Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

@adindas I think you've hit the nail on the head.

There does seem to be a massive disconnect between how investing in individual stocks is perceived and how it actually is. The perception is that it's dangerous and as a novice you are almost certain to loose money. I suppose that is possible, if you are somewhat reckless, but even earlier on (when I was making more mistakes) it was still quite forgiving.

Of course that still does not mean it's for everyone, but those with a good plan, the right mindset, and a reasonable level of intelligence should be able to make significant (market beating) returns.

It seems to me that either risk is overstated, or at the very least you can take measures to mitigate most of the risk.

On a personal level I think deciding to invest in individual stocks has been one of the best decisions I've ever made.

BrockStoker

Regarding Arrowhead, most of the data we have so far is preclinical - ie data from sheep, rats, and mice. The data from these preclinical trials has been pretty spectacular so far, but why does it matter? Here is some reading on the subject that was recently posted by WallStPirate on the ARWR YF MB:

https://www.genome.gov/10001345/importance-of-mouse-genome#:~:text=On average, the protein-coding,they are required for function

In short, up till now, the mouse data we have seen (which has been verging on spectacular) usually translates much better in clinical trials with humans - ie if the mouse data was promising, the human data has been significantly better. That is one of the big reasons I'm confident that the data readouts we have coming in the next few months from the ongoing clinical trials will be spectacular, and should result in this being a transformative year for ARWR.

Cus

Hedge fund managers who can consistently beat the market earn multi millions a year.  If you believe you have that skill then use it.

Voyager2002

Cus said:

Hedge fund managers who can consistently beat the market earn multi millions a year.  If you believe you have that skill then use it.

Hedge fund managers actually do a lot more than simply pick stocks (using hedging to manage risk; involvement in private equity...) although stock-picking is plenty for a newbie!

BrockStoker

Merck’s Peloton gives Arrowhead a slipstream

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/snippets/asco-gu-mercks-peloton-gives-arrowhead-slipstream

Put simply, if I'm understanding correctly, Merck's inhibitor act's on the same gene as Arrowhead's program, although targeting and mode of action are different. The implication here is that Arrowhead can improve on already very encouraging results, since it's approach is more targeted (guided missile vs carpet bombing). As well as better efficacy, expect less frequent dosing and less side affects.

This is what I mean when I say Arrowhead only goes for already validated targets, but adding it's own (better) twist. Of course, the proof is in the pudding, which we should see by mid 2021.

IMHO last chance to get in below $100 over the next few weeks.

BrockStoker

More on CRISPR vs Arrowhead:

https://twitter.com/BioBoyScout/status/1360820676077182979

It's no contest it seems!

BrockStoker

First questions over CRISPR, and now questions over gene editing tech in general:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-looks-again-at-bluebird-rivals-after-gene-therapy-setback-51613567941?siteid=yhoof2

My ORTX holding is significantly down because of it, just one day after having hit 100%!

With gene editing possibly out of the picture, there's a real possibility that RNAi is the only next generation therapy "game" with any legs left in town. RNAi looks to be in a particularly sweet spot right now, with multiple strands coming together for ARWR, in what is billed to be a "transformative year" for the company. I've never been as bullish as I am right now!

In other news EVFM is popping (again) today. This follows the launch of the Phexxi TV advertising campaign on Valentines Day:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evofem-biosciences-launches-u-direct-130000064.html

The stock is setting up for a massive run IMHO:

- 325mil market cap. Phexxi sales projected to be 1.5-2.5 BILLION

What is more, there is also the possibility of a short squeeze:

Short interest of float on Jan 29th was just over 12% - The price was $2.63
Short interest of float on Feb 16th was just under 70% - The price was over $4

Durban

Re CRISPR.  Have you looked at Maxcyte?
I started buying Maxcyte in May 2019 and have put in a total of £4000 and made £11,300 profit.

BrockStoker

@Durban Interesting little company. Thanks for sharing. You've done OK with it, and it looks like it's just got started. Picks n shovels - smart investing.

BrockStoker

Dicerna is Arrowhead's competitor (along with ANYL), and there's a fairly decent write up that's just been posted on SA:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406782-dicerna-reasonably-priced-play-in-rnai-space

I don't see why Dicerna (and ANYL) couldn't do OK - there's a large enough pie for everyone to have a few slices - but at the end of the day, neither company is ARWR!