Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

ABrass

VWG are making the ID.3 which is a model 3 competitor. They're actually building it now and are likely to be in the top 5 EV manufacturers in the world in 2020. Which is a big step up.

Toyota doesn't believe in EVs. Which is deeply disapointing. They are fully into the hydrogen fuel cell and scorn batteries.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

You're assuming that the move to EVs is going to be consumer lead ... it's not ... it's going to be driven by legislation. An example already in the pipeline is the fine the EU is planning to levy from 2021 on carmakers that exceed an average of 95g/km. Those fines are effectively increasing the cost of ICE vehicles.

I've heard this argument many times
To which I simply reply, why do you think regulators can or will push the market faster than it can go? Some people even push the argument that the ICE companies will go bankrupt due to regulations. This is ridiculous why would German regulators bankruptcy VW.... to fill the pockets of Tesla? It won't happen. Regulations will move at a pace the ICE companies can meet

The 95g/km number can be hit with affordable hybrid technology
Not plug in, just normal Hybrids gets you sub 95g/km
Even ICE models can get sub 95g/km

And I think this is the way the market will go
Most cars of all sizes and shapes will become hybrids
These hybrids will improve their urban cycle mpg efficiency by 2x or more

The fuel savings from Hybrids are just about worth it so it will happen
There is also no manufacturing limits in that a small hybrid might only need 1-2KWh battery Vs 60KWh for a model 3

How many years did it take Toyota to equip the Prius with a charging cable?? Not exactly at the cutting edge of vehicle electrification are they?

Why would they want or need to electrify their sales? Just because you'd like them to?

You or the converts here may want an EV
The average person wants a car
Their primary concern is cost
Which is why the top 10 selling cars in the UK have a mix adjusted price of £16,000 including the VAT while the only mass market EV that we have a reasonable guess of cost is the model 3 at £43,000. sure cheaper EVs exist but you don't know how much those other models are cross subbed

If regulators push for lower emmissions the ICE companies will just release more hybrids or push their efficient ICE lineup

BTW Toyota expects to easily meet its 95g/km target because it has efficient models and hybrids

The next step is plug in hybrids
And finally if prices fall enough full range EVs

Right now prices are too expensive and despite the internet fact that batteries are falling in price the fact is the model 3 costs no less today than it did 2.5 years ago.

And despite many people hating on the ICE companies for not releasing compelling cheap BEVs
Why don't you say the same about Tesla. Why isn't Tesla releasing compelling cheap BEVs?
Where is the Tesla £25,000 EV with 200+ mile range?
And I doubt you are annoyed with Toyota or VW not realising a £43,000-£60,000 BEV which they can probably do but customers probably mostly can't afford

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

VWG are making the ID.3 which is a model 3 competitor. They're actually building it now and are likely to be in the top 5 EV manufacturers in the world in 2020. Which is a big step up.

ID3 isn't a model 3 competitor
It's a small hatchback not a sedan
The price point is also very very different £30,000 Vs £43,000

I hope it does very well but cheaper BEVs are needed
Not £30,000 ID3s not £43,000 M3s
£16,000 is the mix adjusted average price of the too 10 selling cars in the UK
You need s price point close to that if you want mass conversion

Toyota doesn't believe in EVs. Which is deeply disapointing. They are fully into the hydrogen fuel cell and scorn batteries.

Toyota is Europe lowest emmissions seller of ice cars

Their hybrid technology works today and is affordable today
Corrolla hybrid (about the same size as a model 3) real world 63mpg better than even a tiny polo!!
The emmissions of this hybrid corrolla are also lower than the emmissions of a model 3 in Germany or China

Also Toyota do make electric cars
Their hydrogen cars are electric cars
Only the battery is a fuel cell
Everything else is the same as a BEV
If excessive wind and solar is going to be converted to hydrogen as many on here want/hope then Toyota wind out as they would have cheap hydrogen to paper their fuel cells cars

Personally I don't think there will be any signifcant hydrogen production from excess renewables so I wouldn't bet on fuel cells. But if excess hydrogen production does happen their fuel cell investments would pay off. But as noted in don't think this is likely

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

So why aren't VAG & Toyota making a £42000 vehicle to compete with the TM3. They both have premium brands that can justify that price tag?

M3 is £43,000 before sub not £42,000

Probably because they don't think/believe they can convince their customers to pay the premium for such a car. An Audi A4 can be had for £24,000 they probably don't believe they can charge £43,000 for an Electrified A4

Would you pay this difference?
The exact same car but a jump from £24,000 to £43,000?

I don't think any of the ICE companies can convince their customers to pay silo much more
Their only chance is brining out a totally new brand and sell it as even more premium than Audi

But what is the market for that?
There is only limited market for more expensive cars

We would all agree an Audi A4 is nicer and better than a golf
So why/how does WV sell more golf than A4s?
Well isn't it obvious. The golf at £18,000 is cheaper than the A4 at £24,000

So you are VW CEO
You know you sell 800,000 golf for around £18,000
You know you sell 345,000 A4 for around £24,000

And some internet expert comes to you and says.... Boss I got a great idea let's sell a £43,000 EV
Your first question is... How many can we sell at that price point?
The reasonable answer to this is.... Not many

BTW VW tried to go high end with models like the phaeton
It failed. People just don't associate VW with premium end
It's slightly upper middle
They couldn't push a £43,000 car under the VW badge

Even under the Audi badge it's not likely
They could potentially have made a brand new brand
More costly than Audi
And sold pure EVs under that brand
Maybe it would have worked
But what's the point
Tesla hasn't made an annual profit since it's birth
It might do in 2020 but then it might not do
And even if it does this is a flex brand with limited reach

I don't see why people find this so difficult
People blaming VW or Toyota for what exactly?
Not bringing out unaffordable EVs?
Or not brining out affordable EVs
If the latter then blame Tesla too
Why don't Tesla bring out a model 2 for $30,000 and a model 1 for $20,000

Comparing even the base model 3 with the cheapest golf/polo etc is meaningless because the Tesla is fully specced & in a completely different stratosphere when it comes to performance.

And what's your point?

I agree but most of you are blaming the big car companies for not electrifying

Are you upset for lack of £43,000 electrified A4s??
Or are you upset for lack of £20,000 electrified EVs?

As I keep reminding everyone
Toyota ASP $23,000
Tesla $61,000

You can blame the ICE companies for being too slow when Tesla brings out a $25,000 model EV with 200 mile range. Right now no one has a mass market 100,000+ a year affordable EV

You have no grounds to blame a company with $23,000 ASP products and customers who can afford $23,000 for not pivoting their while existence into trying to sell $61,000 ASP products

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

Toyota could be making a full electric Lexus but they're not.

What does 'toyota could be making a full Electric lexus' actually mean?
Be more clear. Are you suggesting they could make a Lexus brand EV at Lexus price point and sell 100,000+ of them?

Let's take a look

700,000 lexus sales total
That's <7% of Toyota
There simply isn't huge demand for premium cars
Irrespective of the powertrain the masses simply don't have the money for premium end stuff
Hell it's called premium for a reason the average person can't afford it

Also going off Forbes data the ASP of a Lexus is £25,250 + sales taxes
The lower price of a model 3 is £35,800+VAT
Total different price points

As I keep saying
Tesla has managed to form a premium premium brand

What exactly are you complaining about
The lack of Toyota Lexas EVs at price points starting from £43,000?

Of course your not complaining about that
You're complaining about the mass manufacturers not producing mass electrified vehicles at affordable prices. While not complain that neither is Tesla doing that?

VW best seller globally is the Polo as low as £12,500 including VAT in the UK
Tell me how you want them to electrify that model?
Or accept the reality. That right now EVs are too expensive for all but the premium of the premium end

Tesla hasn't proven affordable EVs
Tesla has proven unaffordable EVs
They've proven a premium if premium end £43,000 model 3
The top 10 selling cars in the UK have s mix average closer to £16,000

Stop blaming the ICE manufacturers for not being able to build EVs close.to their ASPs
And don't expect VW whose best selling car starts at £12,500 to exit that market of cheap affordable ICE cars. They would lose out. Consumers would lose out

And for what really
A small amount of emmissions savings?
Throw a few more wind turbines up or cancel the nuclear phase out if you think that's important

1961Nick

It was you that said that Toyotas were too cheap to enter the EV market. I merely pointed out that the Lexus brand is premium & therefore not cheap.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

It was you that said that Toyotas were too cheap to enter the EV market. I merely pointed out that the Lexus brand is premium & therefore not cheap.

Lexus CT = £23,458
Audi A4 = £24,000
Model 3 = £43,000

Few people have the ability and desire to pay £43,000 for an Electrified A4 or Electrified CT

almillar

Great Ape:

How do you know EVs are getting cheaper?
You don't know the cost of a Zoe one part of the business can be subsidising another part and with EU regs this is definitely the case indirectly if not directly

They're being sold for a lower price. If you want to guess about subsidising go ahead. All you're doing is guessing.
What is the price per kWh of a Li-Ion battery? Just about down to $100 per kWh? What was it 10 years ago? I know you know what part of an EV is the most expensive!
Why are you so determined that a product being produced in growing numbers, is NOT getting cheaper?
And which part of Tesla is subsidising the EV side? They don't have ICE manufacture to lean on.

What about a Tesla model 3
It's been out nearly 2.5 years and you keep telling me how batteries keep going down in price so so fast. Then why haven't model 3 prices fallen? In fact as the best selling EV don't you think that should be the metric? In which case you need to change your assertions to EVs aren't falling in price........

As I mention in the other thread, they can't keep up with demand, so don't need to. And they're making plenty of investments. And I think you'll find, if you zoom out a bit, that the Model 3, their latest car, is cheaper than the Model S. That, in itself, shows EVs getting cheaper, and I guess Tesla would argue that they couldn't have done the Model 3, at the time they launched the Model S.

Wasn't it meant to be the affordable car for the masses? £40,000 .... Vs the average price of the top 10 selling cars in the UK .....£16,000

It's too expensive for me, that's for sure.

My assertions are just stating the blooming obvious
Your assertions are guesswork

You owe me one irony-meter, you just broke mine.

So I will say once more
ICE cars are cheaper
ICE powertrains are obviously cheaper than EV powertrain

We're not in disagreement over either of the above statements, right now.

And I'll add something else as a fact
The most popular EV in the world, it's price hasn't fallen in 2.5 years and no one, including you, expects it's price to be cut notably so why keep pushing the fake news that EVs are getting cheaper??

Because you're focusing on one EV, and ignoring all the other EVs. Simple enough? And whilst you have mostly been talking about manufacturing costs, you've now switched over to retail cost, to fit your argument.

Especially for Europe a model 2 and model 1 are more important price points and segments

Absolutely agree. Tesla's cars, unsurprisingly, do look very American over here! Even the Model 3 is a big car IMO.

Costs have fallen so they are starting to design and produce ID3 which will probably retail for £30,000

You're literally arguing with me that costs have not fallen because Teslas haven't come down in price!

If customers really want BEVs at BEV price points why aren't there huge waiting lines for the leaf?

Aparantly there are (my source = ABrass). Do you want to back up this claim, or drop it?

Tesla is more flex than Audi

Flex! Do you have some kind of flex chart so that we can all know who's the most 'flex'?!!

While more on depth thinking shows all that has been proven is that Tesla finds its extremely difficult to build EVs at a profit

We all need to acknowledge that Tesla is a special case. They're a new car company. All the others already have factories, dealer networks etc. They have to re-invest so much money (and more!) to get themselve built up. Holding them up as an example, for either side of the argument, doesn't work IMO, because they're so unique.

The other EV models we don't know their costs and cross subsidised nature

A nice big easy statement to hide behind, after you've been called out on all other avenues, and all your guesses at manufacturing costs.

The polo is as low as £12,500 the golf £18,000 and the Tiguan can be had below £20,000
The golf would need a battery pack about the same kWh as the model 3 for acceptible range

'Can be had for as little as' means base model. You've been called out on this again and again, but it never sinks in. EVs are generally higher spec, and you're not comparing like with like. And if you're going to CarWow ICE cars, you have to do the same with EV. Don't you understand like-for-like, such a basic concept?

The e golf has a crippled 90 miles on the motorway and costs £27,000 and there is probably cross subbing going on.

It's an old model now, available from stock only according to VW website, and the price is £25k+ from memory. A poor example, as I've said before. G-Wiz is a terrible 'car' if you want to use something outdated and rubbish.

Sure these are base trim prices
But guess what the £43,000 model 3 is also the lower end model 3 trim

Both base trim? Both the same? NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

probably cross subbed

No arguing with that. Because it's just a wild, desperate guess. You didn't bring this up for weeks while we were talking about the cost of EVs, why do you only bring it up now?

ID3 isn't a model 3 competitor
It's a small hatchback not a sedan
The price point is also very very different £30,000 Vs £43,000

Agreed.

Also Toyota do make electric cars
Their hydrogen cars are electric cars
Only the battery is a fuel cell
Everything else is the same as a BEV
If excessive wind and solar is going to be converted to hydrogen as many on here want/hope then Toyota wind out as they would have cheap hydrogen to paper their fuel cells cars

You've told us there's very rarely excess renewable energy, so Toyota won't be doing many hydrogen miles on that. Plus, it's much easier to just shove it into batteries!

M3 is £43,000 before sub not £42,000

With the numbers you're throwing around, you're in no position to argue over a grand!

We're talking about Audi an awful lot without mentioning the e-tron. Why not just get it over with and compare it to the Model X?

JKenH

GA, almillar, you have both argued your cases very well (and with patience on both sides) so I think we have all got the gist of your arguments. As you are unlikely to agree and neither wants to leave arguments unanswered this could go on for a while longer yet. Could I as an outside observer intervene and suggest we draw a line under it now and neither of you need feel you are conceding any points by failing to argue further.

I would say I have enjoyed the exchange and thank you both.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

And which part of Tesla is subsidising the EV side? They don't have ICE manufacture to lean on.

They do indirectly as they get paid hundreds of millions of dollar from ICE companies to meet regs by fleet blending

The Model 3, their latest car, is cheaper than the Model S. That, in itself, shows EVs getting cheaper

For real?
Why not look at model S prices in 2012 to today rather than jump total categories
How much did the model S cost in 2012? How much does it cost today?



BTW I do think EV powertrain costs have and will fall
I don't see the end consumer benefiting anytime soon though
Because the falls in cost will accompany falls in subsidies
And the falls in cost will allow more compelling vehicles
And the falls in cost will allow a hugely loss making EV manufacturer to become a break even manufacturer

All of these will mean the deployment rate of EVs will be a fraction of the cheerleaders exponential growth charts drawn in crayons. Just as was the case for PV predictions made a decade ago

You could get a model 3 for $35,000 minus $7,500 federal tax credit = $27,500
Today really the only option is the SR+ at $41,190
So while costs have fallen consumer prices have risen... significantly
The difference turned the hugely loss making company to maybe making its first annual profit in 2020

The problem here however is that the top 10 selling ICE models in the UK are mix blend £16,000 While a model 3 is £43,000

Tesla hasn't proven affordable EVs they've proven some demand for unaffordable flex EVs

My general point is
EVs are clearly significantly more expensive than ICE
£43,000 v £16,000
And to hold your horses EVs aren't taking over the world anytime soon
No one has a compelling EV to match the world's top selling ICE cars

Polo £12,685 some 800,000 units pa
Golf £17,487 some 800,000 units pa
Tiguan £19,842 some 800,000 units pa