Is this a bear market?

Prism

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Have you considered if the markets are still way overvalued in the current situation?

You are asking someone who invested for the first time on monday if they think that the markets are overvalued? And recommending they consider shorting?
You are being completely irresponsible here. You will be recommending gold next... oh hang on..

EdGasketTheSecond

How would you know?

Prism

EdGasketTheSecond said:

How would you know?

Know what? What the markets will do next? I haven't got a clue and neither do you. I'm not the one recommending high risk and volatile strategies

EdGasketTheSecond

Sorry I was replying to "Have you considered that you're not typing this from your own private island? "

bowlhead99

Prism said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Have you considered if the markets are still way overvalued in the current situation?

You are asking someone who invested for the first time on monday if they think that the markets are overvalued? And recommending they consider shorting?
You are being completely irresponsible here. You will be recommending gold next... oh hang on..

No, the person you're talking about who said they invested for the first time on monday said for himself that "Obviously it's a guess, but I don't think we are anywhere near the market bottom. I suspect this will be a historic crash".  That person went on to say, before revealing that he hadn't invested before this week: "If I knew how to short I'd do it now, but I'm a novice".

If someone is a novice and looking for education, it is not 'completely irresponsible' to give them an example of a product that can be used by a retail investor to short within their pension or ISA. Nobody is actually saying "I recommend you consider shorting and then perhaps buy this product and short the market, you will make money from it". But if someone says something like "I don't know how to short but would like to" it is not outrageous to give them an example for further reading. Otherwise how does one ever learn? Should they instead go to some binary options site or take some paid online course for suckers?  The example was given before the person they said they had only made their first investments this week.  

Overreaction on your part IMO.

torrence

See the S&P and Dow today. I said right at the top we've already seen the bottom of this market, and to the doom and gloom responses I said with confidence that the S&P and Dow wouldn't give up their gains on the back of even terrible economic data.

After a short lockdown the US people will get bored with it and want to get back to work. An antibody test will soon be available and will confirm high numbers of people have already got antibodies and without symptoms and can return to normal life without putting anyone in danger.

This will all be under control quicker than all the media drama suggested and the US economy will be back on track by the end of the year. Future earnings on stocks will still be the best option out there and that's where the money will flow.

Falls of another 30% from here? I say again, rubbish, within a few % we have seen the bottom of this bear market.

coyrls

torrence said:

An antibody test will soon be available and will confirm high numbers of people have already got antibodies and without symptoms and can return to normal life without putting anyone in danger.

Wow, a medical super forecaster as well as a financial one!

MaxiRobriguez

torrence said:

See the S&P and Dow today. I said right at the top we've already seen the bottom of this market, and to the doom and gloom responses I said with confidence that the S&P and Dow wouldn't give up their gains on the back of even terrible economic data.

After a short lockdown the US people will get bored with it and want to get back to work. An antibody test will soon be available and will confirm high numbers of people have already got antibodies and without symptoms and can return to normal life without putting anyone in danger.

This will all be under control quicker than all the media drama suggested and the US economy will be back on track by the end of the year. Future earnings on stocks will still be the best option out there and that's where the money will flow.

Falls of another 30% from here? I say again, rubbish, within a few % we have seen the bottom of this bear market.

You don't *know* this, so stop asserting it is a truth.

Markets might well go up from here, they could go decline further. Punters on this forum need to understand both scenarios are still in play and consider that when choosing to invest over the next few weeks.

torrence

I know nobody "knows" but this isn't about Plato. It just surprises me that some people cannot see how things will go even in broad terms.

Markets could fall another 30% - sure, and an asteroid could hit the earth. But in the real world it will be closer to how I said at the top of this post.

I have all the same information as everyone else and it must be clear this market did its worst last week. It will shrug off any bad data now and people will soon want to get back to work whatever. Does anyone really think people, especially in the US, will accept lockdown for more than a few weeks?

Does anyone really think that the antibody test won't be ready asap so the economy can get back to work asap? If even I can figure this out then the market makers know this too.

Watch the S&P, don't expect it to close below the previous low in this bear. It's more up than down from now on.

Thrugelmir

torrence said:

 Does anyone really think people, especially in the US, will accept lockdown for more than a few weeks?

What are they going to do. Come onto the streets to riot, rob and pillage?   Benefit claimants rose by 3 million last week. Exceeding the record set in 1982 of 695,000. Trump has had to get the helicopters flying for a good reason, placate social unrest.