Is this a bear market?

torrence

MaxiRobriguez said:

torrence said:

Not sure what point you are making there. So someone is selling? So they are taking a bit of profit from the recent rally. But it doesn't counter my point right throughout this thread that we've seen the bottom of this bear to within a few % already for all the reasons I have said. 

But your "reasons" aren't truth yet, and they hold as much weight as a counter argument which says the virus will mutate and come back every few years with the need for temporary quarantines not abating for a decade, with stocks never recovering. 

This reasoning for being bearish is a good example of why I don't see any lows signifcantly lower than the one last week. The reasons for being pessimistic are so complicated. This may happen, that may happen, mutations, end of the world etc. Such outcomes requrie too many rolls of the dice to come out badly and imagine that science and whatever funding it needs won't find a fix! You may as well be bearish because of the remote likelyhood of volcanos or asteroids.

The reality is that we will soon have an antibody test, we will find that millions already have already had the virus and have antibodies and millions will get back to work. For the doubters that many of us have already had it, consider royalty has it, the PM has it, probably most people know at least one person who has had it. So as I explained in an earlier post, this virus has been spreading for weeks or months longer than before the first serious cases were picked up and most people were without symptoms. That's millions of people who can soon get back to work. Those antibody tests will be available very soon - it matters to the economy so its a priority. So we're seen the bottom of this bear market to within a few % at worst. 

Thrugelmir

How many years have you been investing for? 

torrence

Your question infers you consider my confidence naive. But I just cannot accept all the reasons given for negativity.
Everyone knows the quote "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" and sure enough there is fear in almost every response this thread has got and some really improbable doom scenarios. I see the outcome over the next few months very differently.

eskbanker

torrence said:

Everyone knows the quote "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" and sure enough there is fear in almost every response this thread has got and some really improbable doom scenarios. I see the outcome over the next few months very differently.

Are you clinging onto that adage as some sort of evidence that contrarians are always right?

ruperts

torrence said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

torrence said:

Not sure what point you are making there. So someone is selling? So they are taking a bit of profit from the recent rally. But it doesn't counter my point right throughout this thread that we've seen the bottom of this bear to within a few % already for all the reasons I have said. 

But your "reasons" aren't truth yet, and they hold as much weight as a counter argument which says the virus will mutate and come back every few years with the need for temporary quarantines not abating for a decade, with stocks never recovering. 

This reasoning for being bearish is a good example of why I don't see any lows signifcantly lower than the one last week. The reasons for being pessimistic are so complicated. This may happen, that may happen, mutations, end of the world etc. Such outcomes requrie too many rolls of the dice to come out badly and imagine that science and whatever funding it needs won't find a fix! You may as well be bearish because of the remote likelyhood of volcanos or asteroids.

The reality is that we will soon have an antibody test, we will find that millions already have already had the virus and have antibodies and millions will get back to work. For the doubters that many of us have already had it, consider royalty has it, the PM has it, probably most people know at least one person who has had it. So as I explained in an earlier post, this virus has been spreading for weeks or months longer than before the first serious cases were picked up and most people were without symptoms. That's millions of people who can soon get back to work. Those antibody tests will be available very soon - it matters to the economy so its a priority. So we're seen the bottom of this bear market to within a few % at worst. 

I don't disagree with your first paragraph, but as for the 2nd, if that was true here then it would be true in other countries too. So in countries that have done a lot of testing such as Iceland (nearly 4% of the population tested) you would see a great many positive tests, but actually only 6% of tests in Iceland have come back positive. That figure is heavily skewed towards positives because they test more people with symptoms than without, so the figure in the general population will be significantly lower.

The Icelandic think 50% of cases are asymptomatic. Our government have estimated the real number of cases could be 10x to 20x higher than reported. Even if we take the top end of that, and add another 50% that they might not have accounted for being completely asymptomatic, you're only at 300k cases. Nowhere near enough for things to start going back to normal.

torrence

I may be wrong. Perhaps I have overstated the case for confidence.

These are uncertain times and everyone has a right to be cautious.

I hope everyone makes the right investment decisions for their own situation and wherever the market goes next that it works out in the long run.

Alexland

We should remain cautious but I also suspect in the UK this started earlier, spread further and has a lower mortality rate than people realised. However we really need some reliable population sample testing to confirm the position.

EdGasketTheSecond

torrence said:

Everyone knows the quote "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" and sure enough there is fear in almost every response this thread has got and some really improbable doom scenarios. I see the outcome over the next few months very differently.

That quote doesn't mean be stupid when others are fearful. Buffet was talking about undervalued companies in a favourable market. If you read up on his and Benjamin Graham's strategy, he actually recommends being in US TIPS for most of the time until stocks are undervalued. Right now stocks are way overvalued by any measure and that was before the virus hit.

Alexland

EdGasketTheSecond said:

That quote doesn't mean be stupid when others are fearful. Buffet was talking about undervalued companies in a favourable market. If you read up on his and Benjamin Graham's strategy, he actually recommends being in US TIPS for most of the time until stocks are undervalued. Right now stocks are way overvalued by any measure and that was before the virus hit.

But you were happy to hold stocks before the crash occurred as described in your Liquidate Entire Portfolio thread? I had similar concerns about how valuations would impact future returns so had already liquidated a couple of accounts where I had a better cash option.
However now investing at a material reduction might not be perfect if the market falls a bit further but then isn't particularly stupid as the world is highly likely to recover from this virus as it has in the past when millions were killed.

EdGasketTheSecond

Yeah I was stupid. I had to educate myself and quick about what was happening and why. I did manage to switch some stuff out without too much loss and some later with larger losses. Almost all of what I have sold is lower now than when I sold. I am in no rush to buy it back.

Looking back it was hard to see how far and fast the virus was coming and how much effect it would have; where I was stupid was not getting out anyway pre-virus as markets were so overvalued; that oversight cost me a lot.