Could we be heading towards a Great Depression?

spiritus

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The restrictions worked in China and Singapore

A short sentence but with huge importance.
We seem to be inching towards the measures that China imposed but we're doing it incrementally which by it's very pace may not have the same affect it did in China.
Why on earth have we not copied what China have done??? Screw civil liberties. If I'm told to stay indoors for four weeks then I will do it. This all seems to be so....British. The PM clearly wanted pubs and restaurants to close but it has taken until today to actually order it. Up until today it was only "advice".

Thrugelmir

spiritus said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The restrictions worked in China and Singapore

Why on earth have we not copied what China have done???

What do you know that the scientific and medical experts don't?  

EdGasketTheSecond

Also we don't know whether the virus will flare up again in China. It is possible that they have only slowed it right down for the moment and as soon as they relax restrictions infections might rise again. Hence there could be endless cycles of virus cases rising followed by more lockdown. It is possible that the economic burden becomes more dangerous than the virus and the only solution in the end is to let people take their chances with it.

YellowStarling

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Also we don't know whether the virus will flare up again in China. It is possible that they have only slowed it right down for the moment and as soon as they relax restrictions infections might rise again. Hence there could be endless cycles of virus cases rising followed by more lockdown. It is possible that the economic burden becomes more dangerous than the virus and the only solution in the end is to let people take their chances with it.

I personally think this is most likely - I think the social restrictions that the world is now becoming familiar with will be cemented as standard epidemic and pandemic tools (I would suspect they always have been part of the toolkit; it's just not since the 1918 influenza has the world at large been subjected to them, and there shall not be many left from that time). 

These would be turned on and off like taps, until such point a mass-administered vaccination is cost-effective/feasibly delivered through schools and GPs.  Once mass-vaccinated, the virus (both this and future bugs) would be downgraded to be considered similar to other coronaviruses (not sure of the pluralisation), influenzas, etc. and no further restrictions would be considered for that particular strain. 

So I expect China to have a secondary outbreak in the absence of a vaccine, and I expect them to anticipate this.  I think it is all about balancing economic damage against healthcare capacity until the "permanent" control (vaccination or mass resistance/immunity) is eventually realised.

Anonymous101

YellowStarling said:

These would be turned on and off like taps, until such point a mass-administered vaccination is cost-effective/feasibly delivered through schools and GPs.  Once mass-vaccinated, the virus (both this and future bugs) would be downgraded to be considered similar to other coronaviruses (not sure of the pluralisation), influenzas, etc. and no further restrictions would be considered for that particular strain. 

So I expect China to have a secondary outbreak in the absence of a vaccine, and I expect them to anticipate this.  I think it is all about balancing economic damage against healthcare capacity until the "permanent" control (vaccination or mass resistance/immunity) is eventually realised.

This has effectively been said tonight. With the aim of keeping the load on the NHS manageable they'll turn the restrictions on and off.
I certainly think China will have another similar flair up... its logical if you consider that most of the population won't have any immunity to the virus. I believe the herd immunity theory, for me the trick is to keep the numbers infected at any one time to a manageable amount. The UK's approach seems to me to be the most sensible both from an economic, societal and infection control perspective.

ruperts

The South Korea approach seems far more sensible to me. No need to wreck your economy with mass closures and social distancing, just test as many people as you possibly can, use technology to assist with contact tracing and efficiently quarantine anyone at risk. Alas, it's probably too late for us to adopt those methods, for this wave at least.

spiritus

Thrugelmir said:

spiritus said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The restrictions worked in China and Singapore

Why on earth have we not copied what China have done???

What do you know that the scientific and medical experts don't?  

Are you assuming that British scientists and experts know more than the scientists and experts from other countries. I am presuming however, just because we're being told decisions being made are led by the science one has to assume other countries are also being led by science but clearly their science is different to ours which worries me a little

spiritus

YellowStarling said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Also we don't know whether the virus will flare up again in China. It is possible that they have only slowed it right down for the moment and as soon as they relax restrictions infections might rise again. Hence there could be endless cycles of virus cases rising followed by more lockdown. It is possible that the economic burden becomes more dangerous than the virus and the only solution in the end is to let people take their chances with it.

I personally think this is most likely - I think the social restrictions that the world is now becoming familiar with will be cemented as standard epidemic and pandemic tools (I would suspect they always have been part of the toolkit; it's just not since the 1918 influenza has the world at large been subjected to them, and there shall not be many left from that time). 

These would be turned on and off like taps, until such point a mass-administered vaccination is cost-effective/feasibly delivered through schools and GPs.  Once mass-vaccinated, the virus (both this and future bugs) would be downgraded to be considered similar to other coronaviruses (not sure of the pluralisation), influenzas, etc. and no further restrictions would be considered for that particular strain. 

So I expect China to have a secondary outbreak in the absence of a vaccine, and I expect them to anticipate this.  I think it is all about balancing economic damage against healthcare capacity until the "permanent" control (vaccination or mass resistance/immunity) is eventually realised.

And one has to take the news that is offically released from China with a pinch of propaganda salt

Thrugelmir

spiritus said:

Thrugelmir said:

spiritus said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The restrictions worked in China and Singapore

Why on earth have we not copied what China have done???

What do you know that the scientific and medical experts don't?  

Are you assuming that British scientists and experts know more than the scientists and experts from other countries. I am presuming however, just because we're being told decisions being made are led by the science one has to assume other countries are also being led by science but clearly their science is different to ours which worries me a little

Not at all. Countries will adjust tact according to their own needs on a daily basis. All are heading along a similar path. Cultures differ widely. A higher proportion than elsewhere is being hospitalised in the USA of under 60's for example. 

Thrugelmir

spiritus said:

YellowStarling said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Also we don't know whether the virus will flare up again in China. It is possible that they have only slowed it right down for the moment and as soon as they relax restrictions infections might rise again. Hence there could be endless cycles of virus cases rising followed by more lockdown. It is possible that the economic burden becomes more dangerous than the virus and the only solution in the end is to let people take their chances with it.

I personally think this is most likely - I think the social restrictions that the world is now becoming familiar with will be cemented as standard epidemic and pandemic tools (I would suspect they always have been part of the toolkit; it's just not since the 1918 influenza has the world at large been subjected to them, and there shall not be many left from that time). 

These would be turned on and off like taps, until such point a mass-administered vaccination is cost-effective/feasibly delivered through schools and GPs.  Once mass-vaccinated, the virus (both this and future bugs) would be downgraded to be considered similar to other coronaviruses (not sure of the pluralisation), influenzas, etc. and no further restrictions would be considered for that particular strain. 

So I expect China to have a secondary outbreak in the absence of a vaccine, and I expect them to anticipate this.  I think it is all about balancing economic damage against healthcare capacity until the "permanent" control (vaccination or mass resistance/immunity) is eventually realised.

And one has to take the news that is offically released from China with a pinch of propaganda salt

They inflate their GDP figures. One is concerned that the virus figures (which many questioned as being massaged in February) are more for internal propaganda use than international consumption.