Is this a bear market?

tigerspill

torrence said:

See the S&P and Dow today. I said right at the top we've already seen the bottom of this market, and to the doom and gloom responses I said with confidence that the S&P and Dow wouldn't give up their gains on the back of even terrible economic data.

After a short lockdown the US people will get bored with it and want to get back to work. An antibody test will soon be available and will confirm high numbers of people have already got antibodies and without symptoms and can return to normal life without putting anyone in danger.

This will all be under control quicker than all the media drama suggested and the US economy will be back on track by the end of the year. Future earnings on stocks will still be the best option out there and that's where the money will flow.

Falls of another 30% from here? I say again, rubbish, within a few % we have seen the bottom of this bear market.

Did you put your house on this hunch (guess).  Are you now vastly richer than you were?  If not, clearly you didn't have any real conviction behind your guess.

bowlhead99

tigerspill said:

torrence said:

See the S&P and Dow today. I said right at the top we've already seen the bottom of this market, and to the doom and gloom responses I said with confidence that the S&P and Dow wouldn't give up their gains on the back of even terrible economic data.

After a short lockdown the US people will get bored with it and want to get back to work. An antibody test will soon be available and will confirm high numbers of people have already got antibodies and without symptoms and can return to normal life without putting anyone in danger.

This will all be under control quicker than all the media drama suggested and the US economy will be back on track by the end of the year. Future earnings on stocks will still be the best option out there and that's where the money will flow.

Falls of another 30% from here? I say again, rubbish, within a few % we have seen the bottom of this bear market.

Did you put your house on this hunch (guess).  Are you now vastly richer than you were?  If not, clearly you didn't have any real conviction behind your guess.

The Dow is already 1% lower than the 22394 it reached a few minutes before noon, NY time. So hopefully the whole farm hasn't been bet. 

eskbanker

bowlhead99 said:
So hopefully the whole farm hasn't been bet. 

I thought I could smell something on this thread....

torrence

No not vastly richer yet, and with what I have to invest I won't be even when the market has recovered. But I bought last week with what cash was ready to invest, so I will see a gain on that and be happy with that. I think that's all most of us are trying to do.

Thrugelmir

torrence said:

I think that's all most of us are trying to do.

If the market is rising then you are in the majority. Remember some else is selling you the stock. 

EdGasketTheSecond

Thrugelmir said:

torrence said:

I think that's all most of us are trying to do.

If the market is rising then you are in the majority. Remember some else is selling you the stock. 

That would be me selling.

torrence you sound new to all this, you do realise that the PE chart for markets is up at a peak indicating crash territory don't you? I hope you have not bet the house on the current market.

torrence

Not sure what point you are making there. So someone is selling? So they are taking a bit of profit from the recent rally. But it doesn't counter my point right throughout this thread that we've seen the bottom of this bear to within a few % already for all the reasons I have said. 

MaxiRobriguez

torrence said:

Not sure what point you are making there. So someone is selling? So they are taking a bit of profit from the recent rally. But it doesn't counter my point right throughout this thread that we've seen the bottom of this bear to within a few % already for all the reasons I have said. 

But your "reasons" aren't truth yet, and they hold as much weight as a counter argument which says the virus will mutate and come back every few years with the need for temporary quarantines not abating for a decade, with stocks never recovering. 

Username999

Personally I don't think we've seen the 'bottom'.
Expect SP500 to go below 2000 some time in the next 6 months.
IMHO 

jamesmorgan

It would be an incredibly unusual bear market where the first reversal indicated the bottom of the market.  Not impossible but very unlikely.  A  much more likely scenario is that the bear market will last a year or two where we see multiple reversals each one lower than the one before.  Of course that doesn't mean that buying in now is wrong (and certainly a wiser decision than buying the market a month ago), however, I suspect better value will be to buy in the following months