Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

Sounds good. Apologies if mentioned before.

Renault Will Introduce The Twingo Z.E. This Year

almillar

You're arguing for the sake of arguing

I'm correcting or pointing out you getting things wrong, or estimating things, running away with them, and reporting something as fact. Or not comparing like-for-like. You're making massive statements based on flawed logic. If I'm wrong, tell me again that a Clio is half the price of a Zoe. Go on.

Me: ICE powertrain are cheaper than EV powertrain...here is my estimate based on X y z
You: YOU DONT KNIW THST FOR SURE!!!
Me: that's why it's called an estimate
You: YOU DONT KNOW THST FOR SURE!!!!!!

I pointed out several things, and you don't seem to have addressed any of them. Do you want to go back and have a look? Are you so offended by someone questioning you? If you were a scientist you would publish a paper, and other scientists would read it. It's called peer review. Don't take offense, deal with it. By which I mean, actually do deal with the queries I've made.

Me: the exact number isn't all that relevent I'm pointing out the simple fact that compelling ICE vehicles exist from £6,700+VAT upwards and their powertrain is obviously a percentage of their cost and that percentage is well below 100% since the rest of the car or its advertising and selling isn't £0

We can mostly agree here. We can agree that an i10's powertrain is well below 100% of its cost. We can't, however, just spit out 20%, 30%, 40%, then use this as the basis for saying they're cheaper than EVs. You don't need exact numbers, but come on. They ARE cheaper than EVs, now, but you're just sticking fake numbers on it as if it's a stat you've got from somewhere.

You: YOU DONT KNIW THST FOR SURE!!!!!!!!!
YOU: BEVs will get cheaper!!!!!!1!!!

BEVs ARE getting cheaper. We've been over this. Zoe 22kWh, £25k, 2014. Zoe 50kWh, £25k, 2020. 6 years, same price, inflation busting, oh, and TWICE the battery capacity. You didn't address this before, will you please do so this time? See, I'm throwing real life, publicly accessible DATA at you, and you're upset I'm arguing with your guesses.

As if just saying BEVs will get cheaper is a get out of jail card for everything

They have done. They are. They will continue to. It will slow. They will never cost £0. At the same time, ICE will get more expensive.


If you don't want me to keep arguing with your claims, stop making them, without the slightest bit of backup. Your estimates are often exaggerated and always going against EV bias, on the basis of a couple of threads.

silverwhistle

JKenH wrote: »

If you can live with 140mile range and most people should be able to then the widely available and cheap Nissan Leaf does most of what the e-Niro and Kona do at about two thirds of the price. Why aren’t Nissan selling more?
I think as more 50kwh plus models come to market take up of BEVs from mainstream brands will be greater.

I don't disagree with much of what you said but it's not exactly cheap in terms of the market I'm in. I don't expect to pay the 4k of my last few purchases (for >6 years of motoring in each case), but even accounting for savings in fuel, car tax and servicing there's an awful lot more capital and depreciation involved in an EV. That's allowing for the current _lack_ of depreciation, but as I keep cars a long time that's not much of an advantage to me.


Now, any more modern car will be more comfortable but I'm very much into function, not performance or prestige. In the case of Nissan the 30kWh Leaf's I could afford can have issues over battery degradation, and for charging I'd rather have the CCS of the Ioniq. The latter even SH is still too expensive for me to justify.


So in my case I'd actually like depreciation to move towards ICE levels. It's a complicated business at the moment but let's hope all the early adopters start upgrading to the new models arriving this year! I'm certainly keeping a close watch on the market.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Start the morning with a bit of controversy perhaps:-

The only EV's that are selling well are from Tesla.

Oops, I may have 'missed' out a key bit:

"The only EV's that are selling well are from Tesla."

Tomomi Nakamura
President, Subaru

They have a cunning plan, their aim is that by 2030 40% of their car sales will be 'electrified' (not necessarily BEV's, could be PHEV's, HEV's), I'll predict that if they 'achieve' this, then they won't be around much longer.

Martyn1981

Looks lie Tesla learnt from being optimistic about the TM3 rollout dates, and sandbagged the hell out of the TMY 'real' rollout:

Tesla Model Y first deliveries expected in February,

Tesla Model Y deliveries will reportedly start next month with customers who ordered the Performance variant of the much-awaited electric crossover getting the first dibs. The Long Range All-Wheel Drive version will arrive in March or April, and deliveries of the full lineup set to be completed by Q3 this year.

The latest Model Y news was shared by Redditor u/Quaf4 who got a call from an employee at Tesla Oakville in Ontario, Canada on Tuesday.

JKenH

silverwhistle wrote: »

I don't disagree with much of what you said but it's not exactly cheap in terms of the market I'm in. I don't expect to pay the 4k of my last few purchases (for >6 years of motoring in each case), but even accounting for savings in fuel, car tax and servicing there's an awful lot more capital and depreciation involved in an EV. That's allowing for the current _lack_ of depreciation, but as I keep cars a long time that's not much of an advantage to me.


Now, any more modern car will be more comfortable but I'm very much into function, not performance or prestige. In the case of Nissan the 30kWh Leaf's I could afford can have issues over battery degradation, and for charging I'd rather have the CCS of the Ioniq. The latter even SH is still too expensive for me to justify.


So in my case I'd actually like depreciation to move towards ICE levels. It's a complicated business at the moment but let's hope all the early adopters start upgrading to the new models arriving this year! I'm certainly keeping a close watch on the market.

Sorry, I was just saying the Leaf is cheap compared to other new BEVs.

I wouldn’t worry too much about battery degradation on the 30kwh Leaf. If you join the Nissan Leaf Owner’s Facebook group you will see a lot of discussion and data points and if you do your homework with the LeafSpy app on any potential purchase you can get a very good indication of battery health. I was talking to an Uber taxi driver with a 30kwh Leaf (the only BEV taxi in Sheffield) and with careful management of his battery its ‘state of health’ is showing as 100% after 78k miles. Regular use seems to be good for the batteries, better than them sitting around at high or low levels of charge. Don’t take too much notice of the doomsayers.

My 30 kwh is at about 95% and I managed a 102 mile trip in it last week to drop it off at my son’s.

Edit: I forgot, the 30kwh Leaf has an 8 year 100 miles 70% battery warranty.

This video on sub £10k electric cars is worth a watch if you are in the cheap EV market.
https://youtu.be/P0bo3SHubhA

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

I'm correcting or pointing out you getting things wrong, or estimating things, running away with them, and reporting something as fact. Or not comparing like-for-like. You're making massive statements based on flawed logic. If I'm wrong, tell me again that a Clio is half the price of a Zoe. Go on.

I pointed out several things, and you don't seem to have addressed any of them. Do you want to go back and have a look? Are you so offended by someone questioning you? If you were a scientist you would publish a paper, and other scientists would read it. It's called peer review. Don't take offense, deal with it. By which I mean, actually do deal with the queries I've made.

We can mostly agree here. We can agree that an i10's powertrain is well below 100% of its cost. We can't, however, just spit out 20%, 30%, 40%, then use this as the basis for saying they're cheaper than EVs. You don't need exact numbers, but come on. They ARE cheaper than EVs, now, but you're just sticking fake numbers on it as if it's a stat you've got from somewhere.

BEVs ARE getting cheaper. We've been over this. Zoe 22kWh, £25k, 2014. Zoe 50kWh, £25k, 2020. 6 years, same price, inflation busting, oh, and TWICE the battery capacity. You didn't address this before, will you please do so this time? See, I'm throwing real life, publicly accessible DATA at you, and you're upset I'm arguing with your guesses.

They have done. They are. They will continue to. It will slow. They will never cost £0. At the same time, ICE will get more expensive.

If you don't want me to keep arguing with your claims, stop making them, without the slightest bit of backup. Your estimates are often exaggerated and always going against EV bias, on the basis of a couple of threads.

How do you know EVs are getting cheaper?
You don't know the cost of a Zoe one part of the business can be subsidising another part and with EU regs this is definitely the case indirectly if not directly

What about a Tesla model 3
It's been out nearly 2.5 years and you keep telling me how batteries keep going down in price so so fast. Then why haven't model 3 prices fallen? In fact as the best selling EV don't you think that should be the metric? In which case you need to change your assertions to EVs aren't falling in price........

Wasn't it meant to be the affordable car for the masses? £40,000 .... Vs the average price of the top 10 selling cars in the UK .....£16,000


My assertions are just stating the blooming obvious
Your assertions are guesswork

So I will say once more
ICE cars are cheaper
ICE powertrains are obviously cheaper than EV powertrain

And I'll add something else as a fact
The most popular EV in the world, it's price hasn't fallen in 2.5 years and no one, including you, expects it's price to be cut notably so why keep pushing the fake news that EVs are getting cheaper?? :rotfl:

zeupater

almillar wrote: »

... BEVs ARE getting cheaper. We've been over this. Zoe 22kWh, £25k, 2014. Zoe 50kWh, £25k, 2020. 6 years, same price, inflation busting, oh, and TWICE the battery capacity. You didn't address this before, will you please do so this time? See, I'm throwing real life, publicly accessible DATA at you, and you're upset I'm arguing with your guesses ...

Hi

Similar happening with Tesla, general downward pricing trend despite inflationary pressures ...

To illustrate this it's probably best to look at US pricing as this would negate exchange rate changes ... so ( https://insideevs.com/news/343373/teslas-confusing-price-changes-heres-a-chart-of-the-adjustments/ ) analysis from last year would give an idea .... I believe that a further round of small reductions were announced for the M3 mid year alongside increases in the lower volume models (S&X).

As global build & sales volumes increase I'd expect Tesla to consolidate their EV sector competitive advantage by passing some of their fixed cost element amortisation savings to the customer whilst still utilising their significant unit margins to continue rapid expansion ....

Interesting times for legacy manufacturers if they continue down their chosen path, particularly so at their current pace of change .... who knows, if they become too complacent there's a number of consumer electronics companies that probably wouldn't mind a slice of the cake!

HTH
Z

silverwhistle

JKenH wrote: »

if you do your homework with the LeafSpy app on any potential purchase you can get a very good indication of battery health.

Thanks, yes, some of the ones I've seen advertised have only 89/90% battery SoH which is pushing it a bit given it would be my only car. That's if they advertise the SoH at all! Some people have improved matters by a better charging regime after purchase.



I think another year with my current car and then I'll be thinking more seriously about it. It's got plenty of life in it: my misdiagnosis of a faulty starter motor led me to find a dodgy earth and I'm inordinately pleased with myself that the starting issues have been resolved!

GreatApe

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Similar happening with Tesla, general downward pricing trend despite inflationary pressures ...
Z

Their SR+ version is $39,990 + $1,200 destination charge = $41,190 which is a good deal higher than the $35,000 they briefly touched upon

This is despite supposedly costs of batteries falling like a stone during that time

More importantly is the reality that the mass market is not at an average $60,000 car the mass market sellers like Toyota and VW have average selling prices closer to $23,000

Tesla will have to release cheaper models & versions or it will top out around the 3-4 million units a year mark. To become the size of Toyota or VW or even exceed them they need to release a model 2 and a model 1 with cheaper prices

Model 1 small 125 mile range BEV ~$20,000
Model 2 medium 180 mile range BEV ~$30,000
Model 3 existing 250 mile range BEV ~$40,000

These are still considerably more expensive than what would be their competitors
Polo $14,000
Golf $20,000
A4 $26,000
So Tesla would have to retain a more premium flex brand image to keep sales up and they can probably do that

Especially for Europe a model 2 and model 1 are more important price points and segments
The best selling car in the EU is the Golf ~$20,000 and the third best selling is the Polo ~$14,000 these are before VATs