Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Perhaps not. Looks like earnings are in, and they are good!

Just looking now.

I'm no expert but everything looks good to me. Earnings, Debt reduction, projected revenue, products, new company just bought. If the price drops I will probably buy a few more but it showing no signs of dropping at the moment. Shame I'm not as brave as you but it looks as though your confidence in this one is going to be well justified.

Likewise, I'm still learning the intricacies when it comes to earnings reports. Never been good with numbers, but I don't think it matters too much - at least not as much as seeing the bigger picture.

I think you may struggle to find decent dips now. I suspect we will have a lot of momentum going forward. I would like to buy more too, so hopefully we will get a chance. As always of course, the best prices are when nothing is certain, and you need some steel to buy then. In that respect, EVFM is the one to be looking at now!

I decided to buy another a few more Amysis at $18.67 because I thought the results and prospects were spectacular. I thought the price would drop back at some stage today especially as the NASDAQ is down but it still seems to be holding up at the moment. Just need some good news from Evofem and Arrowhead now!

Below $20 is great at this stage. When it hits $500 (or even $1000) all that matters is the number of shares you're holding.

I'm looking at it this way:

1000 shares @ $1000 share price = $1m

So about 1K shares is right (from my point of view at least), but there's no guarantee that your company makes it to $1000 share price. The answer is to buy a few more shares. Another 1K (2K total) is better IMHO, since you can sell 1K @ $500 and pocket $0.5m, which is not a bad consolation prize if the other 1K of shares don't make it to $1000.

That's the best way to play it I think, at least for the moment. Later on, once the portfolio has doubled a few times (or perhaps sooner), if I can find another good stock (or two) while it's still a penny stock I may try the brute force approach - buy 10,000+ shares. Some on the ARWR YF message board are holding 10,000 (in some cases many times that) ARWR shares bought @ $5 or less.

The biggest problem as always is identifying the right stock/stocks.

BrockStoker

Not so much for my portfolios, but it was a great day for Mrs Brock's portfolio - here's a screenshot I managed to grab when I got back in (had to go shopping), just in time to catch the day's peak:

Edit to add:

I don't know if anyone noticed it, but Amyris made more money in Q4 than in entire 2019, and they also ran out of products to sell! They are building a new factory. I think they need to start thinking about building more, if they have not already.

This is just going to get better and better!

Of course there may be the occasional bump going down the road (buying opportunity!), but we're off to a great start, and much more up than down ahead of us I believe, providing management continue to execute. They seem to have it together, so I have high confidence that they can succeed.

BrockStoker

Two new analyst price targets for AMRS - $33 and $35.

We're heading up!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Two new analyst price targets for AMRS - $33 and $35.

We're heading up!

Heading down first by the look of it today! Good opportunity for buyers. Unfortunately, have bought my limit now!

BrockStoker

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Two new analyst price targets for AMRS - $33 and $35.

We're heading up!

Heading down first by the look of it today! Good opportunity for buyers. Unfortunately, have bought my limit now!

A little bit of consolidation - nothing to worry about. I do wish I had some cash is a wrapper right now! The irony is I have £0.5m sitting in a bank account at the moment. Almost tempted to invest £100K, but I don't want the faff of not having it outside a wrapper!

Cam93

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Two new analyst price targets for AMRS - $33 and $35.

We're heading up!

Heading down first by the look of it today! Good opportunity for buyers. Unfortunately, have bought my limit now!

A little bit of consolidation - nothing to worry about. I do wish I had some cash is a wrapper right now! The irony is I have £0.5m sitting in a bank account at the moment. Almost tempted to invest £100K, but I don't want the faff of not having it outside a wrapper!

Unrelated but I just wanted to say thank you for this thread, I genuinely enjoy reading it and taking some of the advice. Whilst my investments Is about 1-2% of yours I aspire to have your knowledge and research skills for truly understanding your investment choices and not just trying to pick the lucky horse.

I've since brought ARRW, down 12%.
AMRS up about 25% 
Will be buying EVFM shortly which I hope is good timing as I've watched it drop steadily the last week or so but plan to be quite heavily weighted in them as part of my non wrapped portfolio 

BrockStoker

Cam93 said:

BrockStoker said:

moneyfoolish said:

BrockStoker said:

Two new analyst price targets for AMRS - $33 and $35.

We're heading up!

Heading down first by the look of it today! Good opportunity for buyers. Unfortunately, have bought my limit now!

A little bit of consolidation - nothing to worry about. I do wish I had some cash is a wrapper right now! The irony is I have £0.5m sitting in a bank account at the moment. Almost tempted to invest £100K, but I don't want the faff of not having it outside a wrapper!

Unrelated but I just wanted to say thank you for this thread, I genuinely enjoy reading it and taking some of the advice. Whilst my investments Is about 1-2% of yours I aspire to have your knowledge and research skills for truly understanding your investment choices and not just trying to pick the lucky horse.

I've since brought ARRW, down 12%.
AMRS up about 25% 
Will be buying EVFM shortly which I hope is good timing as I've watched it drop steadily the last week or so but plan to be quite heavily weighted in them as part of my non wrapped portfolio 

Thanks for the vote of confidence Cam93, and glad to hear you're enjoying/finding this thread useful. I really was not sure which way this thread would head when I started it, but I like the way it's going now.

It's looking like you bought in at the right times, and now is looking like a great opportunity to pick up some EVFM, so well done!

I hope you and all others who have bought in are coping with the volatility. Personally I find it easy to put it out of my mind, otherwise I might be worried. Knowing/understanding what you are invested in really helps, especially in times like this, and if you can't average down in the dips.That's where the confidence in my picks comes from. My research "skills" are basic at best, but thankfully info is not difficult to find. I think the harder part is ignoring the noise so that you can focus on what is relevant, but I think after a while watching other successful investors you start to get the hang of it. 

Anyway, good luck to all of us holding/buying these stocks!

BrockStoker

@Cam93 - Hoping you held off buying EVFM or at least have not spent your budget for it. It's taken a tumble now, because investors did not like the numbers/earnings. Very short termist! Great buying opportunity now IMHO. I suppose it could go a bit lower before going up again, but anywhere below $3 is a very good price!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

@Cam93 - Hoping you held off buying EVFM or at least have not spent your budget for it. It's taken a tumble now, because investors did not like the numbers/earnings. Very short termist! Great buying opportunity now IMHO. I suppose it could go a bit lower before going up again, but anywhere below $3 is a very good price!

Indeed! It's pretty awful for those of us who bought near the top in the last few weeks! Unfortunately my budget is spent.

Voyager2002

BrockStoker said:

@Cam93 - Hoping you held off buying EVFM or at least have not spent your budget for it. It's taken a tumble now, because investors did not like the numbers/earnings. Very short termist! Great buying opportunity now IMHO. I suppose it could go a bit lower before going up again, but anywhere below $3 is a very good price!

EVFM is down 25 per cent in pre-market trading! That seems a little drastic.
YF says they have filed a "shelf registration": is that a form of bankruptcy?