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Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far
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What do people think of BNGO at this point? It was under $10 last time it was mentioned, has been around $14-5 last week or so. Is it overheated? Is it just retail driven speculation or is it legit? There are a lot of zealots out there, so it's difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff!0
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Without having done any meaningful DD, BNGO certainly appears to be the "real deal". The share price *might* have got a bit ahead of itself, but I suspect it will be worth significantly more in a few years.If you look at the price targets it appears to be near fair value, however PTs on YF (which is what I'm looking at) are usually not up to date, and IME, when it comes to disruptive tech stocks analysts are usually afraid to stick their necks out and really say what the stock is worth (either that or they are just trying to keep expectations down).It might be something I would have invested it had I found it before it went up (easy to say with hindsight I guess), and it might still be a very good investment now, but I still prefer the stocks I'm currently holding, mainly because I'd rather put money into stocks I've done a fair amount of DD on, and/or because if I am going to invest in a new stock, I want to find it very early on - preferably when it's a penny stock.0
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This current correction is providing plenty of buying opportunities (ARWR, AMRS, EVFM, SRNE in order of which I'd like most right now). Shame I can not use the cash I have (efficiently at least) till the start of the tax year!It's been a bit of a wild ride the last few days - I've started monitoring all the stock portfolios as a whole, and to give an idea of what has been going on, on Fri 19 Feb the portfolios closed @ a total value of £138,886.14 (or 2.19x orig investment (Tot. invested: £63,410.49) or £75,475.65 gain), and on Tues 23 Feb the closing total was £122,613.61, down over £16K.It's obvious from the last few days that the market still sees the stocks I hold as somewhat speculative, where as me not so much, at least with my favorites (ARWR, AMRS, and EVFM). I'm still super bullish on all my holdings, easpecially ARWR and AMRS with recent signs/updates. ARWR currently has 12 positions open for finance/money specialists and has updated trials in a very positive way for example.Amyris has also been getting attention after announcing the launch of it's "Pipette" clean baby brand in Target stores across the US, and a well written piece about it (recommended reading) on SA entitled "Amyris Hasn't Even Begun To Be Overbought":As pointed out buy Guy (AMRS YF message board), the above is not the whole story about how undervalued AMRS currently is - quote:"A great post from Matt Wooley on an earlier AMRS article on Seeking Alpha about cannabinoids. If you have not read his amazing analysis recently posted, it's a must read. Link is below posted in another thread:
"Their liquidity concerns are based off of the Q3 ER I assume. That will be resolved shortly and is really a bit misleading.
Moreover, $80M of the $175M of debt WILL be converted. The holder of the debt has the option to convert (at like $3) or demand payment. Safe to say at this price they will be converting. So debt is closer to $95M.
They will have $90M in warrant cash coming in (most convertible at 2.87) and they are expected to get $200M in up front payments from two deals to be announced in the next month and a half. They also just received $30M from the sale of one molecule, and will get another $10M for it by 3/31.
Bringing the cash infusion up to $330M vs debt of $95M. The Q1 balance sheet will be a shock to a lot of people.""Earnings are on the 4th IIRC, which is next week.Last, but not least EVFM has recently posted encouraging early sales figures:The next set of figures should include the first weeks or month after the launch of the nationwide TV ad campaign on Feb 14 this year. It would be nice to see the numbers gap up, but even if not significantly, I think the early figures are already quite encouraging!
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BrockStoker said:This current correction is providing plenty of buying opportunities (ARWR, AMRS, EVFM, SRNE in order of which I'd like most right now). Shame I can not use the cash I have (efficiently at least) till the start of the tax year!It's been a bit of a wild ride the last few days - I've started monitoring all the stock portfolios as a whole, and to give an idea of what has been going on, on Fri 19 Feb the portfolios closed @ a total value of £138,886.14 (or 2.19x orig investment (Tot. invested: £63,410.49) or £75,475.65 gain), and on Tues 23 Feb the closing total was £122,613.61, down over £16K.It's obvious from the last few days that the market still sees the stocks I hold as somewhat speculative, where as me not so much, at least with my favorites (ARWR, AMRS, and EVFM). I'm still super bullish on all my holdings, easpecially ARWR and AMRS with recent signs/updates. ARWR currently has 12 positions open for finance/money specialists and has updated trials in a very positive way for example.Amyris has also been getting attention after announcing the launch of it's "Pipette" clean baby brand in Target stores across the US, and a well written piece about it (recommended reading) on SA entitled "Amyris Hasn't Even Begun To Be Overbought":As pointed out buy Guy (AMRS YF message board), the above is not the whole story about how undervalued AMRS currently is - quote:"A great post from Matt Wooley on an earlier AMRS article on Seeking Alpha about cannabinoids. If you have not read his amazing analysis recently posted, it's a must read. Link is below posted in another thread:
"Their liquidity concerns are based off of the Q3 ER I assume. That will be resolved shortly and is really a bit misleading.
Moreover, $80M of the $175M of debt WILL be converted. The holder of the debt has the option to convert (at like $3) or demand payment. Safe to say at this price they will be converting. So debt is closer to $95M.
They will have $90M in warrant cash coming in (most convertible at 2.87) and they are expected to get $200M in up front payments from two deals to be announced in the next month and a half. They also just received $30M from the sale of one molecule, and will get another $10M for it by 3/31.
Bringing the cash infusion up to $330M vs debt of $95M. The Q1 balance sheet will be a shock to a lot of people.""Earnings are on the 4th IIRC, which is next week.Last, but not least EVFM has recently posted encouraging early sales figures:The next set of figures should include the first weeks or month after the launch of the nationwide TV ad campaign on Feb 14 this year. It would be nice to see the numbers gap up, but even if not significantly, I think the early figures are already quite encouraging!
Yes, it's definitely been a bad couple of weeks. I bought ARWR, AMRS and EVFM together with Avacta and Polar Capital Biotechnology. and have gone from a 10% gain to a 10% loss in the last couple of weeks. Even on the couple of days that the NASDAQ has risen, the US stocks have still fallen so I expect your portfolio has gone down even further since the 23rd as all of those stocks have fallen each day since. I'm afraid that as long as the sentiment remains the same these will all continue to go down irrespective of whether the companies have good products and prospects or not. I happened to start watching CNN last night and the stock market prices are continuously showing at the bottom of the screen. I noticed that around 10 mins before the NASDAQ was closing last night it was up around 220 but by the time it closed it was up only 72!
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moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:This current correction is providing plenty of buying opportunities (ARWR, AMRS, EVFM, SRNE in order of which I'd like most right now). Shame I can not use the cash I have (efficiently at least) till the start of the tax year!It's been a bit of a wild ride the last few days - I've started monitoring all the stock portfolios as a whole, and to give an idea of what has been going on, on Fri 19 Feb the portfolios closed @ a total value of £138,886.14 (or 2.19x orig investment (Tot. invested: £63,410.49) or £75,475.65 gain), and on Tues 23 Feb the closing total was £122,613.61, down over £16K.It's obvious from the last few days that the market still sees the stocks I hold as somewhat speculative, where as me not so much, at least with my favorites (ARWR, AMRS, and EVFM). I'm still super bullish on all my holdings, easpecially ARWR and AMRS with recent signs/updates. ARWR currently has 12 positions open for finance/money specialists and has updated trials in a very positive way for example.Amyris has also been getting attention after announcing the launch of it's "Pipette" clean baby brand in Target stores across the US, and a well written piece about it (recommended reading) on SA entitled "Amyris Hasn't Even Begun To Be Overbought":As pointed out buy Guy (AMRS YF message board), the above is not the whole story about how undervalued AMRS currently is - quote:"A great post from Matt Wooley on an earlier AMRS article on Seeking Alpha about cannabinoids. If you have not read his amazing analysis recently posted, it's a must read. Link is below posted in another thread:
"Their liquidity concerns are based off of the Q3 ER I assume. That will be resolved shortly and is really a bit misleading.
Moreover, $80M of the $175M of debt WILL be converted. The holder of the debt has the option to convert (at like $3) or demand payment. Safe to say at this price they will be converting. So debt is closer to $95M.
They will have $90M in warrant cash coming in (most convertible at 2.87) and they are expected to get $200M in up front payments from two deals to be announced in the next month and a half. They also just received $30M from the sale of one molecule, and will get another $10M for it by 3/31.
Bringing the cash infusion up to $330M vs debt of $95M. The Q1 balance sheet will be a shock to a lot of people.""Earnings are on the 4th IIRC, which is next week.Last, but not least EVFM has recently posted encouraging early sales figures:The next set of figures should include the first weeks or month after the launch of the nationwide TV ad campaign on Feb 14 this year. It would be nice to see the numbers gap up, but even if not significantly, I think the early figures are already quite encouraging!
Yes, it's definitely been a bad couple of weeks. I bought ARWR, AMRS and EVFM together with Avacta and Polar Capital Biotechnology. and have gone from a 10% gain to a 10% loss in the last couple of weeks. Even on the couple of days that the NASDAQ has risen, the US stocks have still fallen so I expect your portfolio has gone down even further since the 23rd as all of those stocks have fallen each day since. I'm afraid that as long as the sentiment remains the same these will all continue to go down irrespective of whether the companies have good products and prospects or not. I happened to start watching CNN last night and the stock market prices are continuously showing at the bottom of the screen. I noticed that around 10 mins before the NASDAQ was closing last night it was up around 220 but by the time it closed it was up only 72!It can seem like there's no end in sight, but at least in the case of ARWR and AMRS, I think they should spring back very quickly once the markets start to get a bit more normal again. At the end of the day this is a healthy correction, and although the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater, I always look at times like this as an opportunity to get rid of the weak hands, and for stronger hands/smarter money to move in in their place, giving us a stronger foundation to build on. EVFM, being the more speculative of the 3, might fall further, but out of the 3, I think it has the most potential to make significant gains in a very short space of time, although we may have to wait for the new numbers for that.I think we are still in a much better place than many tech stocks which were starting to blow bubbles. Some ARK funds are down as much as 16% I hear. Rather than over bought stocks, we are sitting on oversold stocks.There was also some good news for AMRS - Roth (Rothschild related?) initiated coverage with a buy rating and PT of $20. Still very conservative, but getting there.Edit to add: Total @ close yesterday was £123,862.95, so only a slight improvement on the close price of the 23rd.
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BrockStoker said:moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:This current correction is providing plenty of buying opportunities (ARWR, AMRS, EVFM, SRNE in order of which I'd like most right now). Shame I can not use the cash I have (efficiently at least) till the start of the tax year!It's been a bit of a wild ride the last few days - I've started monitoring all the stock portfolios as a whole, and to give an idea of what has been going on, on Fri 19 Feb the portfolios closed @ a total value of £138,886.14 (or 2.19x orig investment (Tot. invested: £63,410.49) or £75,475.65 gain), and on Tues 23 Feb the closing total was £122,613.61, down over £16K.It's obvious from the last few days that the market still sees the stocks I hold as somewhat speculative, where as me not so much, at least with my favorites (ARWR, AMRS, and EVFM). I'm still super bullish on all my holdings, easpecially ARWR and AMRS with recent signs/updates. ARWR currently has 12 positions open for finance/money specialists and has updated trials in a very positive way for example.Amyris has also been getting attention after announcing the launch of it's "Pipette" clean baby brand in Target stores across the US, and a well written piece about it (recommended reading) on SA entitled "Amyris Hasn't Even Begun To Be Overbought":As pointed out buy Guy (AMRS YF message board), the above is not the whole story about how undervalued AMRS currently is - quote:"A great post from Matt Wooley on an earlier AMRS article on Seeking Alpha about cannabinoids. If you have not read his amazing analysis recently posted, it's a must read. Link is below posted in another thread:
"Their liquidity concerns are based off of the Q3 ER I assume. That will be resolved shortly and is really a bit misleading.
Moreover, $80M of the $175M of debt WILL be converted. The holder of the debt has the option to convert (at like $3) or demand payment. Safe to say at this price they will be converting. So debt is closer to $95M.
They will have $90M in warrant cash coming in (most convertible at 2.87) and they are expected to get $200M in up front payments from two deals to be announced in the next month and a half. They also just received $30M from the sale of one molecule, and will get another $10M for it by 3/31.
Bringing the cash infusion up to $330M vs debt of $95M. The Q1 balance sheet will be a shock to a lot of people.""Earnings are on the 4th IIRC, which is next week.Last, but not least EVFM has recently posted encouraging early sales figures:The next set of figures should include the first weeks or month after the launch of the nationwide TV ad campaign on Feb 14 this year. It would be nice to see the numbers gap up, but even if not significantly, I think the early figures are already quite encouraging!
Yes, it's definitely been a bad couple of weeks. I bought ARWR, AMRS and EVFM together with Avacta and Polar Capital Biotechnology. and have gone from a 10% gain to a 10% loss in the last couple of weeks. Even on the couple of days that the NASDAQ has risen, the US stocks have still fallen so I expect your portfolio has gone down even further since the 23rd as all of those stocks have fallen each day since. I'm afraid that as long as the sentiment remains the same these will all continue to go down irrespective of whether the companies have good products and prospects or not. I happened to start watching CNN last night and the stock market prices are continuously showing at the bottom of the screen. I noticed that around 10 mins before the NASDAQ was closing last night it was up around 220 but by the time it closed it was up only 72!It can seem like there's no end in sight, but at least in the case of ARWR and AMRS, I think they should spring back very quickly once the markets start to get a bit more normal again. At the end of the day this is a healthy correction, and although the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater, I always look at times like this as an opportunity to get rid of the weak hands, and for stronger hands/smarter money to move in in their place, giving us a stronger foundation to build on. EVFM, being the more speculative of the 3, might fall further, but out of the 3, I think it has the most potential to make significant gains in a very short space of time, although we may have to wait for the new numbers for that.I think we are still in a much better place than many tech stocks which were starting to blow bubbles. Some ARK funds are down as much as 16% I hear. Rather than over bought stocks, we are sitting on oversold stocks.There was also some good news for AMRS - Roth (Rothschild related?) initiated coverage with a buy rating and PT of $20. Still very conservative, but getting there.Edit to add: Total @ close yesterday was £123,862.95, so only a slight improvement on the close price of the 23rd.
EVFM is certainly my biggest loser and is down over 20% since I bought around Feb 10th but I only bought 1/4 the amount in that than I did in either of the other two as I thought it was more speculative.
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moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:moneyfoolish said:BrockStoker said:This current correction is providing plenty of buying opportunities (ARWR, AMRS, EVFM, SRNE in order of which I'd like most right now). Shame I can not use the cash I have (efficiently at least) till the start of the tax year!It's been a bit of a wild ride the last few days - I've started monitoring all the stock portfolios as a whole, and to give an idea of what has been going on, on Fri 19 Feb the portfolios closed @ a total value of £138,886.14 (or 2.19x orig investment (Tot. invested: £63,410.49) or £75,475.65 gain), and on Tues 23 Feb the closing total was £122,613.61, down over £16K.It's obvious from the last few days that the market still sees the stocks I hold as somewhat speculative, where as me not so much, at least with my favorites (ARWR, AMRS, and EVFM). I'm still super bullish on all my holdings, easpecially ARWR and AMRS with recent signs/updates. ARWR currently has 12 positions open for finance/money specialists and has updated trials in a very positive way for example.Amyris has also been getting attention after announcing the launch of it's "Pipette" clean baby brand in Target stores across the US, and a well written piece about it (recommended reading) on SA entitled "Amyris Hasn't Even Begun To Be Overbought":As pointed out buy Guy (AMRS YF message board), the above is not the whole story about how undervalued AMRS currently is - quote:"A great post from Matt Wooley on an earlier AMRS article on Seeking Alpha about cannabinoids. If you have not read his amazing analysis recently posted, it's a must read. Link is below posted in another thread:
"Their liquidity concerns are based off of the Q3 ER I assume. That will be resolved shortly and is really a bit misleading.
Moreover, $80M of the $175M of debt WILL be converted. The holder of the debt has the option to convert (at like $3) or demand payment. Safe to say at this price they will be converting. So debt is closer to $95M.
They will have $90M in warrant cash coming in (most convertible at 2.87) and they are expected to get $200M in up front payments from two deals to be announced in the next month and a half. They also just received $30M from the sale of one molecule, and will get another $10M for it by 3/31.
Bringing the cash infusion up to $330M vs debt of $95M. The Q1 balance sheet will be a shock to a lot of people.""Earnings are on the 4th IIRC, which is next week.Last, but not least EVFM has recently posted encouraging early sales figures:The next set of figures should include the first weeks or month after the launch of the nationwide TV ad campaign on Feb 14 this year. It would be nice to see the numbers gap up, but even if not significantly, I think the early figures are already quite encouraging!
Yes, it's definitely been a bad couple of weeks. I bought ARWR, AMRS and EVFM together with Avacta and Polar Capital Biotechnology. and have gone from a 10% gain to a 10% loss in the last couple of weeks. Even on the couple of days that the NASDAQ has risen, the US stocks have still fallen so I expect your portfolio has gone down even further since the 23rd as all of those stocks have fallen each day since. I'm afraid that as long as the sentiment remains the same these will all continue to go down irrespective of whether the companies have good products and prospects or not. I happened to start watching CNN last night and the stock market prices are continuously showing at the bottom of the screen. I noticed that around 10 mins before the NASDAQ was closing last night it was up around 220 but by the time it closed it was up only 72!It can seem like there's no end in sight, but at least in the case of ARWR and AMRS, I think they should spring back very quickly once the markets start to get a bit more normal again. At the end of the day this is a healthy correction, and although the baby is getting thrown out with the bathwater, I always look at times like this as an opportunity to get rid of the weak hands, and for stronger hands/smarter money to move in in their place, giving us a stronger foundation to build on. EVFM, being the more speculative of the 3, might fall further, but out of the 3, I think it has the most potential to make significant gains in a very short space of time, although we may have to wait for the new numbers for that.I think we are still in a much better place than many tech stocks which were starting to blow bubbles. Some ARK funds are down as much as 16% I hear. Rather than over bought stocks, we are sitting on oversold stocks.There was also some good news for AMRS - Roth (Rothschild related?) initiated coverage with a buy rating and PT of $20. Still very conservative, but getting there.Edit to add: Total @ close yesterday was £123,862.95, so only a slight improvement on the close price of the 23rd.
EVFM is certainly my biggest loser and is down over 20% since I bought around Feb 10th but I only bought 1/4 the amount in that than I did in either of the other two as I thought it was more speculative.When I was in a similar position with BCRX, I bought more, and those buys were my largest percentage gainers, at least up till Amyris' recent performance. Likewise with AMRS, at one point after I'd bought it, it went below $2. Mrs Brock wanted me to sell @ around -22%. I would have bought more (wish I had!) if it was my portfolio.Of course there's no guarantee EVFM will follow the same pattern, but I do think it has a great chance of doing so. In some ways it's actually less speculative than ARWR - eg. FDA approved, on the shelves, and generating cash though actual sales.Had there been some cash in my account on Friday I would have probably bought a few K more EVFM, with the hope it goes parabolic in the next few weeks, in which case I'd probably sell some and buy more ARWR (if it was still fairly cheap), but usually when I've tried to time it like that it never quite works out - what I've sold goes up, and what I've bought falls/goes sideways (although I think that would be unlikely in this case), at least for a while!I think you did the right thing, buying EVFM when you did - just a case of being patient now - something which I need to do more of!1 -
AMRS to report earnings before opening bell tomorrow. Should be an interesting day!Portfolio total back up to where it was on the 24th, just over £130K. Looks like things are heading back to "normal", for the time being at least.PS. BNGO also got some good press from SA:
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Also of note in regards to Arrowhead, besides the new IND being filed, there has been significant accumulation by institutions over the last few days:1
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BrockStoker said:AMRS to report earnings before opening bell tomorrow. Should be an interesting day!Portfolio total back up to where it was on the 24th, just over £130K. Looks like things are heading back to "normal", for the time being at least.PS. BNGO also got some good press from SA:
Some nervous people on stocktwits. I saw one post which reckons could be a swing of 30% either way tomorrow depending on the earnings figures! A few worried that it moved down from over $16 back to $15.66 before the close. We shall see!! I've seen several negative comments about advertisments EVFM have recently been pouring out and the impact of their cost without great results in sales. It's certainly my biggest loser at the moment. Down over 23% since Feb18th!!!
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