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Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far
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Another good day for AMRS. Green when everything else was red. Some large buys (I think - either that or shorts covering) today. Graham Tanaka comparing Amyris to Tesla can only be helping:It's been a while since Arrowhead has been mentioned in this thread, but over the weekend we have an AASLD Meeting, and we may get some early data relating to the ongoing HBV trial which many of us think may produce FC's (Functional Cures). The share price could be moving on Monday.Not a bad end to the week overall, with Mrs Brock's portfolio leading the bounce back due mainly to Amyris. Combined value for all individual stock portfolios was up over £16K since last Friday's close to £120,303.62
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Hope everyone is well and hanging in there. Yet another torrid week for tech. Not sure how much longer this can last, but as someone investing for the long term, once again, all I see this as, is noise and/or potential buying opportunities.In the mean time fundamentals are at the very least intact, if not improving for the stocks that I'm holding. Here are a few highlights in case anyone missed them.Arrowhead:Another competitor's drug fails.TBIO CF RNA therapeutic (note NOT RNAi) trial data unimpressive. TBIO goes from $25+ @ close Thurs to $16.45 @ close Fri/today. Many of these next gen therapies can seem so promising, but they're just as risky as small molecules (very hit n miss, with the emphasis on "miss"), unlike RNAi, which shows consistency where ever it's correctly applied.Although ARWR is in a bit of a temporary data-drought at the moment, and I think that may last another 0.5-2 months, after that we should get a data-deluge, mostly over the 2nd half of 2021. Someone posted a comprehensive timetable of dates over on Twitter:There was also a bit more colour HBV early/previous data in this slide presentation (slide 12):..and an updated presentation with more data showing how effective JNJ-3989 is (slides 6, 7, 8, 9):Lastly, a new SA article (focusing on ATT) published that is well worth a read (before it disappears behind a pay wall): https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415062-arrowhead-steady-progress-lead-indication-vast-pipelineAmyris:Entered into another (new) deal:Investor presentation:CEO J. Mello said both the deals which everyone has been waiting for were effectively done deals, and would be closed by the end of the month.Evofem:EVO100 data found its way into a prestigious publicationAlso Phexxi sales date update
So although holders of these stocks are down on paper, the prospects for the above stocks in the near future are brighter than ever IMHO.. yet the total stock portfolio value was down to £119,347.38, about 1K down on last Friday's close.There was one other fly in the ointment which may have unsettled biotech investors, but I really don't think the majority of biotech investors need worry, and sector should spring back in due course. The only ones who need be worried are those invested in companies they know little or nothing about, and some of those may not be up to scratch - not the case here. Otherwise it's just a case of being patient in the knowledge that the market will eventually notice how undervalued these stocks are.Lastly, here are a few random (but related) links from the last couple of weeks which I've found interesting:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biotech-stocks-are-a-buy-especially-these-18-picks-11615313772?siteid=yhoof2
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/scientists-create-a-drugfree-treatment-for-chronic-pain-using-gene-silencing/?fbclid=IwAR3X3HtaYhIzikISimGYOlfkq0MrMst6g17KOb31yZ-ttJBgnIbLFc1YgcE
https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-pharma-battled-the-pandemic-the-stocks-are-cheap-51615595798?siteid=yhoof2
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-really-hate-tech-stocks-right-now-but-should-they-194148090.html
Edit to make a couple of corrections - getting late!
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BrockStoker said:Hope everyone is well and hanging in there. Yet another torrid week for tech. Not sure how much longer this can last, but as someone investing for the long term, once again, all I see this as, is noise and/or potential buying opportunities.In the mean time fundamentals are at the very least intact, if not improving for the stocks that I'm holding. Here are a few highlights in case anyone missed them.Arrowhead:Another competitor's drug fails.TBIO CF RNA therapeutic (note NOT RNAi) trial data unimpressive. TBIO goes from $25+ @ close Thurs to $16.45 @ close Fri/today. Many of these next gen therapies can seem so promising, but they're just as risky as small molecules (very hit n miss, with the emphasis on "miss"), unlike RNAi, which shows consistency where ever it's correctly applied.Although ARWR is in a bit of a temporary data-drought at the moment, and I think that may last another 0.5-2 months, after that we should get a data-deluge, mostly over the 2nd half of 2021. Someone posted a comprehensive timetable of dates over on Twitter:There was also a bit more colour HBV early/previous data in this slide presentation (slide 12):..and an updated presentation with more data showing how effective JNJ-3989 is (slides 6, 7, 8, 9):Lastly, a new SA article (focusing on ATT) published that is well worth a read (before it disappears behind a pay wall): https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415062-arrowhead-steady-progress-lead-indication-vast-pipelineAmyris:Entered into another (new) deal:Investor presentation:CEO J. Mello said both the deals which everyone has been waiting for were effectively done deals, and would be closed by the end of the month.Evofem:EVO100 data found its way into a prestigious publicationAlso Phexxi sales date update
So although holders of these stocks are down on paper, the prospects for the above stocks in the near future are brighter than ever IMHO.. yet the total stock portfolio value was down to £119,347.38, about 1K down on last Friday's close.There was one other fly in the ointment which may have unsettled biotech investors, but I really don't think the majority of biotech investors need worry, and sector should spring back in due course. The only ones who need be worried are those invested in companies they know little or nothing about, and some of those may not be up to scratch - not the case here. Otherwise it's just a case of being patient in the knowledge that the market will eventually notice how undervalued these stocks are.Lastly, here are a few random (but related) links from the last couple of weeks which I've found interesting:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biotech-stocks-are-a-buy-especially-these-18-picks-11615313772?siteid=yhoof2
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/scientists-create-a-drugfree-treatment-for-chronic-pain-using-gene-silencing/?fbclid=IwAR3X3HtaYhIzikISimGYOlfkq0MrMst6g17KOb31yZ-ttJBgnIbLFc1YgcE
https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-pharma-battled-the-pandemic-the-stocks-are-cheap-51615595798?siteid=yhoof2
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-really-hate-tech-stocks-right-now-but-should-they-194148090.html
Edit to make a couple of corrections - getting late!
Thanks for all the updates, BS. I had already seen most of your links as I try to follow what's going on with these companies. I'm no expert but everything I read indicates that tech and biotech stocks are heading downwards in the short term whether the companies are good or bad unless any outstanding news is produced. I'm still pretty confident from what I've read of the long term prospects for Arymis and Arrowhead although a little less confident about Evofem. Time will tell!
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moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:Hope everyone is well and hanging in there. Yet another torrid week for tech. Not sure how much longer this can last, but as someone investing for the long term, once again, all I see this as, is noise and/or potential buying opportunities.In the mean time fundamentals are at the very least intact, if not improving for the stocks that I'm holding. Here are a few highlights in case anyone missed them.Arrowhead:Another competitor's drug fails.TBIO CF RNA therapeutic (note NOT RNAi) trial data unimpressive. TBIO goes from $25+ @ close Thurs to $16.45 @ close Fri/today. Many of these next gen therapies can seem so promising, but they're just as risky as small molecules (very hit n miss, with the emphasis on "miss"), unlike RNAi, which shows consistency where ever it's correctly applied.Although ARWR is in a bit of a temporary data-drought at the moment, and I think that may last another 0.5-2 months, after that we should get a data-deluge, mostly over the 2nd half of 2021. Someone posted a comprehensive timetable of dates over on Twitter:There was also a bit more colour HBV early/previous data in this slide presentation (slide 12):..and an updated presentation with more data showing how effective JNJ-3989 is (slides 6, 7, 8, 9):Lastly, a new SA article (focusing on ATT) published that is well worth a read (before it disappears behind a pay wall): https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415062-arrowhead-steady-progress-lead-indication-vast-pipelineAmyris:Entered into another (new) deal:Investor presentation:CEO J. Mello said both the deals which everyone has been waiting for were effectively done deals, and would be closed by the end of the month.Evofem:EVO100 data found its way into a prestigious publicationAlso Phexxi sales date update
So although holders of these stocks are down on paper, the prospects for the above stocks in the near future are brighter than ever IMHO.. yet the total stock portfolio value was down to £119,347.38, about 1K down on last Friday's close.There was one other fly in the ointment which may have unsettled biotech investors, but I really don't think the majority of biotech investors need worry, and sector should spring back in due course. The only ones who need be worried are those invested in companies they know little or nothing about, and some of those may not be up to scratch - not the case here. Otherwise it's just a case of being patient in the knowledge that the market will eventually notice how undervalued these stocks are.Lastly, here are a few random (but related) links from the last couple of weeks which I've found interesting:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biotech-stocks-are-a-buy-especially-these-18-picks-11615313772?siteid=yhoof2
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/scientists-create-a-drugfree-treatment-for-chronic-pain-using-gene-silencing/?fbclid=IwAR3X3HtaYhIzikISimGYOlfkq0MrMst6g17KOb31yZ-ttJBgnIbLFc1YgcE
https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-pharma-battled-the-pandemic-the-stocks-are-cheap-51615595798?siteid=yhoof2
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-really-hate-tech-stocks-right-now-but-should-they-194148090.html
Edit to make a couple of corrections - getting late!
Thanks for all the updates, BS. I had already seen most of your links as I try to follow what's going on with these companies. I'm no expert but everything I read indicates that tech and biotech stocks are heading downwards in the short term whether the companies are good or bad unless any outstanding news is produced. I'm still pretty confident from what I've read of the long term prospects for Arymis and Arrowhead although a little less confident about Evofem. Time will tell!Yes, looks like more sideways/down in the short term. This won't last forever, but as you say, some good news will help share prices.I guess you saw what happened to Ionis (IONS) today - it's antisense therapy for Huntington's which was in P3 and partnered with Roche was scrapped. The examples of our competition's failures are coming thick and fast, once again highlighting RNAi's/the TRiM platform's advantages over, basically everything else. Wall Street still does not fully get it, and I'm wondering if this is the year that the penny will drop. Either that or it will be when we get our first approval (1-2 years EST). I hope it's the former, but over the long term it doesn't really matter.I still remain bullish on EVFM, but AMRS and ARWR are a different league. Never the less, at some point soon, as Phexxi sales grow, WS will have to take note, and sentiment can turn overnight. If that happens then I think we will see a repeat of AMRS performance over the last 6 months. That's what keeps me interested in EVFM. In 2 weeks time I'm buying more if prices are around these levels (or lower), along with ARWR and AMRS. Also considering taking a position in BNGO, If I can get a good price of course.0 -
BrockStoker said:moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:Hope everyone is well and hanging in there. Yet another torrid week for tech. Not sure how much longer this can last, but as someone investing for the long term, once again, all I see this as, is noise and/or potential buying opportunities.In the mean time fundamentals are at the very least intact, if not improving for the stocks that I'm holding. Here are a few highlights in case anyone missed them.Arrowhead:Another competitor's drug fails.TBIO CF RNA therapeutic (note NOT RNAi) trial data unimpressive. TBIO goes from $25+ @ close Thurs to $16.45 @ close Fri/today. Many of these next gen therapies can seem so promising, but they're just as risky as small molecules (very hit n miss, with the emphasis on "miss"), unlike RNAi, which shows consistency where ever it's correctly applied.Although ARWR is in a bit of a temporary data-drought at the moment, and I think that may last another 0.5-2 months, after that we should get a data-deluge, mostly over the 2nd half of 2021. Someone posted a comprehensive timetable of dates over on Twitter:There was also a bit more colour HBV early/previous data in this slide presentation (slide 12):..and an updated presentation with more data showing how effective JNJ-3989 is (slides 6, 7, 8, 9):Lastly, a new SA article (focusing on ATT) published that is well worth a read (before it disappears behind a pay wall): https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415062-arrowhead-steady-progress-lead-indication-vast-pipelineAmyris:Entered into another (new) deal:Investor presentation:CEO J. Mello said both the deals which everyone has been waiting for were effectively done deals, and would be closed by the end of the month.Evofem:EVO100 data found its way into a prestigious publicationAlso Phexxi sales date update
So although holders of these stocks are down on paper, the prospects for the above stocks in the near future are brighter than ever IMHO.. yet the total stock portfolio value was down to £119,347.38, about 1K down on last Friday's close.There was one other fly in the ointment which may have unsettled biotech investors, but I really don't think the majority of biotech investors need worry, and sector should spring back in due course. The only ones who need be worried are those invested in companies they know little or nothing about, and some of those may not be up to scratch - not the case here. Otherwise it's just a case of being patient in the knowledge that the market will eventually notice how undervalued these stocks are.Lastly, here are a few random (but related) links from the last couple of weeks which I've found interesting:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biotech-stocks-are-a-buy-especially-these-18-picks-11615313772?siteid=yhoof2
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/scientists-create-a-drugfree-treatment-for-chronic-pain-using-gene-silencing/?fbclid=IwAR3X3HtaYhIzikISimGYOlfkq0MrMst6g17KOb31yZ-ttJBgnIbLFc1YgcE
https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-pharma-battled-the-pandemic-the-stocks-are-cheap-51615595798?siteid=yhoof2
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-really-hate-tech-stocks-right-now-but-should-they-194148090.html
Edit to make a couple of corrections - getting late!
Thanks for all the updates, BS. I had already seen most of your links as I try to follow what's going on with these companies. I'm no expert but everything I read indicates that tech and biotech stocks are heading downwards in the short term whether the companies are good or bad unless any outstanding news is produced. I'm still pretty confident from what I've read of the long term prospects for Arymis and Arrowhead although a little less confident about Evofem. Time will tell!Yes, looks like more sideways/down in the short term. This won't last forever, but as you say, some good news will help share prices.I guess you saw what happened to Ionis (IONS) today - it's antisense therapy for Huntington's which was in P3 and partnered with Roche was scrapped. The examples of our competition's failures are coming thick and fast, once again highlighting RNAi's/the TRiM platform's advantages over, basically everything else. Wall Street still does not fully get it, and I'm wondering if this is the year that the penny will drop. Either that or it will be when we get our first approval (1-2 years EST). I hope it's the former, but over the long term it doesn't really matter.I still remain bullish on EVFM, but AMRS and ARWR are a different league. Never the less, at some point soon, as Phexxi sales grow, WS will have to take note, and sentiment can turn overnight. If that happens then I think we will see a repeat of AMRS performance over the last 6 months. That's what keeps me interested in EVFM. In 2 weeks time I'm buying more if prices are around these levels (or lower), along with ARWR and AMRS. Also considering taking a position in BNGO, If I can get a good price of course.
If the NASDAQ keeps going down like it has for the last couple of days, BS, you'll be able to buy VERY cheaply in 2 weeks!
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What are the chances?! If it happens, this will be the 3rd time in a row money has been available at almost exactly the right time. I think it's going to be a nail-biter, but if I had to bet on it, I'm expecting prices to recover just in time for me to buy at a premiumTrying not to get my hopes up too much, but with every day that there is no recovery, the possibilities are becoming more tangible/tantalizing! Just 13 days now.. but feels like an eternity!
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BrockStoker said:What are the chances?! If it happens, this will be the 3rd time in a row money has been available at almost exactly the right time. I think it's going to be a nail-biter, but if I had to bet on it, I'm expecting prices to recover just in time for me to buy at a premiumTrying not to get my hopes up too much, but with every day that there is no recovery, the possibilities are becoming more tangible/tantalizing! Just 13 days now.. but feels like an eternity!
I think your chances are aproximately 100%. Nobody likes biotechs at the moment and AMRS, ARWR and EVFM are all unloved and heading south!
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moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:What are the chances?! If it happens, this will be the 3rd time in a row money has been available at almost exactly the right time. I think it's going to be a nail-biter, but if I had to bet on it, I'm expecting prices to recover just in time for me to buy at a premiumTrying not to get my hopes up too much, but with every day that there is no recovery, the possibilities are becoming more tangible/tantalizing! Just 13 days now.. but feels like an eternity!
I think your chances are aproximately 100%. Nobody likes biotechs at the moment and AMRS, ARWR and EVFM are all unloved and heading south!Not sure I'd agree with them all being "unloved" although EVFM doesn't seem to be much liked after the public offering. Having said that, quite a bullish end to the day for EVFM - someone out there loves it at current prices at least. Either way, sentiment will change sooner or later.. preferably in about 12 days
Everything that's going on right now can be put down to heard mentality - people blindly dumping/ignoring perfectly good stocks just because others are doing the same. For the life of me I can't see any logic for selling off companies like ARWR or AMRS (with annualized growth rates of greater than 50%) in order to hold bonds which aren't likely to return more than 5%. Guess you saw the latest Amyris news about CBG:I'm also still quite bullish on Orchard Therapeutics, although I'd class it as higher risk. SA published an interesting piece about it the other day if anyone is wondering what I see in them:0 -
BrockStoker said:moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:What are the chances?! If it happens, this will be the 3rd time in a row money has been available at almost exactly the right time. I think it's going to be a nail-biter, but if I had to bet on it, I'm expecting prices to recover just in time for me to buy at a premiumTrying not to get my hopes up too much, but with every day that there is no recovery, the possibilities are becoming more tangible/tantalizing! Just 13 days now.. but feels like an eternity!
I think your chances are aproximately 100%. Nobody likes biotechs at the moment and AMRS, ARWR and EVFM are all unloved and heading south!Not sure I'd agree with them all being "unloved" although EVFM doesn't seem to be much liked after the public offering. Having said that, quite a bullish end to the day for EVFM - someone out there loves it at current prices at least. Either way, sentiment will change sooner or later.. preferably in about 12 days Everything that's going on right now can be put down to heard mentality - people blindly dumping/ignoring perfectly good stocks just because others are doing the same. For the life of me I can't see any logic for selling off companies like ARWR or AMRS (with annualized growth rates of greater than 50%) in order to hold bonds which aren't likely to return more than 5%. Guess you saw the latest Amyris news about CBG:I'm also still quite bullish on Orchard Therapeutics, although I'd class it as higher risk. SA published an interesting piece about it the other day if anyone is wondering what I see in them:
Yes, I did see that piece on Amyris. In fact, everything I read about Amyris (and Arrowhead) is positive but the prices still keep going down. I've seen a few posts worried about the possibility of Biden bringing in drug price controls. That and the possibility of interest rates going up if inflation rises and thus making debt more expensive are the only negatives I've seen. Early days!
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moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:What are the chances?! If it happens, this will be the 3rd time in a row money has been available at almost exactly the right time. I think it's going to be a nail-biter, but if I had to bet on it, I'm expecting prices to recover just in time for me to buy at a premiumTrying not to get my hopes up too much, but with every day that there is no recovery, the possibilities are becoming more tangible/tantalizing! Just 13 days now.. but feels like an eternity!
I think your chances are aproximately 100%. Nobody likes biotechs at the moment and AMRS, ARWR and EVFM are all unloved and heading south!Not sure I'd agree with them all being "unloved" although EVFM doesn't seem to be much liked after the public offering. Having said that, quite a bullish end to the day for EVFM - someone out there loves it at current prices at least. Either way, sentiment will change sooner or later.. preferably in about 12 days Everything that's going on right now can be put down to heard mentality - people blindly dumping/ignoring perfectly good stocks just because others are doing the same. For the life of me I can't see any logic for selling off companies like ARWR or AMRS (with annualized growth rates of greater than 50%) in order to hold bonds which aren't likely to return more than 5%. Guess you saw the latest Amyris news about CBG:I'm also still quite bullish on Orchard Therapeutics, although I'd class it as higher risk. SA published an interesting piece about it the other day if anyone is wondering what I see in them:
Yes, I did see that piece on Amyris. In fact, everything I read about Amyris (and Arrowhead) is positive but the prices still keep going down. I've seen a few posts worried about the possibility of Biden bringing in drug price controls. That and the possibility of interest rates going up if inflation rises and thus making debt more expensive are the only negatives I've seen. Early days!How do those ancient words of wisdom go? "The markets can stay irrational longer that you or I can stay solvent", I think it was. Even if the sector remains in sideways mode for a while, good data/news will be rewarded, in due course. Drug pricing is always going to be there in the background, and political rhetoric will dampen the sector at times, but it's just noise, and I don't think it will have much of an effect on the sector at the moment (we'll see).At the end of the day we have shares in companies which have cutting edge products that are needed by people, so they are bound to grow and increase in value over time. The nice thing is they are all at the point where they are starting to break even, meaning they can start to pay down debt. EVFM is behind the others in that respect, and the only company (out of the 3) where this might still be an issue, but hopefully this should be the last cash raise, and it should be mostly up from here.As you say though, early days. If all goes to plan, in a year or three, what has occurred recently will be a barely noticeable dip in the chart. Also good to keep in mind that the biotech sector looks cheap/attractive in general from a P:E point of view, and together with waves of data from promising cutting edge drugs/therapies over the coming months/years.. it won't be long till WS turns it's attention to biotech again! The cream will eventually rise to the top!
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