Is this a bear market?

EdGasketTheSecond

torrence said:

US markets are not going to fall dramatically on the bad employment data due later today. So still nothing pushing markets to the previous low. 

Phew that's a relief; I'll go all in then.

Thrugelmir

EdGasketTheSecond said:

torrence said:

US markets are not going to fall dramatically on the bad employment data due later today. So still nothing pushing markets to the previous low. 

Phew that's a relief; I'll go all in then.

Probably best to wait until the figure stabilises. Apparently a backlog in processing claimants. 

Barry_Bear

torrence said:

US markets are not going to fall dramatically on the bad employment data due later today. So still nothing pushing markets to the previous low. 

Interesting call but right!  
Unemployment figures worse than even the worst forecasts and US market is up. Strange times!

NorthernJoe

Barry_Bear said:

torrence said:

US markets are not going to fall dramatically on the bad employment data due later today. So still nothing pushing markets to the previous low. 

Interesting call but right!  
Unemployment figures worse than even the worst forecasts and US market is up. Strange times!

Markets expect a short, sharp shock then a rebound. 

Sadly the virology would suggest otherwise.

The notion of second or even further waves of infection haven't quite filtered through to the masses yet. 

torrence

NorthernJoe said:

Barry_Bear said:

torrence said:

US markets are not going to fall dramatically on the bad employment data due later today. So still nothing pushing markets to the previous low. 

Interesting call but right!  
Unemployment figures worse than even the worst forecasts and US market is up. Strange times!

Markets expect a short, sharp shock then a rebound. 

Sadly the virology would suggest otherwise.

The notion of second or even further waves of infection haven't quite filtered through to the masses yet. 

I said at the start of the thread that the markets have already seen the bottom to within a few %.

It's not guess work or reading charts. Markets are getting anaesthetized to bad data. Today's unemployment data was a good test of this which is why I posted before the data was released.

Those unemployment figures could have sent the markets into a big fall, but it wasn't going to happen. So there is bad news fatigue and knowing there will be more from the Fed if it's needed. 

EdGasketTheSecond

Maybe the 25% rise in oil price had something to do with it!

NorthernJoe

I said at the start of the thread that the markets have already seen the bottom to within a few %.

It's not guess work or reading charts. Markets are getting anaesthetized to bad data. Today's unemployment data was a good test of this which is why I posted before the data was released.

Those unemployment figures could have sent the markets into a big fall, but it wasn't going to happen. So there is bad news fatigue and knowing there will be more from the Fed if it's needed. 

All anaesthetics eventually wear off. 

We haven't had major corporate failures as yet.

Central bank intervention has seen off an immediate cash crunch for many firms but this isn't sustainable & the vast majority of measures are based around presumptions of very short-term pressures. The inevitable debt defaults risk a further credit crunch and the tools available to central banks around the world is severely limited. 

Countries that have "successfully" controlled the outbreak have absolutely no idea how to unwind the draconian measures they've introduced - 98% of the population of Wuhan have no immunity to this virus. 

A vaccine is at least another year away & where coronaviruses are concerned, an effective vaccine is by no means guaranteed. 

torrence

Nothern Joe
Fair points but I disagree.
 
A vaccine isn't relevant right now for world governments. As I said near the start of this thread last week the real priority is the test for antibodies and so it will be fast-tracked (since my original post this has been more widely confirmed) and I can tell you (and my guess is governments have data already) now that a huge number has already had the virus (mostly asymptomatic), and will be able to return to work. Things will get back to normal much quicker than imagined right now. This will not carry on for months.

Thrugelmir

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Maybe the 25% rise in oil price had something to do with it!

Doesn't change the reduction in demand though. 

Thrugelmir

torrence said:

NorthernJoe said:

Barry_Bear said:

torrence said:

US markets are not going to fall dramatically on the bad employment data due later today. So still nothing pushing markets to the previous low. 

Interesting call but right!  
Unemployment figures worse than even the worst forecasts and US market is up. Strange times!

Markets expect a short, sharp shock then a rebound. 

Sadly the virology would suggest otherwise.

The notion of second or even further waves of infection haven't quite filtered through to the masses yet. 

I said at the start of the thread that the markets have already seen the bottom to within a few %.

For the record then at what level will do you think that the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 will bottom out and also by what date.