Could we be heading towards a Great Depression?

spiritus

I just read a casual throw away remark on another forum and it stopped me in my tracks.
Are our savings better protected now than they would have been in the 1930's (I'm thinking worst case scenario)?

LobsterMemory

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but there wasn't any protection in the 1930s so of course they are.

Malthusian

The worst case scenario is the end of civilisation / Marxist revolution, so your savings are as vulnerable to that as they ever were.

In the boring and commonplace scenario of your bank going bust, the FSCS is guaranteed to step in. In the 30s you would have been crossing your fingers that either another bank or the Government bailed out your bank on an ad-hoc basis. Or that they would have enough money to eventually pay you when the bank was liquidated.

EdGasketTheSecond

Yes I think there is > 50% chance of a depression followed by hyperinflation. I am moving a good chunk of my investments into gold and silver.

spiritus

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Yes I think there is > 50% chance of a depression followed by hyperinflation. I am moving a good chunk of my investments into gold and silver.

Gold doesn't seem to be doing that well https://goldprice.org/.
Why is that??

EdGasketTheSecond

Have a look at the 2008 crisis you will see the same. Initially there is a dash for cash to cover margin and Repo commitments, any sort of asset gets sold to raise cash. Once that is over gold should rally strongly.

Prism

spiritus said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Yes I think there is > 50% chance of a depression followed by hyperinflation. I am moving a good chunk of my investments into gold and silver.

Gold doesn't seem to be doing that well https://goldprice.org/.
Why is that??

Dollar goes up and gold goes down

tropic_of_Username015

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Have a look at the 2008 crisis you will see the same. Initially there is a dash for cash to cover margin and Repo commitments, any sort of asset gets sold to raise cash. Once that is over gold should rally strongly.

If it were that obvious, the smart money would be buying gold in anticipation, and as a result there would be no initial dip in the gold price after all.

The way you are convinced that you can explain short-term price moves, and be confident what the next move will be, is simply delusional. Nobody has that ability. Certainly not you.

Doubtless when it goes wrong, you'll be blaming somebody for "fixing" the markets.

You're not going to listen to me, but I think it's worth warning other people not to listen to you.

Malthusian

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Have a look at the 2008 crisis you will see the same. Initially there is a dash for cash to cover margin and Repo commitments, any sort of asset gets sold to raise cash. Once that is over gold should rally strongly.

Sure, like it did after 2009, when gold did not so much rally as limp to a miserable 90% return as at today's date since March 2009, compared to 250% for the FTSE World despite gold being higher risk.

Gold hasn't done well for the same reason Bitcoin and my lottery numbers haven't done well, because it's indistinguishable from randomness. It is a myth that it always goes up when other asset classes go down.

markj113

spiritus said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Yes I think there is > 50% chance of a depression followed by hyperinflation. I am moving a good chunk of my investments into gold and silver.

Gold doesn't seem to be doing that well https://goldprice.org/.
Why is that??

Not doing that well?

recently hit an all time high in GBP, pulled back a little but still doing well.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/gdfHXwO.png[/img]

bowlhead99

mcooke999 said:

SPAM!

And the solution to that is to requote the spam link in your response??

Suggest 'Miked' goes to the referrals board instead.