Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

JKenH

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Martyn1981

Well this caught me by surprise. Well done Renault, a very brave, positive and constructive move. Perhaps they can rent some to Toyota for courtesy cars too?

[Note, the article says all Renault courtesy cars, but goes on to state 15 dealerships (I assume there are more than 15), so there may be some confusion/rollout.]

100% Of Renault Courtesy Cars (Loaners) In England & Wales Now 100% Electric

How do you get people to go electric? You get their buttocks in a driver’s seat of an electric car and ask them to step on the “go” pedal. This is widely known to be the #1 way to convert someone to electric driving, whether they come in with a lot of interest or a lot of trepidation. With that in mind, I have to say that I’m thoroughly impressed with what Renault Group is now doing in England & Wales.

In short, every single Renault courtesy car (what we call a “loaner” in the US) in England and Wales is now a fully electric Renault Zoe E-Tech. That should sell a lot more electric cars. …

Furthermore, that tells customers, “hey, we really stand behind electric cars, and we want you to know this is no joke to us.” Additionally, just looking at the pounds and pence, electric cars have much lower operational costs, so maybe this is also about a simple calculation telling management that they’d save a lot of money using electric courtesy cars instead of fossil fuel powered ones.

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

Ectophile said:

And best of luck to them selling upto 50% of vehicles in 2030 that still have an ICE.

If it's selling Hiluxes and Land Cruisers into developing countries, then they may have a market for many years to come

The comment from Martyn, and the article he quoted, related specifically to the Western European market:

This “goal” will be preceded by a sales mix of at least 50% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in Western Europe by 2030.

Yes, thanks QrizB.

I'm just postulating now for fun, but looking at the German figures for Nov of 20% BEV's, and Dec could be higher, then a simple 50% annual growth would take BEV's to 100% by the end of 2025.

Now, I'm not suggesting that's what will happen, supply simply won't be available, I'd assume, and even the Osborne Effect won't push ICEV's down to zero that quickly (another route to 100%, but of a smaller market). But it does make a mockery of any hopes Toyota has of selling upto 50% ICEV vehicles in 2030, even including PHEV's, which today are questionable on a TCO basis v's BEV's and ICEV's.

Obviously 'upto 50%' does allow for a much lower outcome, but I think it's clear from Toyota's anti-EV policy around the World, which way they are betting (begging and praying now).

Purely for fun, but my calculated, balanced, wet finger in the air  ...... wild bet, is that BEV's will reach, and probably exceed 50% by 2025, and I think orrery is right that this will be market led now, since Europe seems to have passed the crucial (5%-10%) annual sales point where the new, and better disruptive technology then takes off. 50% BEV sales in 2025 would require sales to grow annually by about 25% (in Germany's case), even if total sales don't fall further, and I think that's possible, easily possible?

Anyone else want to guess, and it is just fun guesses, as the disruption looks to have 'landed' opening up exponential growth, boosted by falling overall sales, or alternatively lessend by post chip shortage pent up demand rushing to buy ICE's, or lack of supply (BEV's) could mean linear growth ...... and every other possibility inbetween?   

2nd_time_buyer

Looking back it is amazing to think CRT TVs were ever cheaper than LCD TVs. My gut feeling is that EVs will be a step change cheaper once supply catches up with demand.

JKenH

What has driven EV take up? A lot of solar panel owners have bought EVs to use up their spare generation. An even larger number have them under salary sacrifice schemes, I read that somewhere that around two thirds of UK EV purchases were by companies. I just wonder how many EVs are second cars in affluent homes or even primary cars with an ICE for longer trips. 

Over the next 3 years I would expect more people to acquire cars under SS schemes as they come to replace their  existing cars bought on PCP so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we are at 50% of new cars sold being electric by 2025. 

It might slow down after that, as in fact any lover of statistics and the ‘S’curve would expect, as by then the majority of the non EV market will be people who don’t have access to salary sacrifice or home charging and single car families, so by 2030 there will still be some buyers who might prefer an ICE. How many we just don’t know. The S curve might predict somewhere around 5-10% ICE demand by2030 given where we were in 2020. You can’t just rely on statistics as while they  tell us a lot about trends you also have to look behind the statistics to understand what is going on - such as the influence of new drivers as we have seen with SS schemes.

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

100% Of Renault Courtesy Cars (Loaners) In England & Wales Now 100% Electric

So, this sounds a good idea in principal.  I wonder whether it could back-fire...

Some courtesy cars are lent out and returned in the day for regular service events - in most of these cases, so long as the car was fully charged when given out, the day is really just an extended test-drive.

If there is an EV lent out as courtesy car for an extended period - more complex mechanical repair or body work - then is there a possible that a user without home charging and without familiarity of the public charging process finds the whole arrangement a chore and is pushed further towards ICE?

michaels

JKenH said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Does anything that involves combustion not create NOx nasties though?

orrery

JKenH said:

I just wonder how many EVs are second cars in affluent homes or even primary cars with an ICE for longer trips.

...

...so by 2030 there will still be some buyers who might prefer an ICE. How many we just don’t know.

I've been driving EVs since 2014, as a second car. It didn't take long to be the car of preference for both of us. Last year I looked at my ICE and saw that I was doing 1,500 mile each year - and I couldn't justify keeping it, so it went. The bottom line here is that EVs are better.

There will be a market for ICE vehicles (just maybe) such as long distance couriers, lorries and coaches but maybe these will be hydrogen. Petrol will be become expensive as more forecourts close, and that will drive more to EV.

I agree with your projections - but the pundits have a history of underestimating change. Kodak went under just 10 years after the first digital camera - and they invented it.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Does anything that involves combustion not create NOx nasties though?

I thought we were discussing what cars Toyota and others might be manufacturing and customers buying in 2030 and 2035 not pollution. Or should we move on to discuss the environmental aspects of mining minerals for batteries? That was a rhetorical question btw. 

michaels

JKenH said:

michaels said:

JKenH said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Does anything that involves combustion not create NOx nasties though?

I thought we were discussing what cars Toyota and others might be manufacturing and customers buying in 2030 and 2035 not pollution. Or should we move on to discuss the environmental aspects of mining minerals for batteries? That was a rhetorical question btw. 

I thought we were discussing whether BEV was the only route to using RE to minimise transport emissions rather than for example spill H2 plus CCS reformulation into liquid fuels for ICE hence my concern that the latter may still lead to locally harmful emissions even if it is just as effective in terms of GHG mitigation?