Could we be heading towards a Great Depression?

womble_87

Username999 said:

womble_87 said:

There is no issue with the food supply. In fact once every one has stocked up in panic things should calm down once people realise, there is no issue with the food supply.

There certainly is an issue with food supply!
Supply chains are broken.

In which case official rationing will be required. And in the event of staff shortage, the army are on stand by. No need to panic. We are not going to get to a situation where there is no food at all.

If you think about how much trash food is produced, and how much factory and delivery resources this takes. Low demand products are now being cut out to make room for in demand products. In addition a person can only buy so much extra.

coastline

Thrugelmir said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

womble_87 said:

There is no issue with the food supply. In fact once every one has stocked up in panic things should calm down once people realise, there is no issue with the food supply.

They just announced on radio 4 news that supermarkets are saying the next big problem is with supply!

Factories are geared for a certain level of demand/production. Impossible for the machines to produce more. People unselfishly stock piling is the real problem. 
There'll be a glut shortly. 

I hope you are right because what I've seen since Monday is disappointing. I've been in five supermarkets instead of the usual one only to find some people trying to take the shelf if they could. 

Shedman

Anybody else feeling the joys of spring today as their portfolio only loses £1k or so instead of the usual £5-10k daily 

And in other good news the leftover Xmas turkey is actually getting eaten before the following Xmas this year (and I might even devour one of the Xmas puds from several years ago).

Got to try and keep smiling haven't you. 

sebtomato

If all workers are staying home, apart from medical staff, emergency staff etc. then I can't really see the regular food supply (supermarkets) having stock for very long, so in that respect, people are right to stock pile. If there are no factory workers, no truck drivers, nobody at warehouses and shops, then it could get empty quite quickly.
I guess there will still be farms and we will still get access to some raw products, like meat and vegetables, but habits may have to change from processed food (probably for the better).

Sebo027

bowlhead99 said:

Brido88 said:

Username999 said:

Brido88 said:

• The fact that the oil price is at a historic low ....

It's not.

What's "not"?

Did you just literally quote someone quoting you saying the oil price is at a historic low and replying that it's not, and then wonder what was 'not'??

For the latter half of the 80s and all through the '90s the average annual Brent oil price was in the $12-$18 range. Today it's $28.

Does it really 'compound the economic misery' if energy price and raw materials costs for plastics are reduced? It's misery for oil drilling towns, but not so much for the end user, which is most Brits.

The high probablility of 5% contraction you mention in the US is a projection for Q2, not for the year as a whole - Q3 and Q4 are expected to bounce back, with the equivalent period a year later expected to be a very positive period given the low comparative against which it would be measured. Of course it remains to be seen how output and productivity come back. Retail sales in China were 20% down in Jan and Feb over prior year and the fact that the number of new cases has fallen off does not mean people are back working and buying again yet - the knock on to supply chains has not been fully seen. Yesterday, Tencent reported 25% YOY growth for the fourth quarter of 2019 but people pricing assets don't know how the numbers will look for 2020, particularly for the companies operating with workers on the ground rather than tech in the cloud.

Aye, I did. That's because the quote didn't show up and I didn't realise I had to click to see the exact line he was referring to   
The oil price has been out of the $20 per barrel range since 1974 (inflation adjusted figures), with the exception of 1998 where it crashed to $18 for a year. So, I stand corrected, it's not a historic low, not yet.

Yes, 5% contraction for Q2 and possible upswing and start of a recovery in Q3 - if the fiscal measures are effective and if the governments can smother the COVID-19 virus outbreak in a few months, which remains to be seen. 

ChesterDog

Shedman said:

Anybody else feeling the joys of spring today as their portfolio only loses £1k or so instead of the usual £5-10k daily 

£5-10k daily?
...luxury! 🙃

womble_87

sebtomato said:

If all workers are staying home, apart from medical staff, emergency staff etc. then I can't really see the regular food supply (supermarkets) having stock for very long, so in that respect, people are right to stock pile. If there are no factory workers, no truck drivers, nobody at warehouses and shops, then it could get empty quite quickly.
I guess there will still be farms and we will still get access to some raw products, like meat and vegetables, but habits may have to change from processed food (probably for the better).

They (involved with production and delivery of foods etc) would be classed as key workers and would not be staying home unless they are ill, in which case the army is on stand by as a last resort. People and the media should stop spreading this fear mongering which only adds to the problem. 

The Department for Education has published a list of "key workers" deemed "essential" to the COVID-19 response and whose children will continue to be cared for at school amid the pandemic.

Food and other necessary goods
Includes those involved in the production, processing, distribution, sale and delivery of food.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-essential-key-workers-who-can-still-send-children-to-school-11960643

afis1904

What the poster above that but also creating processed food often only requires a very small amount of actual human labour

Scotbot

parcival said:

Could be a lot worse than an economic depression. Whilst at present the Government has the majority of the population onside, in a couple of months when thousands have lost jobs and many businesses have gone bust we could see major civil disobedience. Unless the measures in place start to work within a few months I think the mood of the nation will turn very ugly.

If in a couple of months the measures are not working there is no point in carrying on the restrictions is there? 

EdGasketTheSecond

I think the restrictions are to prevent the NHS being overloaded and bodies piling up at the crems.