Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

QrizB

JKenH said:

The outlook for synthetic fuels is not that promising it seems, the main issue being the availability of cheap renewable energy which looks likely to prevent production on a scale that makes it viable even for aviation fuel. The second big issue is the capital cost for the plant to produce the sheer volumes that would be required.

You can buy synthetic petrol today, much as you can buy synthetic engine oil - but in both cases it's synthesised from fossil fuels, not from electricity.

Mostly it's sold for garden and light forestry equipment, where the operators will be working in the fumes. Also good for petrol-fuelled camping stoves. Aspen 4 is the brand I'm familiar with but there may be others:
https://www.aspenfuels.com/products/alla/aspen-4/

... and at £6/litre I'm not going to fill my Panda with it! I could probably afford it for my motorbike, mind:
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/234224972068

Edit: cheaper if you collect, only £4/litre:
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/192894392101

2nd_time_buyer

I tell you what, reading these threads makes me realize what a time it is to be alive. The next few years are set to be a seismic shift in energy production and transport not seen since the industrial revolution. Perhaps this will be the environmental revolution.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

Got to admit that I also think that the chip shortage is being used to hide a part of the drop in sales, but that's my gut feeling, so I can't back it up.

I did hear a good argument that the chips used in BEV's may be of a newer and more specialised design, v's older chips used in ICEV's and perhaps more common due to the purchase of electrical components from parts suppliers, rather than an integrated internal supply line. This theory went on to suggest that having shutdown some of the older lines (when the legacy companies reduced orders) to concentrate on newer chips for computers, BEV's etc, some manufacturers may be reluctant to build the older ones if they are unable to produce all of the types at the same time.

That argument sounded reasonable to me, but I know nothing, and I can also see lots of holes in it, so it may have legs or be complete BS.

TBH even if ICEV demand has fallen off a bit more, it's probably a good thing to hide that difference behind a chip shortage (or anything else) since ironically, it's quite important that faith in ICEV's doesn't collapse yet, since BEV supply can't ramp fast enough, and a collapse in ICEV sales (at the extreme end of the possibilities) would remove the revenue stream needed by the legacy companies to fund the BEV transition. Quite ironic really, and takes us back to the Osborne Effect, where the specs put out by Osborne Computers for their future Osborne 2 model were too good, and sales of their Osborne 1 collapsed as people put off buying and decided to wait for the superior product instead, this decimated Osborne's revenue stream and they went bust.

There are though some of us who are happy to wait until the new model comes out to snap up a bargain on the older one. I have never bought the latest iPhone and when I found a home cinema amplifier of the spec I wanted I waited until the new model came out (Marantz do yearly upgrades) and got the old one for 30% less. (95% of the spec for 70% of the price). 

You might be right in paragrapgh 1 as apparently you can walk into a Hyundai dealer and buy an Ionic EV without any waiting.

JKenH

2nd_time_buyer said:

I tell you what, reading these threads makes me realize what a time it is to be alive.

No, the best years are behind us. Everybody nowadays is worrying about something or is a victim of some injustice. Give me the rock and roll years any day. I am a baby boomer - we had it all.  I do genuinely feel sorry for Generation Z.

JKenH

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

The outlook for synthetic fuels is not that promising it seems, the main issue being the availability of cheap renewable energy which looks likely to prevent production on a scale that makes it viable even for aviation fuel. The second big issue is the capital cost for the plant to produce the sheer volumes that would be required.

You can buy synthetic petrol today, much as you can buy synthetic engine oil - but in both cases it's synthesised from fossil fuels, not from electricity.

Mostly it's sold for garden and light forestry equipment, where the operators will be working in the fumes. Also good for petrol-fuelled camping stoves. Aspen 4 is the brand I'm familiar with but there may be others:
https://www.aspenfuels.com/products/alla/aspen-4/

... and at £6/litre I'm not going to fill my Panda with it! I could probably afford it for my motorbike, mind:
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/234224972068

Edit: cheaper if you collect, only £4/litre:
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/192894392101

I prefer this for my 2 stroke chain saws. Never had any starting problems since I switched to it. At £20 for 5 litres it’s expensive but worth it. 5 year shelf life!

https://www.stihl.co.uk/STIHL-Products/Fuel-oils-and-canisters/MotoMix/21098-1633/MotoMix.aspx

Edit: it does show that price is not an obstacle. We used to pay this sort of money for control race fuel in the 1990s. Unless you do very high mileage the biggest cost of running a new car is depreciation. There aren’t many that cost you less than £3000 a year over the first 3 years. 

Martyn1981

2nd_time_buyer said:

I tell you what, reading these threads makes me realize what a time it is to be alive. The next few years are set to be a seismic shift in energy production and transport not seen since the industrial revolution. Perhaps this will be the environmental revolution.

I know, it's so exciting, to actually get to watch an energy and transport revolution happening, and possibly at a speed faster than we could have hoped.

Fun times.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Cracking numbers for the UK BEV market too in Nov, getting close to 1/5th of all sales, and double Nov 2020.

UK Plugin EV Share Hits Record 28.1% In November & Diesel At Just 5%

JKenH said:

Battery EV uptake doubles, but new car market remains well adrift of pre-pandemic levels

2nd_time_buyer said:

I think the chip shortage is being used as a catch-all for lots of supply issues in the car sector. However, it is also a good bargaining chip: 

"You can cancel if you want but we can sell your new car to someone else with no issue."

Supply is short, because the chips are being bought as a commodity and are being horded. The chips that are used in cars are very specific so the excuse of increased demand for computers during COVID is difficult to believe. If it was true, then I would imagine a £30k car would get presence over a £300 laptop (which are still readily available).  

It may suit the manufactures to have lower sales with increased profit margins whilst they transition to BEVs. So I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to blame chip shortage for as long as possible. 

All the reports about the mix of vehicles sold have to be considered with caution given that supply of new cars is currently constrained and total sales are supply-limited not demand-limited.

It could be chips, or if it were not that, whatever the next tight supply item is in the automotive chain.

I have said before in this thread, and been challenged on it, that the manufacturer would favour more expensive cars over cheaper ones if they cannot build them all (a less-extreme version of the car - laptop analogy used above).  EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their retail price point, not because the manufacturers are driving EV for any conscientious reason.

As much as the low supply of cars overall is meaning that percentage EV rises (which we in this thread are in favour of), I wonder what it does to the mix of ICE cars.  My reference point is the local dealer, of a premium brand, with very low stock levels - as of this morning they have 17 "used" cars in stock, all 21 - 71 plate and notional mileage.  Of the 17-cars, three are under £30k while ten are over £45k.  These over £45k cars are big off-road style inefficient 35 mpg polluting petrol-guzzlers.

There is nothing to say that the local dealer I observe is representative, but I can see that it very well could be.  That could well mean that we have a glut of cars at the extreme ends - EVs or gas-guzzlers - and far fewer "standard" cars.  If that is true, the high proportion of gas-guzzlers is likely compensation for the increased sales of EV's in terms of environmental impact.

I agree with para 1-3 but not quite sure where you are going with 4 and 5.

Coastalwatch

2nd_time_buyer said:

I tell you what, reading these threads makes me realize what a time it is to be alive. The next few years are set to be a seismic shift in energy production and transport not seen since the industrial revolution. Perhaps this will be the environmental revolution.

Too right, spent all my life burning FF's like there was no tomorrow, as I suspect most of us have, but now I know the harm it has done we're just trying not to repeat the unwitting mistakes of the past and can't wait to see the end of ICE vehicles in this country. So planning to be around long enough to witness that. Oh, and to get a return on our investment in Graig Fartha, not to mention a few other renewable projects too. But who knows!

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

All the reports about the mix of vehicles sold have to be considered with caution given that supply of new cars is currently constrained and total sales are supply-limited not demand-limited.

It could be chips, or if it were not that, whatever the next tight supply item is in the automotive chain.

I have said before in this thread, and been challenged on it, that the manufacturer would favour more expensive cars over cheaper ones if they cannot build them all (a less-extreme version of the car - laptop analogy used above).  EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their retail price point, not because the manufacturers are driving EV for any conscientious reason.

As much as the low supply of cars overall is meaning that percentage EV rises (which we in this thread are in favour of), I wonder what it does to the mix of ICE cars.  My reference point is the local dealer, of a premium brand, with very low stock levels - as of this morning they have 17 "used" cars in stock, all 21 - 71 plate and notional mileage.  Of the 17-cars, three are under £30k while ten are over £45k.  These over £45k cars are big off-road style inefficient 35 mpg polluting petrol-guzzlers.

There is nothing to say that the local dealer I observe is representative, but I can see that it very well could be.  That could well mean that we have a glut of cars at the extreme ends - EVs or gas-guzzlers - and far fewer "standard" cars.  If that is true, the high proportion of gas-guzzlers is likely compensation for the increased sales of EV's in terms of environmental impact.

I agree with para 1-3 but not quite sure where you are going with 4 and 5.

So, good as far as "EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their price point".

So, where I was going after that was that a manufacturer may simply prefer any car at the higher price point and not really care whether that is an EV or an ICE.  This reflects the cars that are going through the local Dealer - mostly £50k vehicles and not the cheaper ones.  Those £50k vehicles are then the big and inefficient ones.

So, some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k EV and some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k ICE - those that make it to an EV are a good news story whereas those making it to the gas-guzzler ICE are a bad news story. 

There seem to be the biggest shortage in supply is small, family ICE's which are, generally, the more efficient types of ICE so the ones that would be preferred from a green perspective.  The preferential drive to higher value £50k cars could well be distorting the ICE market as well as the high-EV market penetration.

Hope that helps explain.


On a different point, I am unsure what these figures mean and how they have been derived:

JKenH said:

Surely, data such as average price for all second-hand Ford Focus is largely meaningless as the mix of cars (age) could be widely different from one period to another.  Much the same applies to many of the models in the list.

The most meaningful change is probably the TM3, perhaps indicating that used models are increasing in availability.

This is just a comment / observation as I realise the data is only shared for information and you are not the originator.

JKenH

The motor trader article indicates that the table shows the biggest increases and contractions in values in the year to November. No details are given of the age mix but presumably if the  sample is big enough the age spread will be similar now to the start of the year. 66000 Ford Focuses changed hand in Q3 2021 so with that sample size I think it unlikely any age difference would distort the figures.

Those which have risen are either more in demand or supply has reduced. Those which have fallen indicate either falling demand or increasing supply. The price movements less than 5% are probably not statistically significant but where prices have risen over 40% would tend to suggest either people are holding onto their cars or buyers are desperate to get their hands on them. Either way they are relatively popular.

With the model 3 the Tesla bear would say that he would have expected with the waiting times being quoted by November for new Model3s being into next year the secondhand prices should at least have kept pace with the general trend of rising secondhand prices and demand has therefore dropped  The Tesla bull would say as Model 3s only reached the UK in mid 2019 the oldest car at the start of 2021 would have been about 18 months old and by November 2021 around 28 months old, i.e. the later Tesla sample would have been considerably older.

Take your pick.