said:

Reality, and the markets seem two different things.

Rolls Royce announce 9000 redundancies and their shares are up 4% today.

still where it was only a week ago 

Thrugelmir

ProDave said:

Reality, and the markets seem two different things.

Rolls Royce announce 9000 redundancies and their shares are up 4% today.

Survival of the fittest. That's the harsh reality. Those that fail to adapt will wither and die. 

InA

BananaRepublic said:

It's a slow bounce. The force of gravity can be less in stock market land. Seriously though, I suspect we have seen the worst, and it isn't as bad as I feared, unless you run a small gym, cafe etc.

This is the worst crisis that most of us are likely to see in our lifetimes, and I agree it doesn't seem that bad right now.

However, IMO, the worst is yet to come. Governments around the world stepped in to cushion to the blow from the initial shutdown, but once that support falls away, we will begin to see the real effects on the economy, and I think it will be a protracted downturn. In the UK, when the Job Retention Scheme starts to wind down, we will start seeing job losses, which will translate to more people having less money to spend, which in turn will lead to further job losses as demand falls. This will lead to defaults on loans and mortgages etc. That's without the added effect of people being more cautious as they navigate the new "normal".