Is this a bear market?

torrence

I have just 70% in equities and had cash ready to buy equities in a real bear market with 40-60% falls. 

Things were supposed to be worse than the 2008 crisis, so the commentators claim, but markets are already back up on Fed action and never fell more than 35% from the top!

Markets were over-priced and due a correction so if we've already seen the bottom that was nothing out of the ordinary apart from the speed.

Within a few % we've already seen the market bottom.

If that's it this bear was a damp squib.

EdGasketTheSecond

grooooowwwwwwlllll

I'm expecting sub 4000 on FTSE and sub 15000 on Dow

torrence

No the markets may jump around close to the previous low but give or take a few % we've seen the market bottom already.

Thrugelmir

There's mechanisms in place to keep stock market trading orderly. As the crisis is still unfolding. Where the markets will ultimately bottom is a complete unknown. There'll be many days of extreme volatility. Depending on whether the news is good or bad. With trading thin in many stocks offloading large positions is a long drawn out process. Every seller requires a buyer. 
The GFC impacted primarily a certain group of stocks, i.e. financial. This crisis is going to touch every corner of the market in some way. 

EdGasketTheSecond

torrence said:

No the markets may jump around close to the previous low but give or take a few % we've seen the market bottom already.

Be interesting to quote you on that end of next month

torrence

It will be interesting to quote me. Most doomsters were forecasting S&P down 40% or more. No way that's happening now.

EdGasketTheSecond

LOL OK then

torrence

It won't be long before there's a test for who has already had the virus of which many are asympomatic.

When 30, 40, 50% of people are found to have antibodies and can safely go back to work without risk to themselves or others, the economy will start to recover fast.

Lots of focus is on a vaccine, but for the economy the antibody test is the game changer, and that will be available soon enough.

EdGasketTheSecond

The economy was on the rocks before the virus.

Thrugelmir

torrence said:

It will be interesting to quote me. Most doomsters were forecasting S&P down 40% or more. No way that's happening now.

When the first quarter earnings reporting season gets underway in April. There'll be a clearer indication as to the damage done and the companies own guidance for Q2.  Anybody can toss a coin. That's speculation not investing. 

torrence

Q1 earnings are expected to be the worst on record, and Q2 is expected to be even worse. The markets know and it's already priced in.

Expect an announcement about an antibody test followed by the market recovery.