Is this a bear market?

Thrugelmir

Bruckner said:

torrence said:

we've seen the market bottom already

This was before all the recent gains. So are we at the start of a new bull market?

I admire your optimism. 

Bruckner

torrence said:

we've seen the market bottom already.

So are we at the start of a new bull market?
This was in the context of the market bottom being called soon after before all the recent gains. 

torrence

Well I said we'd seen the bottom of the market a couple of weeks ago, and I said the Fed would keep turning on the taps and that first 2tn that rallied the market was just for starters. So it proves, another 2tn today and it's not finished yet.

Anyone seriously still think we haven't seen the bottom of this market?

EdGasketTheSecond

Yep; you can only prop up a dead economy so long. This is storing up disaster for the future.

Thrugelmir

I'm enjoying the good weather while it lasts. The "Sell in May and go away" adage may have a greater meaning than usual this year. 

Prism

Over the next few months we may find a cure for this virus or it might mutate into something even worse. The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

torrence

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Yep; you can only prop up a dead economy so long. This is storing up disaster for the future.

They only need to prop it up until the current crisis is eventually resolved. However long that takes, they will keep on doing it. They have to.
As for disaster in "the future", yes but that could easily be another decade and another bull market in the meantime. 

Thrugelmir

Prism said:

Over the next few months we may find a cure for this virus or it might mutate into something even worse. The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

There's no magical time saving method of creating a vaccine. The impact on Africa and India etc isn't even on peoples minds. We are only focussing on ourselves. 

EdGasketTheSecond

Prism said:

The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

   Who wants to wait 10+ years to get their money back? You want to be making it now.

   Hardly any company is going to do well in a bear market and depressed economy.

  This is evidently another crash worse than 2008; possibly worse than 1929. There are only two possible outcomes:

1) The markets crash much lower

or

2) The FED props up a sick economy by creating currency but effectively devalues the currency.

The second option seems to be happening at the moment as the FED is creating trillions of dollars but this could tip into the first option once people lose confidence that it is doing anything useful. I'm still not sure why anyone else can't see this.

Either way I'm covered; short on market and long on gold.

Prism

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Prism said:

The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

   Who wants to wait 10+ years to get their money back? You want to be making it now.

Why do I want to be making it now? Investing is a long term game. I have little interest where the market is in a couple of years nevermind a couple of months. If you are concerned about making your money back in the next few years then the advice is not to invest at all.

   Hardly any company is going to do well in a bear market and depressed economy.

  This is evidently another crash worse than 2008; possibly worse than 1929. There are only two possible outcomes:

1) The markets crash much lower

or

2) The FED props up a sick economy by creating currency but effectively devalues the currency.

The second option seems to be happening at the moment as the FED is creating trillions of dollars but this could tip into the first option once people lose confidence that it is doing anything useful. I'm still not sure why anyone else can't see this.

Either way I'm covered; short on market and long on gold.

Or maybe this crash won't be that bad at all or that long lived. You really don't know. I don't either. The only thing you are covered for is if your predictions come true. The reason that you feel that nobody else can see this chain of events you are so sure about is that simply they are not so sure. Your predictions may come true but it seems for the time being most investors (and the markets) disagree to some extent. It is your conviction about what will happen that is setting you against the common view at the moment it seems. Most seem comfortable in the fact that they don't know what is coming next.