Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

JKenH

Used car prices see five years of growth in just six months, according to new report

November saw the 20th consecutive month of used car price growth, increasing by a record 28.6 per cent on a year-on-year and like-for-like basis to reach an average price of £17,366.

Very high levels of demand coupled with low levels of supply were behind the ‘exceptional’ price growth, said Auto Trader.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-prices-see-five-years-of-growth-in-just-six-months-according-to-new-report/245730

https://0a411afb0c598242cc95-1df470064133d6bc5c471837468f475c.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/publish/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/November-make-and-model-price-movements-all-fuel-types-via-Auto-Trader.jpg

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Cracking numbers for the UK BEV market too in Nov, getting close to 1/5th of all sales, and double Nov 2020.

UK Plugin EV Share Hits Record 28.1% In November & Diesel At Just 5%

The UK’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles take 28.1 % share in November, almost double the 15.9% share of a year ago. Full battery electrics, alone taking 18.8% share, were over two thirds of all plugins, and more than doubled their share, year-on-year. Diesels continued their precipitous decline, seeing just 5.1% share from 14.0% year-on-year. The overall auto market, at 115,706 sales, was fractionally up from November 2020, but 31.3% down from the pre-pandemic seasonal average.

November’s combined plugin result of 28.1% comprised a record share of 18.8% for full battery electrics (BEVs, more than twice their 9.1% share of a year ago), and 9.3% share for plugin hybrids. This continues a strong shift towards BEVs from the more even weighting in H1 2021.

The cumulative plugin share for 2021 now stands at 17.5%, up from 9.6% by this point in 2020. The trailing quarter’s plugin share stands at 23.7%, with 16.1% BEVs alone.

I think numbers are slightly flattered as scarce chips seem to be being prioritised towards EVs so the 30% of sales that would have happened if there had been enough supply probably would have been predominantly ICE vehicles (although that also is more about supply than demand).  EVs at the affordable end of the market also remain in short supply and at this price point the EV purchase price premium is very significant.  If we start seeing (Chinese?) EVs in the £10-15k bracket then things may get very interesting indeed.

Edit: Interesting large number of 'other import' ie Teslas in November for a non end of quarter month

Yeah, I'd suspect the numbers are slightly flattered, as you suggest, but personally (just my opinion) I don't think all of the reduction is simply down to chips now, and in fact UK sales fell in 2017, 2018, and 2019 prior to Covid and chip issues. So there could be other factors, such as ICEV's lasting longer / being more reliable, perhaps a small move away from car ownership too. I kinda hope it's partly the start of the Osborne Effect, but it's too soon to call. Lots of possibilities in the mix, and I wonder how 2022 will evolve now that the chip shortage may start to lessen but production probably won't get back to pre-pandemic levels till 2023.

Yeah, the Tesla numbers for Nov do seem high, and this has happened in some other European countries / results too. It might mean a monster quarter for them, or deliveries spread out more evenly, perhaps with a reduced 'craziness' in Dec, as per Elon's leaked e-mail?

2nd_time_buyer

I think the chip shortage is largely a red herring. 

There are apparent shortages all around the economy at the moment. In part this is suppliers exploiting monopolies. However, it can also fit into the hands of retailers who can use it as an excuse to raise prices and reduce staff. These effects pervade even after the supply "shortage" disappears e.g. as has been the case for petrol.

In the case of cars. This has been an opportunity to raise prices and profit margins on ICE cars, that are on the way out. To me it seems similar to what has happened to gas prices - also an anachronistic resource. This has enabled them to shift resources to building their market in the BEV sector but also conditioning people to spending a larger amount on a new car. I know people now who are spending £40k on a new BEV car who would never previously have considered spending more than £20k.

Martyn1981

michaels said:

EVs at the affordable end of the market also remain in short supply and at this price point the EV purchase price premium is very significant.  If we start seeing (Chinese?) EVs in the £10-15k bracket then things may get very interesting indeed.

Hope you don't mind some musings, but this part of your post raises some issues that have been spinning around in my head for the last week or so.

Take none of this as fact, or even rational projections, it's just my gut interpretation of what I've seen recently across perhaps a dozen+ videos I've watched from You tube channels who have been pretty much ahead of the news and industry changes with their predictions / projections for years.

The gist (for me) is that they are walking back some of their optimism about China/Chinese BEV's, not for long, just that the invasion may be a little further off. Whilst some great vehicles are coming out, such as the MG options, and China seems to have adopted the 'computer on wheels' approach which may be where BEV's are going, most of the Chinese models are not 'good enough' (yet) to satisfy European and US range and safety requirements. Many of the small Chinese cars, wouldn't actually get 'car' classification in Europe and the US, being more low range, low speed, neighbourghood vehicles, and costs/prices would rise quite a bit to bring them up to spec.

Please don't think I'm being negative about Chinese BEV's. They have loads of decent vehicles that can meet, or be upgraded to meet legislative requirements (BYD look extremely interesting), but they also have a lot of demand in China too, so the Chinese invasion (which I too anticipate) may be delayed, or be at a slower rate.

Still just pondering out loud, but another factor could be alliances with Chinese manufacturers. Toyota is now to sell rebadged BYD's in China, under their joint venture BYD Toyota EV Tech Co, which could lead to them selling such vehicles elsewhere, perhaps? Whilst the vehicles are planned for China only so far, partnering with BYD, who I think are now valued around the same as Toyota, is a smart move, opening another door into the BEV World.

As I said, just some thoughts of mine. Take none of it seriously. 2022 will be truly educational, and we should be in a much better position in ~12 months to guesstimate where the auto industry is going, or rather, how fast the BEV transition will be.

Fun times ahead.

Martyn1981

Looks like positive news for VWG and BEV's in general ..... I think?

Diess To Stay On As Volkswagen CEO, Brandstaeter Gets Larger Role

It took nearly 10 weeks of intense negotiations, but the dust-up over Herbert Diess’ remarks that up to 30,000 production jobs could be lost as the company transitions to building battery-electric cars has been settled. An unnamed source tells Reuters,“It is going in the direction that the dispute will be settled and Diess will remain CEO,” adding that VW brand chief Ralf Brandstaetter is slated to join the management board, while Diess will focus on strategy.

Automotive News Europe adds that Brandstaetter will take over responsibility for the mass market brand group that includes Volkswagen, Skoda, and SEAT. Up until this point, Diess was in charge of Skoda and SEAT while Brandstaetter was head of the Volkswagen brand. The German press is reporting that the powerful Porsche and Piech families backed Diess. Together, they control 53% of Volkswagen. It is understood that the works council, which represents workers at the company and has several seats on the supervisory board, wanted to force Diess out and perhaps replace him with disgraced former CEO Martin Winterkorn.

Martyn1981

michaels said:

JKenH said:

orrery said:

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.

I didn’t mention fuel cells. I was actually talking about carbon neutral synthetic fuels which are a straight replacement for oil derived fuels made from atmospheric carbon and hydrogen and can be stored and distributed in the same way as petrol and diesel. 

This article from Bosch explains what they are.

https://www.bosch.com/stories/synthetic-fuels/

They will need a supply of hydrogen but with all the very cheap solar that is envisioned electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen may become commercially viable. Bosch suggest a figure of between €1.0 and €1.4/ litre maybe achievable. I am not saying this will happen but am simply keeping an open mind which is how we make progress. The ICE lobby derided the prospects of EVs 15 years ago and now EV supporters are deriding any alternative to EVs. Just because something doesn’t seem to be commercially viable now doesn’t mean the economics won’t change in 10-15 years time.

Porsche have been working on this for some time and already have a pilot plant. I believe it costs them somewhere in the region of $10 to make a litre now but suggested it may fall to around $2. 

As carbon capture becomes more common we do have to dispose of that carbon and with surplus solar or even wind derived electricity it is a good environmental solution. It many parts of the world it will be a long while before EVs become zero carbon so I can’t see why anyone would want to dismiss it.

I have an EV and very much enjoy driving it. It is far superior to an ICE car in that respect and for local use filling it with electricity at home is far more convenient than standing out in the cold and rain holding a petrol pump. 

The mistake most of us make is assuming that because we think something is the best thing since sliced bread others will as well. My wife is aware of all the benefits of an EV but would not want one as an alternative to her petrol car (which she hardly uses). Her user experience is the same as mine yet for her the inconvenience of public charging outweighs the benefits of driving/owning an EV. As I have commented many times the charging experience for me has deteriorated as more EVs have hit the road. As new EVs are currently being sold the ratio of cars to chargers is increasing. While the ratio in 2019 was around one in 11(IRIC) in 2021 only one charger was added for every 50 or so new EVs. 

Does anything that involves combustion not create NOx nasties though?

Timely news on synth fuels and NOx. Yes you're right, NOx is just as bad, but PM's did drop. So might as well put the RE energy into BEV's or H2 into HFCV's.

I like the description of synth fuels as a FF trojan horse, it reminds me of 'clean coal', 'FF CCS' and 'blue hydrogen'.

Magic green fuels: Why synthetic fuels in cars will not solve Europe’s pollution problems

• No difference in NOx emissions were observed for any of the e-fuels tested either on the lab or on road tests compared to today’s petrol fuel. This means that e-fuels emit the same amount of NOx pollution as fossil fuels today, so the use of e-petrol in cars will have little impact on NOx emissions which are at the heart of toxic NO2 pollution across Europe’s cities.

• A substantial decrease in particle emissions was observed on all tests. The number of particle emissions (PN) larger than 10 nm decreased by 97% on the lab test, and by 81-86% on the RDE test cycle. While this was a significant improvement compared to the fossil fuel tested – and is many times below the legal limit – the very large number of particles emitted out of the exhaust in the first place meant that particle pollution was far from eliminated. Even with the use of 100% e-petrol blends, at least 2.2 billion particles were still released for every kilometer driven. There was no difference observed in particle mass (PM) emissions.

• Toxic carbon monoxide emissions were much higher with the e-petrol blends tested. Emissions were up to almost 3 times higher on the lab WLTC test and 1.2-1.5 times higher on the RDE test compared to fossil fuel. The largest increase in emissions occurred when the engine was first switched on, which happens often in towns and cities.

• Hydrocarbon emissions, i.e harmful chemical compounds made of hydrogen and carbon, decreased by 23-40% on the WLTC test but no difference was observed on the RDE test due to low emissions for all fuels. Emissions of dangerous but not yet regulated aldehydes – acetaldehyde and formaldehyde – decreased with the use of e-fuels when the engine was first switched on, but no significant difference was seen on the test overall.

• Ammonia emissions of two e-petrol blends roughly doubled on the RDE test, with emissions particularly increasing after the engine is first switched on (cold start) which frequently occurs in towns and cities. These results indicate that some e-petrol blends may cause an increase in ammonia emissions which is a precursor to PM2.5 pollution.

JKenH

The Osborne effect

Wikipedia defines the Osborne effect:

The Osborne effect is a social phenomenon of customers canceling or deferring orders for the current, soon-to-be-obsolete product as an unexpected drawback of a company's announcing a future product prematurely. [my bold]

I am not sure this applies to the current fall off in ICE sales as the key point is the announcement of a new product prematurely. If anything electric cars themselves might be more likely to suffer from the Osborne effect as new models with bigger batteries are rolled out. I think the Leaf 30kWh might have been a victim of this as buyers waited for the 40kWh and then the 40kWh itself was a victim as buyers waited for the likes of the Kona and a-Niro which had almost twice the range. 

I don’t doubt that some ICE sales were lost as customers waited for the first Tesla Model 3s but that was then and this is now. Possibly some pick up truck buyers in the US have deferred purchases because of the arrival of the Cybertruck in 2022/3. But I don’t see it as a major factor in the UK

There are now so many electric cars to choose from that if you actually are considering an electric car now you will buy one now. If you do decide to delay your purchase because a 300 mile range is not enough and hold out for a 400 mile range car which might arrive in a couple of years time then it is EV sales that are affected not ICE. 

I don’t see many people who are considering buying a new ICE car now holding off because new ICE cars will stop production in 9 years time. If you want an ICE car now you will buy one. In fact we may see just the opposite of the Osborne effect as we did with tungsten light bulbs, where people who actually think the “obsolete” product is better go out and buy one while they can as they won’t be able to buy them in the future. ICE sales that might have occurred in the later years off the decade or post 2030 bring forward their purchase while the ICE they want is still available. 

I am not saying ICE sales won’t be/aren’t being cannabilised by EV sales - they are/will but that isn’t the Osborne effect. People are deciding to buy an EV now because they are already available and perceive them to be better/cheaper. If they feel EVs aren’t yet quite good enough they are still buying ICE cars. I think something like 90% of private new car sales were on some form of finance, the majority PCP. As these deals come to an end people are making decisions to replace their cars based on what is available now.

Edit: just as an example Lotus have announced they are going electric. Hardcore enthusiasts (not poseurs) will no doubt be lining up to snap up the last models off the production line. 

Martyn1981

Hope I haven't confused anyone by talking about the Osborne Effect and news articles referring to it.

This recent article is quite a good one, and updates one from 2019 talking about the theory/possible impact of the Osborne Effect on the global car market.

The idea is actually quite simple and intuative. Basically suggesting that many folk who are ready to purchase a new car, and accept/feel that BEV's are the superior product, will not immediately be able to buy a BEV due to many factors such as the cost of the vehicle, supply limitations at that point in time etc.. Those people might then put off buying a new vehicle (despite the available ICE options) until they are able to purchase the newer technology.

Anyway, that's the theory, and the image in both articles, that I've posted before, lays out the potential nicely, and the copied text explains what can happen. Hope this helps, and of course time will tell.

When Do Fossil Fuel Car Sales Collapse?

This is one of those topics that seems to come up more and more frequently. Maarten Vinkhuyzen was ahead of the curve (as usual) and wrote the article “The Osborne Effect On The Auto Industry” in February 2019. Here’s a key graphic from that excellent piece (which you are required to read if you haven’t yet):

There are three key elements of this. One is that growth of a disruptive technology is not linear. It is much faster than a normal person, or even a professional forecaster, typically presumes it will be in the early years of the disruption. The second is that, conversely, the decline of the outgoing technology is rapid as well, with the market collapsing like when you step on the edge of a little sand cliff on the beach and slip down rapidly. The third point, one that is almost always ignored, is that the transition period can also lead to an overall market drop/dent for a while.

The third point can be a bit confusing, and it’s related to the title of this article. It may seem that the growth of the new tech should rise perfectly to match the decline of the old tech, but that’s not how the world works (or how the other planets some of you plan to move to will work). Once the new, better, cheaper technology is in the eyesight of much of the population, people start to realize that there’s no point in getting the old technology. They may not be ready to get the new tech just yet — because of money, product delays, high availability and relatively low supply, or timing — but they most logically will presume that it’s not wise (or fun) to buy an outgoing product that can’t match the hot new thing. The mismatch between the consumer desire to get a new product and the ability of the industry to produce that new product as much as consumers want it leads to a big dent in the market. Or, on the flip side, lack of interest in the old product, while the producer is still wanting to sell it, leads to a market collapse of some scale.

CKhalvashi

JKenH said:

Used car prices see five years of growth in just six months, according to new report

November saw the 20th consecutive month of used car price growth, increasing by a record 28.6 per cent on a year-on-year and like-for-like basis to reach an average price of £17,366.

Very high levels of demand coupled with low levels of supply were behind the ‘exceptional’ price growth, said Auto Trader.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-prices-see-five-years-of-growth-in-just-six-months-according-to-new-report/245730

https://0a411afb0c598242cc95-1df470064133d6bc5c471837468f475c.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/publish/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/November-make-and-model-price-movements-all-fuel-types-via-Auto-Trader.jpg

Now is probably the time to change the Yeti then

Drove it this morning for the first time in months, strange to not be in a HEV/BEV (I've had a Hybrid Tuscon the last time I rented a car abroad) 162000 miles though and it's still a really strong car, but it's probably not worth much in any event,,,,.

orrery

2nd_time_buyer said:

I think the chip shortage is largely a red herring.

I don't think that those new car buyers, who are having to take delivery of cars with options missed off due to chip shortages, are likely to agree. The manufacturers are even declining to refund the cost of the options that are missing, saying: You can cancel if you want but we can sell your new car to someone else with no issue.

I ordered a new car in October and had to sign a disclaimer on delivery dates due to known chip supply issues - and the quoted date is 1st June 2022.

It doesn't sound very red or herring-like to me.