Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

shinytop

I think there will be a market for ICE vehicles past 2030.  Some people think that everywhere in the world is like this:



when a lot of it is acually still like this:



I know most of the world's population has access to electricity but how many have access to enough of it to charge an EV?

I think nearly all of the world's population can access a can of petrol.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Does anything that involves combustion not create NOx nasties though?

I thought we were discussing what cars Toyota and others might be manufacturing and customers buying in 2030 and 2035 not pollution. Or should we move on to discuss the environmental aspects of mining minerals for batteries? That was a rhetorical question btw. 

I thought we were discussing whether BEV was the only route to using RE to minimise transport emissions rather than for example spill H2 plus CCS reformulation into liquid fuels for ICE hence my concern that the latter may still lead to locally harmful emissions even if it is just as effective in terms of GHG mitigation?

No, we were discussing the article from Electrek about Toyota’s failure to give an end date for gasoline vehicle production. I suggested reasons why perhaps Toyota may not want to commit at this stage, primarily because there may remain markets still open to the sale of ICE vehicles and we don’t know just how things will work out in 14 years time. I expanded on the synthetic fuels point because it seemed someone had confused it with HFC. 

Martyn1981

michaels said:

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Does anything that involves combustion not create NOx nasties though?

I thought we were discussing what cars Toyota and others might be manufacturing and customers buying in 2030 and 2035 not pollution. Or should we move on to discuss the environmental aspects of mining minerals for batteries? That was a rhetorical question btw. 

I thought we were discussing whether BEV was the only route to using RE to minimise transport emissions rather than for example spill H2 plus CCS reformulation into liquid fuels for ICE hence my concern that the latter may still lead to locally harmful emissions even if it is just as effective in terms of GHG mitigation?

Yep, the move to BEV's makes sense since they are the better product, but because of the GHG emissions, and local air pollution emissions (green and ethical), they are also being promoted via additional carrot (eg subsidies) and stick (emissions rules/tagets, local area restrictions, and potential outright bans). So the demand in 2030 will have to reflect this, and once sales drop low enough, then legislation to ban further sales will be easy to pass (possibly with some small specialised exemptions?) After the dieselgate scandal we saw a large drop in diesel sales just from the threat of legislation, without even a need for signigificant punitive rule changes (at the time).

Looking at Ken's prediction for 10% or less ICEV sales by 2030, clearly shows that Toyota has bet wrong on HEV's and PHEV's, and ICE sales higher than the very bottom of 'upto 50%' are simply ridiculous, even this far out, despite Toyota's targets being in line with legislation ...... which hasn't even arrived yet.

Sorry to harp on about disruption so much, but it's so exciting to see it happen, despite being told (and believing the theory) it would/should happen.

Going back a few years, seeing EV sales rise (roughly) from 1% to 2% to 4% did promise a disruption, v's a linear growth of 1%, 2%, 3% ....... but to actually watch it happen has been so exciting.

The next big thing to watch for now is the Osborne Effect. Buying a basic Nokia during the disruption from smart phones would have been an easy decision - low cost, short time period before changing again, no punitive legislation, etc etc, but how much impact will the Osborne Effect have on car sales when the capital outlay is so high, depreciation could be horrendous, costs may rise as production falls, running costs higher especially for higher mileage which new cars are often used for, and the fear/threat of punitive legislation perhaps on city entry, times, parking etc..

I'm already shocked (clearly), but I expect 2025 to be even more shocking, which may not seem to make sense, but reflects the fact that my human brain, designed for a linear life, like everyone else's, has trouble comprehending amd processing exponential growth.

QrizB

Martyn1981 said:

Looking at Ken's prediction for 10% or less ICEV sales by 2030, clearly shows that Toyota has bet wrong on HEV's and PHEV's, and ICE sales higher than the very bottom of 'upto 50%' are simply ridiculous, even this far out, despite Toyota's targets being in line with legislation ...... which hasn't even arrived yet.

Fundamentally, whether Toyota's predictions of the future vehicle market are accurate or not should be a worry for Toyota, not for the rest of us. It will be interesting to see how the next 2-3 years pan out and what happens to EV residuals when 2021 models hit the used market.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Does anything that involves combustion not create NOx nasties though?

I thought we were discussing what cars Toyota and others might be manufacturing and customers buying in 2030 and 2035 not pollution. Or should we move on to discuss the environmental aspects of mining minerals for batteries? That was a rhetorical question btw. 

I thought we were discussing whether BEV was the only route to using RE to minimise transport emissions rather than for example spill H2 plus CCS reformulation into liquid fuels for ICE hence my concern that the latter may still lead to locally harmful emissions even if it is just as effective in terms of GHG mitigation?

Yep, the move to BEV's makes sense since they are the better product, but because of the GHG emissions, and local air pollution emissions (green and ethical), they are also being promoted via additional carrot (eg subsidies) and stick (emissions rules/tagets, local area restrictions, and potential outright bans). So the demand in 2030 will have to reflect this, and once sales drop low enough, then legislation to ban further sales will be easy to pass (possibly with some small specialised exemptions?) After the dieselgate scandal we saw a large drop in diesel sales just from the threat of legislation, without even a need for signigificant punitive rule changes (at the time).

Looking at Ken's prediction for 10% or less ICEV sales by 2030, clearly shows that Toyota has bet wrong on HEV's and PHEV's, and ICE sales higher than the very bottom of 'upto 50%' are simply ridiculous, even this far out, despite Toyota's targets being in line with legislation ...... which hasn't even arrived yet.

Sorry to harp on about disruption so much, but it's so exciting to see it happen, despite being told (and believing the theory) it would/should happen.

Going back a few years, seeing EV sales rise (roughly) from 1% to 2% to 4% did promise a disruption, v's a linear growth of 1%, 2%, 3% ....... but to actually watch it happen has been so exciting.

The next big thing to watch for now is the Osborne Effect. Buying a basic Nokia during the disruption from smart phones would have been an easy decision - low cost, short time period before changing again, no punitive legislation, etc etc, but how much impact will the Osborne Effect have on car sales when the capital outlay is so high, depreciation could be horrendous, costs may rise as production falls, running costs higher especially for higher mileage which new cars are often used for, and the fear/threat of punitive legislation perhaps on city entry, times, parking etc..

I'm already shocked (clearly), but I expect 2025 to be even more shocking, which may not seem to make sense, but reflects the fact that my human brain, designed for a linear life, like everyone else's, has trouble comprehending amd processing exponential growth.

Just to clarify, my prediction of 5-10% for the UK market was what would happen if EVs market share continued to follow the S curve, not necessarily what will happen, as unlike CDs or smart phones, the EV market is being driven by sticks and carrots, not purel6 market forces. Also unlike CDs and smart phones EVs actually offer little different to ICE cars for most users. (They both fulfil the same function of moving people from A to B and the EV doesn’t offer a huge step forward in convenience  or functionality compared to the ICEV, nor does it offer any significant cost saving for those who will have to use public chargers.)

The rapid acceleration of EV sales from 2020 has been driven by the tax incentives offered to companies and individuals under SS schemes which has distorted the market. Within 3years, (a typical new car buying cycle) those who might benefit from the schemes will be likely to be taking advantage of them, hence my belief we will hit 50% of new car sales being EVs by 2025 in the UK.

Those buyers will largely continue to replace their cars with EVs in subsequent cycles so that 50% is locked in and gradually more ICE drivers will swing to EVs as they become the norm. There is however likely to be a more difficult segment to reach and that is those without access to home charging facilities and people (in older generations perhaps like my wife) who just don’t want to change. Remember there are still people who buy basic (non smart) phones. It is interesting (and unsurprising) that smart phone ownership is higher in developed economies than less developed ones. The Netherlands, Sweden Germany, UK have much higher proportions of smart phone ownership (among those who own phones) than the likes of Hungary, Poland, Greece and Russia. Why will EVs be any different, unless of course legislation dictates it should be.

I suspect that in the UK the true demand for new EVs will be more like 70% of the new car market by 2030 because of firstly inertia (old habits die hard and we like what we know) and the EV user experience (i.e. charging) being a distinct disadvantage for those who don’t have access to home charging. From 2030 of course ICE sales will be zero because the Government says so and there may be a pick up in PHEV sales. 

The failure of the smart phone to hit anywhere near 100% penetration in less developed markets suggests that Western manufacturers (and the west based EV orientated commentators) may have got it wrong about the extent to which EVs will dominate the world outside Europe and the US/Canada. 

If experience with smart phones is anything to go by then in markets like Hungary, Poland, Greece and Russia, ICEVs will still sell well as they will in India, China, Africa, Latin America etc until of course local governments ban them. In 2030 and even 2035 there will still be a huge market for ICEs but just not in Europe. Probably half the world will still be buying ICEVs in 2035 and even in 2050where they are still allowed. 

I still think Toyota and indeed the other Japanese manufacturers are wise from a commercial point of view not to rush into any hasty commitments just for good PR.

JKenH

shinytop said:

I think there will be a market for ICE vehicles past 2030.  Some people think that everywhere in the world is like this:



when a lot of it is acually still like this:



I know most of the world's population has access to electricity but how many have access to enough of it to charge an EV?

I think nearly all of the world's population can access a can of petrol.

Most people restrict their view of the world to what they can see out of their own tiny window. I think the photos are a great example of why we need to look at the rest of the world differently to Europe and the US/Canada and Australasia.  It is so frustrating that everything we see in the media about what the world should do is written from a developed western, dare I say progressive, perspective. 

gefnew

Climate change: Is ‘blue hydrogen’ Japan’s answer to coal?

Toyota involved in this. A bit of a read

EricMears

JKenH said:

What has driven EV take up? A lot of solar panel owners have bought EVs to use up their spare generation. 

Most of them will have been bitterly disappointed !

'Spare generation' on a typical house installation is seldom more than a couple of kW - or barely enough to be able to use a 'granny lead'.  On a good day you might be able to put 10kWh into your EV (perhaps 40 miles worth) but only if you don't use the car that day;  most days are far less productive than that !

I find it far more convenient to use my 'spare generation' for running major appliances and charge the car at 5.5ppu for 5 hours overnight (giving 35kWh or 100+ miles for a couple of pounds).

Martyn1981

Cracking numbers for the UK BEV market too in Nov, getting close to 1/5th of all sales, and double Nov 2020.

UK Plugin EV Share Hits Record 28.1% In November & Diesel At Just 5%

The UK’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles take 28.1 % share in November, almost double the 15.9% share of a year ago. Full battery electrics, alone taking 18.8% share, were over two thirds of all plugins, and more than doubled their share, year-on-year. Diesels continued their precipitous decline, seeing just 5.1% share from 14.0% year-on-year. The overall auto market, at 115,706 sales, was fractionally up from November 2020, but 31.3% down from the pre-pandemic seasonal average.

November’s combined plugin result of 28.1% comprised a record share of 18.8% for full battery electrics (BEVs, more than twice their 9.1% share of a year ago), and 9.3% share for plugin hybrids. This continues a strong shift towards BEVs from the more even weighting in H1 2021.

The cumulative plugin share for 2021 now stands at 17.5%, up from 9.6% by this point in 2020. The trailing quarter’s plugin share stands at 23.7%, with 16.1% BEVs alone.

JKenH

Battery EV uptake doubles, but new car market remains well adrift of pre-pandemic levels

Plug-in vehicle demand continued to grow, however, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) equating to 18.8% of the market, with 21,726 units – more than double compared with November 2020 – while plug-in hybrid vehicles’ (PHEVs) share grew to 9.3% or 10,796 units.

Year-to-date, 1,538,585 new cars have been registered, of which 17.5% have been BEVs or PHEVs, meaning one in six new cars is capable of being plugged in. 

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2021/12/battery-ev-uptake-doubles-but-new-car-market-remains-well-adrift-of-pre-pandemic-levels/

Edit: Apologies for the duplication, I must have been typing while Mart was posting.