Has the dead cat finished bouncing?

port_of_spain

blue_max_3 said:

You think the market is the best place to keep your cash in the next ten years. Your choice. Not questioning your decision at all.

Yes, but do you disagree with my opinion? You seem to be vaguely nervous about stock markets, but without precise opinions.

I certainly wouldn't question your holding on to cash which you may be using for a property purchase. But if you have some cash that is clearly surplus to that requirement (I don't know whether this is the case), why are you holding on to it?

E.g. do you disagree with my view that 10-year prospects for equities are OK-ish (at least: better than 10-year prospects for cash)? Or do you think you can time the market in the short term, to pick a better entry point?

You mention you're "older", but unless your life expectancy is less than 10 years, I don't see that makes much difference. Retirements can last a long time.

Alternatively, I realize you might have other potential uses for your cash, so it's not necessarily a question of what has the best prospects for returns.

The thing is that, if it comes back to vague nervousness about stock markets, in the face of the (I would agree) genuinely large uncertainties about precisely how the pandemic will affect economies, then you can hold off until some of these uncertainties have reduced, but the trouble is that ......... First, if and when there is less to worry about, stock markets will probably be higher; you make more money by buying when other people are scared. "The market climbs a wall of worry." ... And secondly, when one worry subsides, another may take its place. There is always something to worry about, and it often feels like "this time it's different".

Sailtheworld

blue_max_3 said:

Sailtheworld said:

It wasn't perspective that was being given 6 - 7 weeks ago it was predictions for steep market falls. They were pretty useless predictions because they didn't give a timeframe but the implication was one of imminence. Now I'm being told that the steep market climbs were expected too - by the same people.

I don't know the answers to your questions of course but, as it turns out, neither did the people who thought they did a couple of months ago. In the main there's people who know they can't predict the future and people who don't know they can't yet. Why gamble on one outcome or another - there's simply no need. Usual disclaimer - this can be safely ignored by those who can predict the future.

Totally agree. I'm only cautioning against not factoring in the massive effects of the virus. In all other circumstances, I'd agree with you. Now, whether, when, or if, is a different matter.
Place your bets!

I invest assuming the market has factored in all available data - it makes life easier and, over the longer term, wealthier.

Of course caution is needed.The market view may change after further consideration of the same or as new data becomes available. The way to deal with this is to reduce your market exposure to a level where you're content with the risk being taken.

Unless one has a gift for consistently being able to identify that the market is wrong there's just no requirement for anyone to take a particular view on whether the market is right or wrong.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

Those who bet on an imminent crash without factoring in the (apparently) entirely predictable dead cat bounce are another two weeks into a hole?

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price - that's why we share the task and leave it to the market. There's no compulsion to act just because a share has gone up, down or sideways.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

EdGasketTheSecond

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Sailtheworld, you choose to be blind or else you can't be bothered to analyse the financial data and make a decision; instead believing the best option is to stick your head in a bucket of sand and buy the market, because the market has priced everything in.

Sailtheworld

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Sailtheworld, you choose to be blind or else you can't be bothered to analyse the financial data and make a decision; instead believing the best option is to stick your head in a bucket of sand and buy the market, because the market has priced everything in.

Not quite. It's not that I think markets are perfectly efficient; it's more that I don't think I (or pretty much anyone else TBH) can reliably analyse the data any better than the market. I'm happy to take market returns and I've not bet the farm either so if those market returns disappoint I'll be OK.

Plenty of people betting their own as well as their family's farms on being right are denying themselves the luxury of being wrong.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL.  As you've reminded us on a frequent basis.  Share prices are driven by fundamentals. That's the bottom line. A concept that you seem to struggle with. Markets are simply the result of thousands of individual transactions every day. What an index stands at is just a number at a point of time. All that matters to you is the % movement between when you buy and sell the units. The actual performance of the constituents of the index is of no interest or relevance. That's your choice. No need to keep rambling on because others hold alternative views. Without alternative views there'd be no markets. 

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL.  As you've reminded us on a frequent basis.  Share prices are driven by fundamentals. That's the bottom line. A concept that you seem to struggle with. Markets are simply the result of thousands of individual transactions every day. What an index stands at is just a number at a point of time. All that matters to you is the % movement between when you buy and sell the units. The actual performance of the constituents of the index is of no interest or relevance. That's your choice. No need to keep rambling on because others hold alternative views. Without alternative views there'd be no markets. 

I'd take the emotion out of it. No need to take umbridge because someone says they think a lot of people are deluding themselves about their investment skills. If it doesn't apply to you then either say so or move on. How much have you beaten global markets by since you started out? No need to be modest or coy. 

I'm pretty sure the difference between what we buy and sell at is of the utmost importance to both of us.

kinger101

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

What's fundamentally changed since Friday or the Friday before? The future still holds the same uncertainties. Other than hot money speculating on the latest tit bit of news. There's some wild volatility in underlying share prices day to day beneath the index headlines. . 

So much new data has probably emerged that it would be impossible for a person to digest it all and determine the correct market price 

Um...... there's currently a lack financial data. 

Market prices aren't just set based on financial data of course. Besides which the point still stands - no person could possibly analyse all the available data of the last two weeks and determine whether the market was right or wrong. It's gut feel people are working on when they say the market is too high and probably it's more to do with personality than anything else - I bet it's quite rare to find someone who calls falls who calls rises anywhere near as often. i.e. to date they've been wrong most of the time.

Guess that's why you religiously bought a poorly performing investment such as VRWL. 

It can hardly be said to be poor.  Just predictably average.