Could we be heading towards a Great Depression?

Sebo027

ruperts said:

The South Korea approach seems far more sensible to me. No need to wreck your economy with mass closures and social distancing, just test as many people as you possibly can, use technology to assist with contact tracing and efficiently quarantine anyone at risk. Alas, it's probably too late for us to adopt those methods, for this wave at least.

In general the response from the Asian countries affected early has been tremendous in comparison to developed Europe, largely credited to the learnings from the SARS outbreak. 
A friend of mine has just come back from Singapore (which is currently on most countries "red list" - not because of the number of cases but because they were affected early) and said they have temperature checks on going in public places, handing out hand sanitizer and masks to citizens free of charge, setting up hand sanitizer stations in all public areas, sanitizing handrails, etc. and covering keypads with cling film and changing it every 30 minutes. Basically a whole raft of measures that they implemented immediately to smother the spread. 

talexuser

Frankly our responce has been poor. We have done a 180 degree U turn from "herd immunity", let 60% of the population get infected, no need to test anyone coming in from anywhere in the world, etc when the reality of  exponential growth kicked in. German deaths are around 72, ours around 177, and they should be ahead of the curve compared to us (they have 5 times as many intensive care beds per capita than us). Not having tests for NHS staff is a scandal, as is test monitoring the spread.across the population to selectively isolate in good time. 

Thrugelmir

talexuser said:

Frankly our responce has been poor. We have done a 180 degree U turn from "herd immunity", let 60% of the population get infected, no need to test anyone coming in from anywhere in the world, etc when the reality of  exponential growth kicked in. German deaths are around 72, ours around 177, and they should be ahead of the curve compared to us (they have 5 times as many intensive care beds per capita than us). Not having tests for NHS staff is a scandal, as is test monitoring the spread.across the population to selectively isolate in good time. 

Direct comparison in terms of number of deaths is meaningless.Take a look at San Marino to see how concentration of population impacts the number of people infected in % terms for example. The hot spots in the UK appear to be down to people ignoring the medical advice.
As for intensive care facilties. Our major local trust hospital only has one patient in ICU. Finally as for testing, there's a time lag in obtaining the results and the initial kits were only 60% accurate. 
Never understand why we run ourselves down so much.  Take a look at the US. They've serious problems. Not least due to a lack of a universal healthcare system. 

talexuser

The infection growth figures will tell us in the end how good our strategy was. Singapore/Hong Kong/South Korea have shown what you can achieve with existing testing. 

Scotbot

talexuser said:

The infection growth figures will tell us in the end how good our strategy was. Singapore/Hong Kong/South Korea have shown what you can achieve with existing testing. 

And in the case of HK and Singapore a hot climate 

bigadaj

Scotbot said:

talexuser said:

The infection growth figures will tell us in the end how good our strategy was. Singapore/Hong Kong/South Korea have shown what you can achieve with existing testing. 

And in the case of HK and Singapore a hot climate 

hong kong isnt hot, not this time of year anyway.

LHW99

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Frankly our responce has been poor. We have done a 180 degree U turn from "herd immunity", let 60% of the population get infected, no need to test anyone coming in from anywhere in the world, etc when the reality of  exponential growth kicked in. German deaths are around 72, ours around 177, and they should be ahead of the curve compared to us (they have 5 times as many intensive care beds per capita than us). Not having tests for NHS staff is a scandal, as is test monitoring the spread.across the population to selectively isolate in good time. 

Direct comparison in terms of number of deaths is meaningless.Take a look at San Marino to see how concentration of population impacts the number of people infected in % terms for example. The hot spots in the UK appear to be down to people ignoring the medical advice.
As for intensive care facilties. Our major local trust hospital only has one patient in ICU. Finally as for testing, there's a time lag in obtaining the results and the initial kits were only 60% accurate. 
Never understand why we run ourselves down so much.  Take a look at the US. They've serious problems. Not least due to a lack of a universal healthcare system. 

I also wonder - if they tried to test everyone who thought they could have Covid:

a) How much time (never mind money) would it require, therefore taking NHS workers off the front line?

b) How many of those who tested positive, but whose symptoms were mild would beseige the local hospitals demanding treatment, diverting resources from those who really do?

I understand part of the difference between us and Germany is that Germany can write a cause of death as pneumonia, only adding Covid as a secondary factor, so the death rate only reflects those who have no other evidential disease where Covid is given as the main cause.

Thrugelmir

talexuser said:

The infection growth figures will tell us in the end how good our strategy was. Singapore/Hong Kong/South Korea have shown what you can achieve with existing testing. 

More telling is recovery rates. As of the other day 60% of infections in SK were in women. 90% of women in SK don't smoke. Health plays a very important part in the severity of the disease to an individuals immune system. In the end the data will determine the primary causes of death. Going to vary considerably between countries. 

kinger101

LHW99 said:

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Frankly our responce has been poor. We have done a 180 degree U turn from "herd immunity", let 60% of the population get infected, no need to test anyone coming in from anywhere in the world, etc when the reality of  exponential growth kicked in. German deaths are around 72, ours around 177, and they should be ahead of the curve compared to us (they have 5 times as many intensive care beds per capita than us). Not having tests for NHS staff is a scandal, as is test monitoring the spread.across the population to selectively isolate in good time. 

Direct comparison in terms of number of deaths is meaningless.Take a look at San Marino to see how concentration of population impacts the number of people infected in % terms for example. The hot spots in the UK appear to be down to people ignoring the medical advice.
As for intensive care facilties. Our major local trust hospital only has one patient in ICU. Finally as for testing, there's a time lag in obtaining the results and the initial kits were only 60% accurate. 
Never understand why we run ourselves down so much.  Take a look at the US. They've serious problems. Not least due to a lack of a universal healthcare system. 

I also wonder - if they tried to test everyone who thought they could have Covid:

a) How much time (never mind money) would it require, therefore taking NHS workers off the front line?

b) How many of those who tested positive, but whose symptoms were mild would beseige the local hospitals demanding treatment, diverting resources from those who really do?

I understand part of the difference between us and Germany is that Germany can write a cause of death as pneumonia, only adding Covid as a secondary factor, so the death rate only reflects those who have no other evidential disease where Covid is given as the main cause.

Nobody sensible is suggesting testing everyone.  In South Korea, they've tried to rapidly test people who've been in isolation with people testing positive, so that they can be quarantined at the earliest opportunity post infection.  Otherwise, it's on average 5 days before people become symptomatic, and they can potentially pass on infection for a day or two while pre-symptomatic, or worse, spread infection for the duration if they remain asymptomatic.

Quicker testing is going to have to be part of the mix quite soon.  Dozens of kits have been available for some time already, and it is rather poor that the UK isn't even able to routinely test NHS staff yet.

 

Thrugelmir

kinger101 said:

LHW99 said:

Thrugelmir said:

talexuser said:

Frankly our responce has been poor. We have done a 180 degree U turn from "herd immunity", let 60% of the population get infected, no need to test anyone coming in from anywhere in the world, etc when the reality of  exponential growth kicked in. German deaths are around 72, ours around 177, and they should be ahead of the curve compared to us (they have 5 times as many intensive care beds per capita than us). Not having tests for NHS staff is a scandal, as is test monitoring the spread.across the population to selectively isolate in good time. 

Direct comparison in terms of number of deaths is meaningless.Take a look at San Marino to see how concentration of population impacts the number of people infected in % terms for example. The hot spots in the UK appear to be down to people ignoring the medical advice.
As for intensive care facilties. Our major local trust hospital only has one patient in ICU. Finally as for testing, there's a time lag in obtaining the results and the initial kits were only 60% accurate. 
Never understand why we run ourselves down so much.  Take a look at the US. They've serious problems. Not least due to a lack of a universal healthcare system. 

I also wonder - if they tried to test everyone who thought they could have Covid:

a) How much time (never mind money) would it require, therefore taking NHS workers off the front line?

b) How many of those who tested positive, but whose symptoms were mild would beseige the local hospitals demanding treatment, diverting resources from those who really do?

I understand part of the difference between us and Germany is that Germany can write a cause of death as pneumonia, only adding Covid as a secondary factor, so the death rate only reflects those who have no other evidential disease where Covid is given as the main cause.

Quicker testing is going to have to be part of the mix quite soon.  Dozens of kits have been available for some time already, and it is rather poor that the UK isn't even able to routinely test NHS staff yet.

 

72 hour turnaround of results makes routine testing somewhat of a challenge. Given the exposure that front line staff have. This is a rapidly moving situation. Once the first Doctor or Nurse dies perhaps that will focus the minds of those that are endangering everyone else.