Could we be heading towards a Great Depression?

spiritus

Perhaps the debate about what is being done to combat the virus should be on another thread-it's an important discussion to have but this thread has veered off track.....

talexuser

IF the Hong Kong news is correct and clamping down succesfully is followed by a second wave, and IF it can affect those already recovered I can't see how we can get back to any normality without a full comand economy with universal income while waiting for a vaccine to arrive?

badger09

talexuser said:

IF the Hong Kong news is correct and clamping down succesfully is followed by a second wave, and IF it can affect those already recovered I can't see how we can get back to any normality without a full comand economy with universal income while waiting for a vaccine to arrive?

Without wishing to derail further...
My son lives in HK and he's told me today that he must now work from home again, after a period of relative 'normality'. Also bars & restaurants are no longer allowed to serve alcohol - presumably to deter most people, especially the expats, without actually closing those businesses down completely.  

Thrugelmir

talexuser said:

IF the Hong Kong news is correct and clamping down succesfully is followed by a second wave, and IF it can affect those already recovered I can't see how we can get back to any normality without a full comand economy with universal income while waiting for a vaccine to arrive?

Until the threat is eradicated 100%. Then the uncertainty will remain. Even the optimistic must accept that a prolonged period of restriction on global trade is inevitable. Life is far from normal. 

Primark have apparently imposed Force Majure on their suppliers. Any orders not in their distribution warehouses will be cancelled and not paid for. The effect will ripple through the global fashion supply chain. The tip of a very large iceberg it's safe to assume. 

kinger101

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

LHW99 said:

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Frankly our responce has been poor. We have done a 180 degree U turn from "herd immunity", let 60% of the population get infected, no need to test anyone coming in from anywhere in the world, etc when the reality of  exponential growth kicked in. German deaths are around 72, ours around 177, and they should be ahead of the curve compared to us (they have 5 times as many intensive care beds per capita than us). Not having tests for NHS staff is a scandal, as is test monitoring the spread.across the population to selectively isolate in good time. 

Direct comparison in terms of number of deaths is meaningless.Take a look at San Marino to see how concentration of population impacts the number of people infected in % terms for example. The hot spots in the UK appear to be down to people ignoring the medical advice.
As for intensive care facilties. Our major local trust hospital only has one patient in ICU. Finally as for testing, there's a time lag in obtaining the results and the initial kits were only 60% accurate. 
Never understand why we run ourselves down so much.  Take a look at the US. They've serious problems. Not least due to a lack of a universal healthcare system. 

I also wonder - if they tried to test everyone who thought they could have Covid:

a) How much time (never mind money) would it require, therefore taking NHS workers off the front line?

b) How many of those who tested positive, but whose symptoms were mild would beseige the local hospitals demanding treatment, diverting resources from those who really do?

I understand part of the difference between us and Germany is that Germany can write a cause of death as pneumonia, only adding Covid as a secondary factor, so the death rate only reflects those who have no other evidential disease where Covid is given as the main cause.

Quicker testing is going to have to be part of the mix quite soon.  Dozens of kits have been available for some time already, and it is rather poor that the UK isn't even able to routinely test NHS staff yet.

 

72 hour turnaround of results makes routine testing somewhat of a challenge. Given the exposure that front line staff have. This is a rapidly moving situation. Once the first Doctor or Nurse dies perhaps that will focus the minds of those that are endangering everyone else.  

It doesn't take 72 hours to get results.  A qPCR assay takes around 2 hours.  The newer antibody tests are less than 5 minutes.