Is this a bear market?

Thrugelmir

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Prism said:

Over the next few months we may find a cure for this virus or it might mutate into something even worse. The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

There's no magical time saving method of creating a vaccine. The impact on Africa and India etc isn't even on peoples minds. We are only focussing on ourselves. 

Vaccines are not cures. They're prophylactics. 

I suspect the response in poorest countries will be very different.  The developed world's response has been about making sure health systems can cope with the number of life-threatening covid cases, while continuing to provide a high level of service to all the other non-covid patients (e.g., dialysis patients, cancer treatments, maternity etc). 

Most developed countries have between 20-40 doctors per 10,000 people.  In sub-Saharan Africa, it's usually <1.  And with the most rudimentary of hospitals.  Which also already have to deal with things like malaria.  I suspect these countries are on the path to herd immunity through lack of other options.   

Viruses mutate. Will return again in the future in another form. Herd immunity is only against the current strain. 

BananaRepublic

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Prism said:

Over the next few months we may find a cure for this virus or it might mutate into something even worse. The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

There's no magical time saving method of creating a vaccine. The impact on Africa and India etc isn't even on peoples minds. We are only focussing on ourselves. 

Vaccines are not cures. They're prophylactics. 

I suspect the response in poorest countries will be very different.  The developed world's response has been about making sure health systems can cope with the number of life-threatening covid cases, while continuing to provide a high level of service to all the other non-covid patients (e.g., dialysis patients, cancer treatments, maternity etc). 

Most developed countries have between 20-40 doctors per 10,000 people.  In sub-Saharan Africa, it's usually <1.  And with the most rudimentary of hospitals.  Which also already have to deal with things like malaria.  I suspect these countries are on the path to herd immunity through lack of other options.   

Viruses mutate. Will return again in the future in another form. Herd immunity is only against the current strain. 

Mutation rates vary depending on the virus. Flu mutates rapidly, this new virus appears to be mutating slowly, more like mumps than flu, which is good news. It will return and we don’t know how long immunity lasts for, in the case of flu it lasts about a year. We are nowhere near herd immunity. I guess this could return each year and be much worse than flu, requiring a jab for everyone each year. Ouch. 
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#What-this-means-for-a-vaccine

BananaRepublic

torrence said:

It will be interesting to quote me. Most doomsters were forecasting S&P down 40% or more. No way that's happening now.

Noone saw this one coming, few will see the next dip coming. So saying “No way” is tempting fate is it not?

Maybe the boys in red braces have already priced in the destruction of large swathes of the service industry such as cafes and restaurants, gyms, sports clubs, furniture shops, travel agencies, airlines and so on. Admittedly most of those can be replaced fairly quickly, or survivors can expand. 

LHW99

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Prism said:

Over the next few months we may find a cure for this virus or it might mutate into something even worse. The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

There's no magical time saving method of creating a vaccine. The impact on Africa and India etc isn't even on peoples minds. We are only focussing on ourselves. 

Vaccines are not cures. They're prophylactics. 

I suspect the response in poorest countries will be very different.  The developed world's response has been about making sure health systems can cope with the number of life-threatening covid cases, while continuing to provide a high level of service to all the other non-covid patients (e.g., dialysis patients, cancer treatments, maternity etc). 

Most developed countries have between 20-40 doctors per 10,000 people.  In sub-Saharan Africa, it's usually <1.  And with the most rudimentary of hospitals.  Which also already have to deal with things like malaria.  I suspect these countries are on the path to herd immunity through lack of other options.   

Viruses mutate. Will return again in the future in another form. Herd immunity is only against the current strain. 

Mutation rates vary depending on the virus. Flu mutates rapidly, this new virus appears to be mutating slowly, more like mumps than flu, which is good news. It will return and we don’t know how long immunity lasts for, in the case of flu it lasts about a year. We are nowhere near herd immunity. I guess this could return each year and be much worse than flu, requiring a jab for everyone each year. Ouch. 
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#What-this-means-for-a-vaccine

Perhaps it is mutating slowly, but there are apparently already three types out there, affecting different groups to different extents.

Thrugelmir

LHW99 said:

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Prism said:

Over the next few months we may find a cure for this virus or it might mutate into something even worse. The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

There's no magical time saving method of creating a vaccine. The impact on Africa and India etc isn't even on peoples minds. We are only focussing on ourselves. 

Vaccines are not cures. They're prophylactics. 

I suspect the response in poorest countries will be very different.  The developed world's response has been about making sure health systems can cope with the number of life-threatening covid cases, while continuing to provide a high level of service to all the other non-covid patients (e.g., dialysis patients, cancer treatments, maternity etc). 

Most developed countries have between 20-40 doctors per 10,000 people.  In sub-Saharan Africa, it's usually <1.  And with the most rudimentary of hospitals.  Which also already have to deal with things like malaria.  I suspect these countries are on the path to herd immunity through lack of other options.   

Viruses mutate. Will return again in the future in another form. Herd immunity is only against the current strain. 

Mutation rates vary depending on the virus. Flu mutates rapidly, this new virus appears to be mutating slowly, more like mumps than flu, which is good news. It will return and we don’t know how long immunity lasts for, in the case of flu it lasts about a year. We are nowhere near herd immunity. I guess this could return each year and be much worse than flu, requiring a jab for everyone each year. Ouch. 
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#What-this-means-for-a-vaccine

Perhaps it is mutating slowly, but there are apparently already three types out there, affecting different groups to different extents.

Speaking to a friend in Oz this morning. Seems as if early indications of immunity aren't particularly positive in China.