Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Somewhat disappointing end to the day, but I don't think it detracts too much from the earlier buying. I did cancel the 200 AMRS @ $15.40 order, and put in an order at a limit of $15.98 instead around 15 minutes before close. The new order only partially completed, although at least this time it was a nice round number (100). That's a minor gripe I have with iWeb, although it only happens occasionally. The least they could do is waive the dealing charge if an order only partially completes! It means I have to pay a second dealing charge if I want to achieve my originally intended aim. In that respect AJB seems 100% better - it either fully completes or does not.

Also bought another 250 BNGO, but once again I'm confused about exactly what I paid. When I check my portfolio on AJB it says "$7.39" in the "price" column, but that does not sound right to me. Before I added the second lot of 250 BNGO shares it said "$8.15", but I bought the second lot when the price was around $7.40 according to YF.

Likewise with my 5K of EVFM shares on AJB - today it said $1.81, but last night it said something else, when nothing had changed in the mean time. None of those prices seem to correspond with past valuation points, and they don't change when refreshed (even during trading hours), so I'm confused as to what they actually represent!?

I still have a bit more dry powder left after 3 days of buying, but I have a feeling we've seen bottom more or less. The sector has been scraping the bottom for a few weeks now, and perhaps it will for a bit longer, but unless there's a change in fundamentals, I doubt stocks will go much lower. Also, every day is a day closer to good news, and the floodgates will come under a great deal of strain when it comes. It may be the case that at these prices a major merger/acquisition in the sector is announced (Big Pharma loves to pick up bargains as do we all), and the whole sector will be off again.

underground99

BrockStoker said:

...I have a feeling we've seen bottom more or less. The sector has been scraping the bottom for a few weeks now, and perhaps it will for a bit longer, but unless there's a change in fundamentals, I doubt stocks will go much lower. Also, every day is a day closer to good news...

Sounds a bit like 'famous last words'.  As examples for the stocks mentioned in your post - BNGO at $7.5 is 50% higher than 3 months ago; AMRS at your $16 order price is is 70% higher than the $9 at end of Jan. So 'scraping the bottom' sounds a bit off, they could easily fall significantly further.

I feel your pain on AJB prices on the portfolio view - for interntional stocks they often show a stale price from previous close.

Voyager2002

@BrockStoker are you tempted to by Sorrento at current prices? Despite getting your fingers burned earlier?

csgohan4

investing in these stocks are high risk, it isn't something you will know for certain will go up. EVFM has reached highs of 80+ and now languishing at 2%+ of that previous high. Whether it is bottom or not is difficult to predict.

Only invest what your willing to lose. I've invested some coin in biotech recently, seeing an opportunity, only time will tell

BrockStoker

underground99 said:

BrockStoker said:

...I have a feeling we've seen bottom more or less. The sector has been scraping the bottom for a few weeks now, and perhaps it will for a bit longer, but unless there's a change in fundamentals, I doubt stocks will go much lower. Also, every day is a day closer to good news...

Sounds a bit like 'famous last words'.  As examples for the stocks mentioned in your post - BNGO at $7.5 is 50% higher than 3 months ago; AMRS at your $16 order price is is 70% higher than the $9 at end of Jan. So 'scraping the bottom' sounds a bit off, they could easily fall significantly further.

I'm talking about the sector itself. If you look at IBB (a Biotech ETF), on March 4 it hit the bottom (more or less) of this current dip, and it's pretty much gone sideways since then.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBB?p=IBB

Of course I acknowledge the sector/individual stocks could potentially fall further from here, but it looks to me like this is bottom, as long as there is not a significant change in fundamentals - eg bond yields heading up again, or something fundamental for one of the stocks we are discussing here.

underground99 said:

I feel your pain on AJB prices on the portfolio view - for interntional stocks they often show a stale price from previous close.

Thanks. I guess the best way to get a fairly accurate USD average share price for every individual lot would be to borrow the FX rate from iWeb for the same day, even though it may be not exactly the same as that used by AJB?

BrockStoker

Voyager2002 said:

@BrockStoker are you tempted to by Sorrento at current prices? Despite getting your fingers burned earlier?

Yes, I'm tempted to average down my share price for SRNE. I nearly did yesterday. Might do today instead!

BrockStoker

Snagged another 100 ARWR while the price dipped under $62. Might grab something else, but getting close to just "loose change" left to play with. Nice to see AMRS flying today!

moneyfoolish

BrockStoker said:

Snagged another 100 ARWR while the price dipped under $62. Might grab something else, but getting close to just "loose change" left to play with. Nice to see AMRS flying today!

Unfortunately had the usual slide as the day went on although still up, BS.

Moe_The_Bartender

EVFM still going down while possibility of bankruptcy goes up.

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/EVFM/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

BrockStoker

Moe_The_Bartender said:

EVFM still going down while possibility of bankruptcy goes up.

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/EVFM/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

Would you say that, after a company has had a successful secondary offering, raising significant cash ($30M), it's probability of bankruptcy has gone up compared to before the offering?

I really don't have much faith in algo driven analysis sites. Even human generated analysis can mislead, but IMHO algos should be treated with even more distrust.

What are you trying to prove here anyway? I think most here who know the backstory realize:

EVFM is trading on a discount because it's risky

EVFM is more likely to go bankrupt than most other stocks discussed on this thread

However, some of us think there is a significant possibility that EVFM can turn it around, and with cash in the bank, a good product, and fast growing sales, I think it's hard to ignore that possibility.