Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

csgohan4

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

moneyfoolish said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

With all due respect Moe, that is your opinion, but that does not mean it's so. At the very least I would say it's too early to say for sure if it's "rubbish" or not. Certainly for a small company, going from $2.71 to $2.28, at a time when the whole sector is under great pressure, is not in itself a good reason to rubbish a company.

EVFM sold off because investors wanted to see more revenue. It's a small company with limited resources, and it's TV ad campaign only commenced around 3 weeks ago, but investors wanted to see $100s of millions flooding in? Give me a break! Those are totally unreasonable expectations IMHO!

The way I see it, it's a totally new (and revolutionary) concept. It takes time for an ad campaign to work it's magic, and those first few that try it will eventually spread the word to their friends/social circle, who in turn spread the word to their friends once they have tried it. It takes a few cycles of this happening before "compounding" really starts to kick in, and I would imagine at least 2-3 weeks per cycle.

If you look at the sales figures provided, there was a significant jump in sales after the TV ads kicked in. Extrapolating those figures points to solid growth, and the revenues should follow IMHO.

Now, as I've mentioned before, I don't always see eye to eye with the market, but it's in times like this, where the big profits are made - that is, IF it turns out that I'm right and the market is wrong.

That's not to say this is not a risky stock. There are questions over management, and perhaps this is a potential "red flag". I think they have made some naive mistakes, but I think (and hope) they will learn from those mistakes, and for the moment I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Other investors need to take this on board and make up their own minds, but I intend to hold and see if the next few months prove me right (or not).

Fundamentally, the only change is the "shelf offering", but a small share dilution for a small company with limited resources is hardly a huge surprise.

I do find it fascinating at the same time as puzzling how people can hold such diametrically opposing views about the same company, at the same point in time. It makes me suspect that one side has not properly evaluated the situation/company or are/is deluding itself. I suspect that there is also an element of misogyny, making EVFM a great target since some do not like to see women in control/having more freedom/having more options, but I think EVFM will overcome this. 

you probably have to be very brave to invest in EVFM, >50% drop from it's height. might be a value stock to pick up, but certainly not without risk

Moe_The_Bartender

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

moneyfoolish said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

With all due respect Moe, that is your opinion, but that does not mean it's so. At the very least I would say it's too early to say for sure if it's "rubbish" or not. Certainly for a small company, going from $2.71 to $2.28, at a time when the whole sector is under great pressure, is not in itself a good reason to rubbish a company.

EVFM sold off because investors wanted to see more revenue. It's a small company with limited resources, and it's TV ad campaign only commenced around 3 weeks ago, but investors wanted to see $100s of millions flooding in? Give me a break! Those are totally unreasonable expectations IMHO!

The way I see it, it's a totally new (and revolutionary) concept. It takes time for an ad campaign to work it's magic, and those first few that try it will eventually spread the word to their friends/social circle, who in turn spread the word to their friends once they have tried it. It takes a few cycles of this happening before "compounding" really starts to kick in, and I would imagine at least 2-3 weeks per cycle.

If you look at the sales figures provided, there was a significant jump in sales after the TV ads kicked in. Extrapolating those figures points to solid growth, and the revenues should follow IMHO.

Now, as I've mentioned before, I don't always see eye to eye with the market, but it's in times like this, where the big profits are made - that is, IF it turns out that I'm right and the market is wrong.

That's not to say this is not a risky stock. There are questions over management, and perhaps this is a potential "red flag". I think they have made some naive mistakes, but I think (and hope) they will learn from those mistakes, and for the moment I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Other investors need to take this on board and make up their own minds, but I intend to hold and see if the next few months prove me right (or not).

Fundamentally, the only change is the "shelf offering", but a small share dilution for a small company with limited resources is hardly a huge surprise.

I do find it fascinating at the same time as puzzling how people can hold such diametrically opposing views about the same company, at the same point in time. It makes me suspect that one side has not properly evaluated the situation/company or are/is deluding itself. I suspect that there is also an element of misogyny, making EVFM a great target since some do not like to see women in control/having more freedom/having more options, but I think EVFM will overcome this. 

I admire your optimism but to me it’s a poorly managed business with an overpaid CEO and poor sales that no amount of advertising will improve. I wouldn’t invest in it at any price.

BrockStoker

csgohan4 said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

moneyfoolish said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

With all due respect Moe, that is your opinion, but that does not mean it's so. At the very least I would say it's too early to say for sure if it's "rubbish" or not. Certainly for a small company, going from $2.71 to $2.28, at a time when the whole sector is under great pressure, is not in itself a good reason to rubbish a company.

EVFM sold off because investors wanted to see more revenue. It's a small company with limited resources, and it's TV ad campaign only commenced around 3 weeks ago, but investors wanted to see $100s of millions flooding in? Give me a break! Those are totally unreasonable expectations IMHO!

The way I see it, it's a totally new (and revolutionary) concept. It takes time for an ad campaign to work it's magic, and those first few that try it will eventually spread the word to their friends/social circle, who in turn spread the word to their friends once they have tried it. It takes a few cycles of this happening before "compounding" really starts to kick in, and I would imagine at least 2-3 weeks per cycle.

If you look at the sales figures provided, there was a significant jump in sales after the TV ads kicked in. Extrapolating those figures points to solid growth, and the revenues should follow IMHO.

Now, as I've mentioned before, I don't always see eye to eye with the market, but it's in times like this, where the big profits are made - that is, IF it turns out that I'm right and the market is wrong.

That's not to say this is not a risky stock. There are questions over management, and perhaps this is a potential "red flag". I think they have made some naive mistakes, but I think (and hope) they will learn from those mistakes, and for the moment I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Other investors need to take this on board and make up their own minds, but I intend to hold and see if the next few months prove me right (or not).

Fundamentally, the only change is the "shelf offering", but a small share dilution for a small company with limited resources is hardly a huge surprise.

I do find it fascinating at the same time as puzzling how people can hold such diametrically opposing views about the same company, at the same point in time. It makes me suspect that one side has not properly evaluated the situation/company or are/is deluding itself. I suspect that there is also an element of misogyny, making EVFM a great target since some do not like to see women in control/having more freedom/having more options, but I think EVFM will overcome this. 

you probably have to be very brave to invest in EVFM, >50% drop from it's height. might be a value stock to pick up, but certainly not without risk

If you want to invest with minimal risk, then invest in a mainstream fund - the risks will be minimized, but so will the rewards. This is a penny stock after all, and that goes hand in hand with a certain level of risk.

I believe that in order to make significant gains you have know/understand what you are invested in, and not be swayed unless something fundamentally important changes. All that has changed here is that the market has decided that there are better places to invest right now, and as usual there is a stampede for the exits. It was unfortunate timing, but the way the markets were at the time only made things worse, or more accurately, made things look worse than they were, which just exacerbated the problem. To me it was just noise.

To take it a step further, I think it's fair to argue that EVFM has been pretty well beaten down now, and historically has never dipped much below this level for long. At these levels I would argue that it's effectively de-risked from falling significantly further, barring complete failure (unlikely IMHO), but should the sales figures in a few months time show an improvement, it could go from $2 to $5 in a short space of time, and carry on. $20+ might even happen before EOY if things progress well, making this a potential 10 bagger at current prices, in a fairly short space of time. It's certainly not something I'd bet the farm on, but along with some risk, there is also a significant chance of gain for those willing/able to invest at these prices. 

To those who are already invested ( @moneyfoolish ) think about what I've said above. Has anything changed in the thesis? If not, then hang on to those shares, and even add more if you can (perhaps if it drops further). Keep in mind the old saying though: "The market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent" In other words, don't invest anything you will need soon or anything you can't afford to loose. Ignore the noise too!

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

moneyfoolish said:

Cam93 said:

Held off EVFM luckily!
Currently 36% down at time of writing, although will look to buy Monday once I've cleared off my remaining tesla and NIO.

Going to cut my entire unwrapped portfolio to just ARRW, AMRS and EVFM I think !

You might want to wait until the NASDAQ/Biotech blood bath is over! Those 3 are the only stocks I hold and since I bought them over the last few weeks mine are down 29%, 24% and 59% resp. and going down by the day!

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

With all due respect Moe, that is your opinion, but that does not mean it's so. At the very least I would say it's too early to say for sure if it's "rubbish" or not. Certainly for a small company, going from $2.71 to $2.28, at a time when the whole sector is under great pressure, is not in itself a good reason to rubbish a company.

EVFM sold off because investors wanted to see more revenue. It's a small company with limited resources, and it's TV ad campaign only commenced around 3 weeks ago, but investors wanted to see $100s of millions flooding in? Give me a break! Those are totally unreasonable expectations IMHO!

The way I see it, it's a totally new (and revolutionary) concept. It takes time for an ad campaign to work it's magic, and those first few that try it will eventually spread the word to their friends/social circle, who in turn spread the word to their friends once they have tried it. It takes a few cycles of this happening before "compounding" really starts to kick in, and I would imagine at least 2-3 weeks per cycle.

If you look at the sales figures provided, there was a significant jump in sales after the TV ads kicked in. Extrapolating those figures points to solid growth, and the revenues should follow IMHO.

Now, as I've mentioned before, I don't always see eye to eye with the market, but it's in times like this, where the big profits are made - that is, IF it turns out that I'm right and the market is wrong.

That's not to say this is not a risky stock. There are questions over management, and perhaps this is a potential "red flag". I think they have made some naive mistakes, but I think (and hope) they will learn from those mistakes, and for the moment I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Other investors need to take this on board and make up their own minds, but I intend to hold and see if the next few months prove me right (or not).

Fundamentally, the only change is the "shelf offering", but a small share dilution for a small company with limited resources is hardly a huge surprise.

I do find it fascinating at the same time as puzzling how people can hold such diametrically opposing views about the same company, at the same point in time. It makes me suspect that one side has not properly evaluated the situation/company or are/is deluding itself. I suspect that there is also an element of misogyny, making EVFM a great target since some do not like to see women in control/having more freedom/having more options, but I think EVFM will overcome this. 

I admire your optimism but to me it’s a poorly managed business with an overpaid CEO and poor sales that no amount of advertising will improve. I wouldn’t invest in it at any price.

Fair play. It's not for everyone, that is for sure!

I think you have to remain optimistic, especially at times when everyone is being pessimistic (although it may not necessarily be the right thing to do every time). You could turn out to be right, and I'm grateful for you flagging potential pitfalls (I'd encourage anyone reading this to do so). Valid points regarding the CEO, although she is new, so perhaps some initial mistakes are forgivable, but I can accept there is an argument for finding a better CEO with some experience to replace her - certainly if enough investors don't like her, then perhaps she should go for the good of the company, and I think there is a possibility this might happen.

So I'm sticking to my guns, and will continue to hold (might even add a few if price stays low), in the hope these initial problems can be overcome. Besides, if I sold now, I'd be turning a paper loss into an actual loss. The last time I did that with a penny stock, CRIS, a few months after selling @ ~$1 it shot up to around $13! I'm not going to repeat that mistake again, although I appreciate there is always the possibility of making a different mistake

Voyager2002

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

With all due respect Moe, that is your opinion, but that does not mean it's so. At the very least I would say it's too early to say for sure if it's "rubbish" or not. Certainly for a small company, going from $2.71 to $2.28, at a time when the whole sector is under great pressure, is not in itself a good reason to rubbish a company.

Moe's comment in January was a single sentence claiming that their contraceptive was "only xx% effective" (I think the figure was 86). Does EVFM have only one product? Is there not a market for a product that, while less reliable than the pill, is a good deal more effective than the widely-used "Vatican roulette"?

BrockStoker

Voyager2002 said:

BrockStoker said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

Anyone can see that EVFM is a load of rubbish. I passed comment about EVFM in January when the price was $2.71. It’s now $2.28.

With all due respect Moe, that is your opinion, but that does not mean it's so. At the very least I would say it's too early to say for sure if it's "rubbish" or not. Certainly for a small company, going from $2.71 to $2.28, at a time when the whole sector is under great pressure, is not in itself a good reason to rubbish a company.

Moe's comment in January was a single sentence claiming that their contraceptive was "only xx% effective" (I think the figure was 86). Does EVFM have only one product? Is there not a market for a product that, while less reliable than the pill, is a good deal more effective than the widely-used "Vatican roulette"?

Only one product (Phexxi) currently, although the next iteration is currently in clinical trials being tested to see if works against STDs as well. If FDA approved I think this would add even more value.

It's at least as effective as condoms, but it's largest selling point is that it's non hormonal (unlike the pill). Messing with hormones has many unwanted side effects, but women put up with them because they like the other options less. I can see many switching over from other forms of contraception for the potential benefits. The market is potentially huge, and so far they have only explored the US, so there is also potential for growth beyond the US too in the future. Dare I say it, I think this company could be a bit like the next "Durex", if it pans out.

BrockStoker

Hope everyone is hanging in there. Yesterday wasn't a bad day, and today brings more good news:

PELLETIER SAUNDRA L, Chief Executive Officer, purchased 45,249 shares of $EVFM at $2.28.
PELLETIER SAUNDRA L now owns 906,137 shares worth $2,056,931 of Evofem Biosciences, Inc. stock

EVFM up in premarket trading - looks like investors are starting to have more confidence having seen Saundra buying.

underground99

BrockStoker said:

Hope everyone is hanging in there. Yesterday wasn't a bad day, and today brings more good news:

PELLETIER SAUNDRA L, Chief Executive Officer, purchased 45,249 shares of $EVFM at $2.28.
PELLETIER SAUNDRA L now owns 906,137 shares worth $2,056,931 of Evofem Biosciences, Inc. stock

EVFM up in premarket trading - looks like investors are starting to have confidence having seen Saundra buying.

A good bounce back up this morning - it's always good to see director buys, but of course placing an order to buy $100k-worth is not a big trade compared to her pay. She's always had 'a few million' worth of company stock; you can see from the filing history that in 2019 and 2020 she was selling them on a regular plan to avoid insider trading rules, as she had lots of vested free shares or options which were in the money and she needed to get rid of them to pay her tax bills. 

Illustrating that investors buying shares with their own money will not have done so well as she does, back in Dec 2019 her 370k shares at the time were worth 2.7 million, more than her 900k shares are worth today.  Three weeks ago, her 860k shares were worth $4.2m before they came back down to earth again (or 'fell off a cliff' last week, to be blunt) and now even with the new purchase and today's rally they are only worth three-fifths of that. So with those sorts of figures being bandied about it's not too surprising that she can drop $100k (of her money, which was the company's money before it gave it to her) on buying $100k of shares which will rally the price a bit.

You'll note that of the 860k shares she already had before putting the money in yesterday, she was given 500,000 of those shares for free last month (subject to 'certain performance targets' for 2021) and at the same time she was granted 700,000 options at that day's price which will vest at a rate of 15000 a month for next four years for her to cash out for more free money if the company price rises even a cent from the $3.25 at date of grant.

You can imagine the boardroom conversations,
- "yeah I know the share price is much much lower now than it was earlier under my watch in 2016/17, but I really need a lot of free shares to perform at my best!?" ;
-"ok Saundra we agree, and it won't look so bad to the shareholders if you buy, say, 45k shares for yourself after we allocate you these 500k shares for nothing? And we'll start you on a plan to get another 700k of options vesting monthly over four years without further performance conditions, how's that?"
- "OK sounds good, but the share price is going up a bit at the moment so do you mind if I wait to make that small market purchase, at least until the week after we file last year's annual report and the share price falls off a cliff again?"
- "no problem. I expect you're now in a good mood after getting those awards for 2021 even though we both know the results and progress to date has been pretty disappointing and the market will crucify our share price when we publish the 10-k next month. As you're in a good mood, probably a great time to ask you to sign off on our allocations too please?"
- "consider it done".

BrockStoker

underground99 said:

BrockStoker said:

Hope everyone is hanging in there. Yesterday wasn't a bad day, and today brings more good news:

PELLETIER SAUNDRA L, Chief Executive Officer, purchased 45,249 shares of $EVFM at $2.28.
PELLETIER SAUNDRA L now owns 906,137 shares worth $2,056,931 of Evofem Biosciences, Inc. stock

EVFM up in premarket trading - looks like investors are starting to have confidence having seen Saundra buying.

A good bounce back up this morning - it's always good to see director buys, but of course placing an order to buy $100k-worth is not a big trade compared to her pay. She's always had 'a few million' worth of company stock; you can see from the filing history that in 2019 and 2020 she was selling them on a regular plan to avoid insider trading rules, as she had lots of vested free shares or options which were in the money and she needed to get rid of them to pay her tax bills. 

Illustrating that investors buying shares with their own money will not have done so well as she does, back in Dec 2019 her 370k shares at the time were worth 2.7 million, more than her 900k shares are worth today.  Three weeks ago, her 860k shares were worth $4.2m before they came back down to earth again (or 'fell off a cliff' last week, to be blunt) and now even with the new purchase and today's rally they are only worth three-fifths of that. So with those sorts of figures being bandied about it's not too surprising that she can drop $100k (of her money, which was the company's money before it gave it to her) on buying $100k of shares which will rally the price a bit.

You'll note that of the 860k shares she already had before putting the money in yesterday, she was given 500,000 of those shares for free last month (subject to 'certain performance targets' for 2021) and at the same time she was granted 700,000 options at that day's price which will vest at a rate of 15000 a month for next four years for her to cash out for more free money if the company price rises even a cent from the $3.25 at date of grant.

You can imagine the boardroom conversations,
- "yeah I know the share price is much much lower now than it was earlier under my watch in 2016/17, but I really need a lot of free shares to perform at my best!?" ;
-"ok Saundra we agree, and it won't look so bad to the shareholders if you buy, say, 45k shares for yourself after we allocate you these 500k shares for nothing? And we'll start you on a plan to get another 700k of options vesting monthly over four years without further performance conditions, how's that?"
- "OK sounds good, but the share price is going up a bit at the moment so do you mind if I wait to make that small market purchase, at least until the week after we file last year's annual report and the share price falls off a cliff again?"
- "no problem. I expect you're now in a good mood after getting those awards for 2021 even though we both know the results and progress to date has been pretty disappointing and the market will crucify our share price when we publish the 10-k next month. As you're in a good mood, probably a great time to ask you to sign off on our allocations too please?"
- "consider it done".

Valid points. I think Saundra is borderline "taking the proverbial" with her current pay, however putting myself in her shoes, I can see why she might think she is justified. She has probably spent the best part of a decade (if not more) working to get this thing off the ground, so I think it's fair that she gets some reward for her efforts. She should have paid herself less, and waited till the company was successful/generating significant revenue before paying herself as much as she is now IMHO.

That said, as long as there is at least a bit of investor confidence, then the above is not hugely significant, providing Phexxi becomes at least a reasonably successful product, and I still believe that (if not much more) is more likely than not.

In case anyone missed it, SA have a new piece about EVFM which I think accurately asses the future prospects:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412637-evofem-biosciences-launches-phexxi-will-peak-sales-surprise

The author suggests peak annual sales of $1B (US alone) would be a reasonable (but conservative) estimate, and that the current share price should be well over $5 to reflect fair value. If EVFM can realize $1B in revenue, then a share price of $30 (very conservative) would be fair. Remember, these figures could easily turn out to be at the lower end of the possible range, especially if/when: 1/ Phexxi moves out of North America. 2/ The next iteration which protects against certain STDs is approved.

So, I'm hanging on to my shares, and might even add more when I get the chance.

BrockStoker

Update on Phexxi sales posted on Redit - Quote: "5 months after launch, prescriptions are still growing at 20-30% per WEEK !!!!"

https://www.reddit.com/r/evfm/comments/m3hsvt/latest_bbg_prescriptions_from_regular_drug_store/

It seems to me that this kind of momentum is very encouraging!

In other news, institutions are continuing to pile in to Amyris - Quote: "13- G filed -- Schottenfeld has Increased AMRS Stake from around 200k shares ( 12/20) to slightly less than 8 mm ... 3%"