Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

@Cam93 - Hoping you held off buying EVFM or at least have not spent your budget for it. It's taken a tumble now, because investors did not like the numbers/earnings. Very short termist! Great buying opportunity now IMHO. I suppose it could go a bit lower before going up again, but anywhere below $3 is a very good price!

Indeed! It's pretty awful for those of us who bought near the top in the last few weeks! Unfortunately my budget is spent.

Voyager2002 said:

BrockStoker said:

@Cam93 - Hoping you held off buying EVFM or at least have not spent your budget for it. It's taken a tumble now, because investors did not like the numbers/earnings. Very short termist! Great buying opportunity now IMHO. I suppose it could go a bit lower before going up again, but anywhere below $3 is a very good price!

EVFM is down 25 per cent in pre-market trading! That seems a little drastic.
YF says they have filed a "shelf registration": is that a form of bankruptcy?

I think this is being totally overdone due to the way the markets are right now. I'm not sure exactly what "shelf registration" is, but suspect it's like a round of funding, probably dilutative (is that a word?).

My best advice is hang in there, and buy if you can. Sorry for those who can not (moneyfoolish). I can see how this is frustrating..

I think the main issue here is that people are unhappy that so much (millions) were spent on the TV ad campaign, and there were only thousands profit to show for it. Obviously it will take time to reap the rewards from it, but some investors want it now, which is totally unreasonable. It's a great example of how easy it is for a perfectly good stock to become very undervalued IMHO. That is my assessment anyway.  

Edit to add:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shelfoffering.asp

"A shelf offering is a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) provision that allows an equity issuer (such as a corporation) to register a new issue of securities without having to sell the entire issue at once. The issuer can instead sell portions of the issue over a three-year period without re-registering the security or incurring penalties"

It sounds like a secondary offering, but over an extended period. With the way the market conditions are right now, a normal secondary would probably not work very well, hence the "shelf offering".

Cam93

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

BrockStoker

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

That would be a very bold move, and one that could pay off handsomely. It's not unlike the move I made a few months back, getting rid of all my stocks except those which I had the most confidence in, so I'd say go for it. I just hope this carries on till Monday (or longer so that I can take advantage of these prices). Good luck!

Voyager2002

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

What about

Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. (SRNE)?

moneyfoolish

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

BrockStoker

Voyager2002 said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

What about

Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. (SRNE)?

I'm down ~38% on my SRNE holding, which is 500 shares. It is a risky bet (on the same level as EVFM I think), but if I was able to I'd likely buy another 500 at these prices. There's still a lot going for SRNE, so worth a punt, but I'd be buying ARWR, AMRS, and EVFM first, and then considering more EVFM.

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

The danger is, if waiting to long, that there is a big spike up when all this starts to normalize. But of course, there could be more pain to come. I normally jump in too soon, and then watch a stock fall further, but at least it means I've already got some, and there is a reasonable chance you've got close to bottom with your initial buy.

Ideally you should split your buy up - buy one lot now, and another if it falls more. The danger there is if it goes up after your initial buy, and you miss out on the better pricing, but it's usually not a bad thing to get stuck with a bit of cash, especially if you have your eye on a few stocks - usually at least one will present an opportunity soon enough IME, although of course nothing is guaranteed.

Whichever way you look at it, now (blood on the streets) is a good time to buy if you're planning to hold for the long term. The more you can teach yourself to be bold, and not get worried over these little market tantrums, the easier/more profitable it'll get. I sleep well at night, confident in the knowledge that once this is all over, share prices will spring back. The fundamentals have not changed, and the science is where it should be - investors will pile in once more.

BrockStoker

Total portfolio down to £103,999.56 (£63,410.49 originally invested) as of close today. Down £34,886.58 since 19 Feb close, and close to £10K since yesterday's close.

Arrowhead of course accounts for most of the recent losses, but it's technically oversold. Not that I pay much attention to technical indicators, but many do, and I'd expect them to lead the "buy the dip" brigade. AMRS and the others are not far off if they are not already oversold. Of course the market and myself don't always see eye to eye, but I think there is good reason to believe we are at or near bottom here. Certainly if share prices go lower, they are very attractively priced already, so when conditions are right most stocks should rebound quickly!

Moe_The_Bartender

moneyfoolish said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

Why did you buy them in the first place? Because an amateur punter on an Internet forum suggested it perhaps?

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

moneyfoolish said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

With all due respect Moe, that is your opinion, but that does not mean it's so. At the very least I would say it's too early to say for sure if it's "rubbish" or not. Certainly for a small company, going from $2.71 to $2.28, at a time when the whole sector is under great pressure, is not in itself a good reason to rubbish a company.

EVFM sold off because investors wanted to see more revenue. It's a small company with limited resources, and it's TV ad campaign only commenced around 3 weeks ago, but investors wanted to see $100s of millions flooding in? Give me a break! Those are totally unreasonable expectations IMHO!

The way I see it, it's a totally new (and revolutionary) concept. It takes time for an ad campaign to work it's magic, and those first few that try it will eventually spread the word to their friends/social circle, who in turn spread the word to their friends once they have tried it. It takes a few cycles of this happening before "compounding" really starts to kick in, and I would imagine at least 2-3 weeks per cycle.

If you look at the sales figures provided, there was a significant jump in sales after the TV ads kicked in. Extrapolating those figures points to solid growth, and the revenues should follow IMHO.

Now, as I've mentioned before, I don't always see eye to eye with the market, but it's in times like this, where the big profits are made - that is, IF it turns out that I'm right and the market is wrong.

That's not to say this is not a risky stock. There are questions over management, and perhaps this is a potential "red flag". I think they have made some naive mistakes, but I think (and hope) they will learn from those mistakes, and for the moment I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Other investors need to take this on board and make up their own minds, but I intend to hold and see if the next few months prove me right (or not).

Fundamentally, the only change is the "shelf offering", but a small share dilution for a small company with limited resources is hardly a huge surprise.

I do find it fascinating at the same time as puzzling how people can hold such diametrically opposing views about the same company, at the same point in time. It makes me suspect that one side has not properly evaluated the situation/company or are/is deluding itself. I suspect that there is also an element of misogyny, making EVFM a great target since some do not like to see women in control/having more freedom/having more options, but I think EVFM will overcome this.