Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

This is a great vid, it sets out how Tesla may be causing problems for competitors, and thereby reducing production of BEV's. I'm always saying we need more companies to make more BEV's, but they face the problem of producing enough vehicles to get their costs down, whilst struggling to sell due to Tesla's presence. Hopefully they will just dive in, like VW, they have to bite the bullet eventually.

Tesla success story - is it holding back EV competition?

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Looks lie Tesla learnt from being optimistic about the TM3 rollout dates, and sandbagged the hell out of the TMY 'real' rollout:

Tesla Model Y first deliveries expected in February,

More on this, or to be more exact, more nothing, as confirmation of early deliveries still can't be confirmed. The original date was 2020 Fall, but then Elon mentioned Summer in the last financial call, so Spring would be a plus, and Winter a shock.

My interest here is because the TMY should eclipse the TM3 in sales.

Tesla Model Y Delivery Rumors

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

This is a great vid, it sets out how Tesla may be causing problems for competitors, and thereby reducing production of BEV's. I'm always saying we need more companies to make more BEV's, but they face the problem of producing enough vehicles to get their costs down, whilst struggling to sell due to Tesla's presence. Hopefully they will just dive in, like VW, they have to bite the bullet eventually.

Tesla success story - is it holding back EV competition?

An interesting insight.

The problem for traditional automakers is that they can't compete with Tesla's 'No fear' business model. By the time it's 'safe' for them to do something, Tesla are already 3-5 years ahead of the game.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

An interesting insight.

The problem for traditional automakers is that they can't compete with Tesla's 'No fear' business model. By the time it's 'safe' for them to do something, Tesla are already 3-5 years ahead of the game.

It's much more to do with the simple fact that VW Toyota etc know their average selling price is $23,000 and they can't produce an EV at a profit at that price point.

Tesla proves there is some demand for flex brand expensive EVs that's a very small segment of total demand for cars

VW Golf model sells nearly 1 million units a year It's a £18,000 product
Their next best seller is the Polo which can be had for as low as £12,500

Nobody including Tesla has the ability to produce a compelling EV at that price point
And VW correctly doesn't believe that a customer buying a car for £18,000 will be willing to pay £40,000 for an Electrified car certainly not in the millions

Costs have fallen so they are starting to design and produce ID3 which will probably retail for £30,000 but they need to knock another £10,000 off and start selling golf sized vehicles for £20,000 before any grants or subsidies and an actual true £20,000 including profits and without cross subsiding from ICE sales.

Once/if they get close to that price point they will go full EV
It made no sense to go mass EV five years ago
It makes no sense today
People simply won't pay a £20,000 premium
More people will pay a £10,000 premium aka ID3
But they need the premium to fall to no more than £2,000 for the masses

Things can be made easier for them if governments would deploy millions of slow free chargers
Even if an EV owner charges exclusively from these chargers it's just £150 cost per year
And most people would still charge at home as a 50p saving isn't worth it for most people

With millions of chargers you don't need 250 mile range, 125 would be acceptable
Half the cost/weight


Also recall the leaf a compelling decent car only sold about 50,000 a year
That's just 0.5% of VW total sales. Hardly anything to get excited about
And it's not like the leaf has a huge waiting list showing there is more demand than supply
There is no waiting list and this is despite huge government EV subsidies direct and indirect

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

It's much more to do with the simple fact that VW Toyota etc know their average selling price is $23,000 and they can't produce an EV at a profit at that price point.

Tesla proves there is some demand for flex brand expensive EVs that's a very small segment of total demand for cars

VW Golf model sells nearly 1 million units a year It's a £18,000 product
Their next best seller is the Polo which can be had for as low as £12,500

Nobody including Tesla has the ability to produce a compelling EV at that price point
And VW correctly doesn't believe that a customer buying a car for £18,000 will be willing to pay £40,000 for an Electrified car certainly not in the millions

Costs have fallen so they are starting to design and produce ID3 which will probably retail for £30,000 but they need to knock another £10,000 off and start selling golf sized vehicles for £20,000 before any grants or subsidies and an actual true £20,000 including profits and without cross subsiding from ICE sales.

Once/if they get close to that price point they will go full EV
It made no sense to go mass EV five years ago
It makes no sense today
People simply won't pay a £20,000 premium
More people will pay a £10,000 premium aka ID3
But they need the premium to fall to no more than £2,000 for the masses

Things can be made easier for them if governments would deploy millions of slow free chargers
Even if an EV owner charges exclusively from these chargers it's just £150 cost per year
And most people would still charge at home as a 50p saving isn't worth it for most people

With millions of chargers you don't need 250 mile range, 125 would be acceptable
Half the cost/weight


Also recall the leaf a compelling decent car only sold about 50,000 a year
That's just 0.5% of VW total sales. Hardly anything to get excited about
And it's not like the leaf has a huge waiting list showing there is more demand than supply
There is no waiting list and this is despite huge government EV subsidies direct and indirect

So where are all the electric Audis? The A4/5/6/7/8 & all the SUVs meet your retail price criteria for an electric version. Toyota could be making a full electric Lexus but they're not.

ABrass

So much !!!!!!!! in that post from Ape.

Taking the entry price of a car line as the average price is misleading and pretty stupid. Tesla isn't alone in barely making a profit on the entry level model.

The Nissan leaf does have a waiting list and Nissan are selling every one of the 70k they made last year. There are no reports I've heard of implying they can't shift them.

In fact no one have electric cars they can't sell. The 'lack of demand' argument just doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

So where are all the electric Audis? The A4/5/6/7/8 & all the SUVs meet your retail price criteria for an electric version. Toyota could be making a full electric Lexus but they're not.

? What are you talking about?
Toyota can make an Electrified anything
The question isn't can they make it
The question is will there be demand at a price point customers are both willing and able to pay and Toyota is able to make a reasonable 10% profit. And Toyota and all the other electric companies believe the answer to this is currently No

And they are probably correct
If customers really want BEVs at BEV price points why aren't there huge waiting lines for the leaf?
How many have nissan sold? Something like 450,000 over 9 years? Aka a pathetic amount considering a popular ICE model like the Golf or corrolla sells nearly 1 million units per year. And thus is despite HUGE government subsidies towards EVs

Otherwise sane people seem to leave their wits behind when discussing BEVs

Tesla is the only decent seller (and then only proven in volumes of about 400,000 over 3 models)
And they have a flex brand Not every brand can be a flex brand
Only about 10% max 15% of cars can position themselves as flex

Tesla is more flex than Audi
Audi sells the A4 as low as £24,000
Can they electrify and sell an electric Audi A4 for £43,000
Yes I think so. But how much demand do you think there would be for said Audi?
Maybe 50,000 units a year like the leaf?
Guess what 50,000 cars per year is to the VW group? 0.5% of sales

Also another reality check
Tesla has never made 4 quarters of profit
They are still a loss making company
That might change after the next quarter
But it took over a decade to get there
And they are able to do this by charging premium premium prices
Not because they are electric
But because they are premium
And they get hundreds of millions off zero emmissions credits from other manufacturers
Something that only exists while BEVs are small scale

No other company is likely to be able to charge £19,000 more for the same car in Electrified version. A4 £24,000 Model 3 £43,000 before government grants

Simply put, general commentators think Tesla has proven everything and it's so obvious and clear electrification is the way to go. While more on depth thinking shows all that has been proven is that Tesla finds its extremely difficult to build EVs at a profit dispute charging more than twice as much for its cars (ASP ~$61,000) than does VW/Toyota for their cars (ASP ~$23,000)


PS I don't think all is lost
BEV tech will improve
We just aren't there for the mass market
The mass market is not Tesla prices
The mass market is £16,000 in the UK which is the average price of the too 10 selling cars in the UK. A model 3 before government grants is £43,000 a long long way to go

And also despite all the talk of battery Costa falling like a stone
You could get a model 3 for $35,000 for a brief time
Now it's closer to $40,000
Prices haven't fallen in 2.5 years
Nor does anyone expect them to
The other EV models we don't know their costs and cross subsidised nature

1961Nick

You're assuming that the move to EVs is going to be consumer lead ... it's not ... it's going to be driven by legislation. An example already in the pipeline is the fine the EU is planning to levy from 2021 on carmakers that exceed an average of 95g/km. Those fines are effectively increasing the cost of ICE vehicles.

How many years did it take Toyota to equip the Prius with a charging cable?? Not exactly at the cutting edge of vehicle electrification are they?

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

So much !!!!!!!! in that post from Ape.

Taking the entry price of a car line as the average price is misleading and pretty stupid. Tesla isn't alone in barely making a profit on the entry level model.

The Nissan leaf does have a waiting list and Nissan are selling every one of the 70k they made last year. There are no reports I've heard of implying they can't shift them.

In fact no one have electric cars they can't sell. The 'lack of demand' argument just doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

So you know more than the manufacturers....

These are the top selling VW cars

1: Tiguan: 861,331
2: Polo/Virtus: 855,179
3: Golf: 805,752

The polo is as low as £12,500 the golf £18,000 and the Tiguan can be had below £20,000
The golf would need a battery pack about the same kWh as the model 3 for acceptible range
The e golf has a crippled 90 miles on the motorway and costs £27,000 and there is probably cross subbing going on. Model 3 costs £43,000 and up


Best selling Audi (VW owned)
1: A4: 344,623
2: A3: 304,903
3: Q5: 298,645

A4 is as low as £24,000
Again model 3 before government grants £43,000

Best selling Skoda (VW owned(
1: Octavia: 400,210
2: Rapid: 195,270
3: Fabia: 186,213

Octavia £16,250
Model 3 £43,000

Best selling seat (VW owned)
1: Leon: 159,486
2: Ibiza: 120,287
3: Arona:110,926

Leon £13,500
Model 3 £43,000


Sure these are base trim prices
But guess what the £43,000 model 3 is also the lower end model 3 trim

You will now cry...there are cheaper EV cars than the model 3
To which I will reply all those cars from the ICE manufacturers are probably cross subbed
The model 3 price is even subbed by the ICE manufacturers having to purchase zero emmissions vehicle credits


Overall the reality of the matter is that EVs cost more than people are willing to pay for them
Except for Tesla who has managed to carve out a niche premium of premium end pricing

£24,000 Audi A4 Vs £43k SR+ M3

Polo £12,500
Golf £18,000
A4 £24,000
M3 £43,000

Somehow Tesla has managed to convince a signifcant # of people to pay a huge premium for a car. That isn't something everyone can replicate. Tesla also hasn't gone down the market with say a model 2 akin to a golf and a model 1 akin to a polo. Probably because right now the economics don't add up. So while you lot bum on VW or Toyota for not releasing a compelling cheap EV why aren't you buming on Tesla for not releasing a compelling affordable EV?

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

........So while you lot bum on VW or Toyota for not releasing a compelling cheap EV why aren't you buming on Tesla for not releasing a compelling affordable EV?

So why aren't VAG & Toyota making a £42000 vehicle to compete with the TM3. They both have premium brands that can justify that price tag?

Comparing even the base model 3 with the cheapest golf/polo etc is meaningless because the Tesla is fully specced & in a completely different stratosphere when it comes to performance.