Is this a bear market?

EdGasketTheSecond

Like rabbits caught in headlights. They will know when it hits them.

Michael121

Im curious do you predict a depression so want to keep your money safe, or do you actually want it to happen so your gold goes through the roof. 

Michael121

@EdGasketTheSecond

port_of_spain

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Who wants to wait 10+ years to get their money back? You want to be making it now.

Me. My life expectancy is a lot more than 10 years, and I want to live off my money for the rest of my life.

You are revealing what a strange way you have of looking at money management here. Either you are a super-reckless gambler, or you are financially secure enough (e.g. from owning your home outright, and having secure pensions in payment) that you can do what you like with your investable capital and it doesn't really matter if you p*ss much of it away. In the latter case, that may be fine for you, but it leads to what is very reckless advice for people who are less financially secure.

EdGasketTheSecond

Michael121 said:

Im curious do you predict a depression so want to keep your money safe, or do you actually want it to happen so your gold goes through the roof. 

I wish none of this had happened and that my shares would have continued to provide regular dividends and hopefully capital gain as well. However it has become clear now that markets have been kept too high by QE since 2008 and the pandemic has brought things to a head where the FED and other authorities have gone into further reckless currency creation which I think can only end badly. I hope to preserve value with gold and possibly recoup some losses on shares by shorting the market. I have used the recent rally to sell more shares that I missed selling on the initial way down so am in a better position now than a couple of weeks ago.

I see it as a case of needing to reposition in the light of changed external circumstances.

bigadaj

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Michael121 said:

Im curious do you predict a depression so want to keep your money safe, or do you actually want it to happen so your gold goes through the roof. 

I wish none of this had happened and that my shares would have continued to provide regular dividends and hopefully capital gain as well. However it has become clear now that markets have been kept too high by QE since 2008 and the pandemic has brought things to a head where the FED and other authorities have gone into further reckless currency creation which I think can only end badly. I hope to preserve value with gold and possibly recoup some losses on shares by shorting the market. I have used the recent rally to sell more shares that I missed selling on the initial way down so am in a better position now than a couple of weeks ago.

I see it as a case of needing to reposition in the light of changed external circumstances.

I would agree that QE and debt is concerning but believe that diversification is the key, in which case a knee jerk reaction into gold is no better than being equity heavy, an probably worse. whilst gold has an attraction, especially historically, it is just another commodity and supply will expand when demand increases, little different to other metals or oil, though with a slower response.

LHW99

I love gold, its nice and bright and shiny........but its very heavy to carry and my supermarket prefers cards at this time

torrence

If you are going short then S&P for next Monday's close. 
But not waiting to go lower than the market bottom we already had. The Fed and other central banks will keep up the stimulus as long as it takes.

Thrugelmir

Historically S&P 500 bear markets are characterised by the 2/3 - 1/3 rule. 
About 1/3 of the decline occurs in the first 2/3 of the bear market. 2/3 occurs in the final 1/3.
Navigatating through is a question of strategy while ignoring the "doomsday" media pronouncements. 

kinger101

Thrugelmir said:

Prism said:

Over the next few months we may find a cure for this virus or it might mutate into something even worse. The markets could go anywhere over the next few years but in 10+ years are likely to be higher. I'm still not sure why anyone has a strong opinion of direction over the short term - maybe they just like deluding themselves.
Maybe try focusing on companies that you can evaluate rather than markets that you can't.

There's no magical time saving method of creating a vaccine. The impact on Africa and India etc isn't even on peoples minds. We are only focussing on ourselves. 

Vaccines are not cures. They're prophylactics. 

I suspect the response in poorest countries will be very different.  The developed world's response has been about making sure health systems can cope with the number of life-threatening covid cases, while continuing to provide a high level of service to all the other non-covid patients (e.g., dialysis patients, cancer treatments, maternity etc). 

Most developed countries have between 20-40 doctors per 10,000 people.  In sub-Saharan Africa, it's usually <1.  And with the most rudimentary of hospitals.  Which also already have to deal with things like malaria.  I suspect these countries are on the path to herd immunity through lack of other options.