Is this a bear market?

torrence

Thrugelmir said:

torrence said:

 Does anyone really think people, especially in the US, will accept lockdown for more than a few weeks?

What are they going to do. Come onto the streets to riot, rob and pillage?   Benefit claimants rose by 3 million last week. Exceeding the record set in 1982 of 695,000. Trump has had to get the helicopters flying for a good reason, placate social unrest. 

I can't tell if you are agreeing with me or not. But in any case your point supports mine.

What are they going to do? They won't vote for Trump, that's what, unless he lets them get back to work, so he will. (He doesn't care about those that won't vote for him, he knows nothing he does will ever get their votes so his focus is always only on his core vote.)

The US will do whatever it takes including helicopter money and including getting people back to work asap with rapid antibody testing 

Yes claimants rose 3m, shock! worst ever! and the markets take it in their stride. The bottom of this bear has gone.

Thrugelmir

torrence said:

Thrugelmir said:

torrence said:

 Does anyone really think people, especially in the US, will accept lockdown for more than a few weeks?

What are they going to do. Come onto the streets to riot, rob and pillage?   Benefit claimants rose by 3 million last week. Exceeding the record set in 1982 of 695,000. Trump has had to get the helicopters flying for a good reason, placate social unrest. 

I can't tell if you are agreeing with me or not. But in any case your point supports mine.

What are they going to do? They won't vote for Trump, that's what, unless he lets them get back to work, so he will. (He doesn't care about those that won't vote for him, he knows nothing he does will ever get their votes so his focus is always only on his core vote.)

The US will do whatever it takes including helicopter money and including getting people back to work asap with rapid antibody testing 

Yes claimants rose 3m, shock! worst ever! and the markets take it in their stride. The bottom of this bear has gone.

Trump will remain in office. The US will never vote a socialist into office . 
Often gets forgotten that we are the market. All those billions of retail investors who have their own views. We influence the direction of travel. Market makers will price depending on whether there's demand or not for a particular security. . 

MaxiRobriguez

torrence said:

Does anyone really think that the antibody test won't be ready asap so the economy can get back to work asap? If even I can figure this out then the market makers know this too.

What happens if the antibody tests come back and show 99% of those taking the test are proven not to have had Coronavirus?

Eco_Miser

torrence said:

An antibody test will soon be available and will confirm high numbers of people have already got antibodies and without symptoms and can return to normal life without putting anyone in danger.

Someone having antibodies does not prove that they are not still infectious, nor does it stop them transmitting the virus on their hands from surface to surface.
Returning to normal life still endangers the vulnerable.

Linton

It is a reasonable assumption that if nothing the market considers unpleasantly surprising happens prices wont collapse.  But that was also true before coronavirus. 

torrence

MaxiRobriguez said:

torrence said:

Does anyone really think that the antibody test won't be ready asap so the economy can get back to work asap? If even I can figure this out then the market makers know this too.

What happens if the antibody tests come back and show 99% of those taking the test are proven not to have had Coronavirus?

That won't happen!
I can tell you what will happen. The number of people that have already had it, many without symptoms, will be millions. Think about it: the odds that the first reported UK case was also the real first infection in the UK are statistically remote. So we can assume the virus has been circulating since long before the first reported case, and wth the known infection rate, many people have had it already without knowing. Once it is clear that a high percentage of people testing have anti-bodies they just need to self-isolate 2 weeks after the test, then they can get back to work. It will probably be the same in the US too.

Eco_Miser said:

torrence said:

An antibody test will soon be available and will confirm high numbers of people have already got antibodies and without symptoms and can return to normal life without putting anyone in danger.

Someone having antibodies does not prove that they are not still infectious, nor does it stop them transmitting the virus on their hands from surface to surface.
Returning to normal life still endangers the vulnerable.

Same answer as to MaxiRobriguez. 2 weeks after the test they can get back to work without being any more risk than anyone else.

MaxiRobriguez

torrence said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

torrence said:

Does anyone really think that the antibody test won't be ready asap so the economy can get back to work asap? If even I can figure this out then the market makers know this too.

What happens if the antibody tests come back and show 99% of those taking the test are proven not to have had Coronavirus?

That won't happen!
I can tell you what will happen. The number of people that have already had it, many without symptoms, will be millions. Think about it: the odds that the first reported UK case was also the real first infection in the UK are statistically remote. So we can assume the virus has been circulating since long before the first reported case, and wth the known infection rate, many people have had it already without knowing. Once it is clear that a high percentage of people testing have anti-bodies they just need to self-isolate 2 weeks after the test, then they can get back to work. It will probably be the same in the US too.

So the markets will rise, because there will be a fully functioning antibody test, which will prove most people have already had it, and will prove immunity to future strains of the virus. 

Sorry but I think you're wrong. If most of us have had the virus already then the cases and hospitalisations wouldn't be going up exponentially, they'd have leveled off prior to enforced lockdowns.

The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, far more many people than current figures suggest having had it, but still with the vast majority of the population still yet to have had it, and therefore the need for social distancing and lockdowns in order to retain some capacity remains.

And because the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, so too does the potential market moves from here.

Prism

torrence said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

torrence said:

Does anyone really think that the antibody test won't be ready asap so the economy can get back to work asap? If even I can figure this out then the market makers know this too.

What happens if the antibody tests come back and show 99% of those taking the test are proven not to have had Coronavirus?

That won't happen!
I can tell you what will happen. The number of people that have already had it, many without symptoms, will be millions. Think about it: the odds that the first reported UK case was also the real first infection in the UK are statistically remote. So we can assume the virus has been circulating since long before the first reported case, and wth the known infection rate, many people have had it already without knowing. Once it is clear that a high percentage of people testing have anti-bodies they just need to self-isolate 2 weeks after the test, then they can get back to work. It will probably be the same in the US too.

I hope you are right about the Oxford model but until the testing is done we really won't know.

kinger101

torrence said:

That won't happen!

I can tell you what will happen. The number of people that have already had it, many without symptoms, will be millions. Think about it: the odds that the first reported UK case was also the real first infection in the UK are statistically remote. So we can assume the virus has been circulating since long before the first reported case, and wth the known infection rate, many people have had it already without knowing. Once it is clear that a high percentage of people testing have anti-bodies they just need to self-isolate 2 weeks after the test, then they can get back to work. It will probably be the same in the US too.

Same answer as to MaxiRobriguez. 2 weeks after the test they can get back to work without being any more risk than anyone else.

On your first point, the likelihood that there are millions of people in the UK who've acquired the infection asymptomatically is practically nil.  In South Korea and Japan, where testing is much more widespread, the rate of asymptomatic infections is thought to be around 30 %.  Give there are currently short of 10,000 diagnosed cases in the UK, then a 3:7 ratio would be ca. 4,200.  Of course, there are many symptomatic people who've not been diagnosed, but that would mean there would need in the region 2.3 million people with symptoms to give an asymptomatic number of cases of 1 million.  We'd have seen that reflected in the number of deaths.

On the second point, the antibody test that has been developed detects IgM and IgG.  Someone with only IgM would likely be highly infectious, but IgG indicates recovery.  Technically, assuming to mutation in the virus anitgens, the risk of interacting with an IgG positive person two weeks post-infection would actually be much lower than the general population. 

kinger101

Prism said:

torrence said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

torrence said:

Does anyone really think that the antibody test won't be ready asap so the economy can get back to work asap? If even I can figure this out then the market makers know this too.

What happens if the antibody tests come back and show 99% of those taking the test are proven not to have had Coronavirus?

That won't happen!
I can tell you what will happen. The number of people that have already had it, many without symptoms, will be millions. Think about it: the odds that the first reported UK case was also the real first infection in the UK are statistically remote. So we can assume the virus has been circulating since long before the first reported case, and wth the known infection rate, many people have had it already without knowing. Once it is clear that a high percentage of people testing have anti-bodies they just need to self-isolate 2 weeks after the test, then they can get back to work. It will probably be the same in the US too.

I hope you are right about the Oxford model but until the testing is done we really won't know.

The problem with the "Oxford model" is it relies on too many assumptions and too little data.  Though it would be prudent to use say 100,000 of those 3.5 million kits the government is getting to at least find out how much of the general population has been exposed.  In the unlikely event the authors are right, it would bring a premature halt to the need to isolate, which will have lasting consequences for the physical, mental and financial health of the nation.