Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

shinytop said:

On the subject of  2-T vs BE tools, I've found battery works really well with things like chainsaws where you need short, powerful blasts but less well when you need longer, continuous running, like strimmers and lawn mowers.  I'm sure battery gardening tools are cheaper to operate for commercial gardners but the initial investment would be substantial for tools that will be running 7-8 hours a day. They'd need a lot of batteries and chargers. 

Exactly what I assumed, but check out the vid, the numbers/economics are quite astonishing, with extremely short payback periods and reductions in maintenance/cleaning time. It almost seems like all of the companies should be switching over now, regardless of any rules/regs. Again, this assumes that their maths are correct and fair.

Martyn1981

Here's one of the big results I've been waiting for, Germany, and it's very good. 20% BEV's, the disruption is now in full swing, give or take that pesky issue of supply limitations.

Another big market, China, could be interesting to see. Rumours suggest that BEV sales by most of the Chinese brands rocketed in November.

Legacy Combustion Vehicles Drop Below 50% Share In Germany As Plugins Grab Over A Third Of The Market

Europe’s largest auto market, Germany, saw plugin electric vehicles take 34.4% share in November, up from 20.5% a year ago. Full electrics (BEVs) alone took 20.3% share, well ahead of diesel at 15.8% share. Combined legacy combustion powertrains fell below 50% share for the first time. At 198,298 sales, the overall auto market was down some 34% from November 2019.

November’s combined plugin result of 34.4% comprised full battery electrics (BEVs) at 20.3% and plugin hybrids PHEVs at 14.1%. This continues the reweighting towards BEVs seen over the past 4 months, from more even weightings in H1 2021 and throughout 2020.

The cumulative plugin share for 2021 now stands at 25.1% from 12.0% at this point last year. The most recent trailing 3-months have seen combined plugin share of 31.2%, with BEVs alone at 18.2%.

Coastalwatch

shinytop said:

Martyn1981 said:

One of the reasons Cali is ahead is because they decided to set their own emissions standards for vehicles and fleet sales about 50 yrs ago. Their right to do this was rubber stamped by the President every 6 months until Trump took charge. The problem with Cali having a higher standard is that it forces companies to produce cleaner cars to raise their fleet standard as they can't risk losing Cali sales (about 10% of the US), nor afford to build to two separate standards. Trump spotted this when he decided to reduce the CAFE (corporate average fuel efficiency) targets.

Yup that killed off 2 stroke motorcycles in the mid-70s. Now they were polluting. 

Sadly for me two strokes have been my favoured form of two wheeled fun over the years and I've still two or three in the garage I like to give an airing too a few times a year. I know, slapped wrist time. However, as I use a vegetable based oil, Castrol R or similar for lubrication then are they equally polluting!

Taking it a stage further, combining a vegetable oil with a bio fuel then just how polluting might that still be?

shinytop

Don't worry too much, I'm sure you have enough carbon/pollutant credits in the bank to make up for it. 

Martyn1981

Looks like Toyota is starting to bend towards reality ..... OK, bend towards what they'll be legally obliged to do, but progress is still progress. And best of luck to them selling upto 50% of vehicles in 2030 that still have an ICE.


Toyota commits to 100% zero-emission sales in Europe by 2035, because it essentially has to

During a recent media event in Brussels, Toyota Europe outlined a plan for a 100% CO2 reduction in all-new vehicle sales in the market by 2035. This “goal” will be preceded by a sales mix of at least 50% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in Western Europe by 2030. On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.

Seems like an admirable goal, albeit a little slow. However, additional context of the EV outlook in Europe reveals that Toyota is simply doing the bare minimum to continue to sell vehicles in that market. As part of the European Green Deal this past July, the EU proposed an entire package of climate proposals, including reductions of new car emissions by 55% by 2030, and 100% by 2035. Sound familiar?

Electrek’s Take

It’s great that Toyota has made these commitments in Europe and that it is (finally) bringing (some) new EVs into the global market. It’s a segment that is seemingly destined to become the new normal for transportation.

That being said, a commitment to a goal that was essentially made mandatory by all the countries you hope to sell your vehicles in, with no mention of even striving toward an earlier deadline, feels forced. Because it is. Forgive me if I’m disinclined to hand out a gold star.

Superscrooge

Just came across this WhatCar EV charging survey, if anyone wants to give their views on the public EV charging network?  
https://www.whatcar.com/news/what-car-electric-car-charging-survey/n23040

JKenH

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

As most countries are currently allowing new ICE production until at least 2030, I don’t really see why it is important for Toyota to set an expiry date now for their production. These sort of announcements are primarily a PR exercise and I really don’t see what the companies plan to achieve by making them. 

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then? Could in 2004 anyone have predicted that electric cars could have been so practical and price competitive as they are now? 

Technology improves at an ever increasing pace and Toyota are wise not to commit to something so far ahead. Regulations by then in most developed countries will dictate that only zero emission vehicles are sold by 2035 and Toyota will be bound by this. It seems to be EV campaigners that demand that manufacturers acknowledge that EVs will be the only technology of merit in 14 years time and must swear allegiance to that cause and not consider other technologies.

There is much faux concern that Toyota will go out of business if they don’t transition but could this just be hiding the worry that some parts of the world might still be relaxed about ICE cars post 2035 and Toyota will still have the production to supply cars to that market? Yes that will be appalling in the eyes of climate campaigners but if governments still permit ICE cars then someone will make them. 

I think it is important to bear in mind that whilst many believe climate change is the most pressing issue facing the world the reality is that in practice there are often more practical issues facing governments and societies. We cannot expect the rest of the world to share our values and priorities and there maybe many markets still open to traditional ICE manufacturers after 2035. It is not up to Toyota to make policy; their job. Is to make and sell motor vehicles at a profit. That is what their shareholders demand and until that changes they will probably continue to make ICEVs for markets that want them. 

Ectophile

And best of luck to them selling upto 50% of vehicles in 2030 that still have an ICE.

If it's selling Hiluxes and Land Cruisers into developing countries, then they may have a market for many years to come.

QrizB

Ectophile said:

And best of luck to them selling upto 50% of vehicles in 2030 that still have an ICE.

If it's selling Hiluxes and Land Cruisers into developing countries, then they may have a market for many years to come

The comment from Martyn, and the article he quoted, related specifically to the Western European market:

This “goal” will be preceded by a sales mix of at least 50% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in Western Europe by 2030.

orrery

JKenH said:

“On a broader scale, Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dig in its heels as one of the few major automakers that has yet to set an expiry for gasoline vehicle production.”

What if zero carbon synthetic fuels do take off? Won’t they look a bit silly then? We just don’t know what the state of technology will be in the auto sector by then?

But we do know a few basic facts that relate to these issues. Basically, we know the direction of travel - EVs have outperformed all expectations and the evidence is that drivers love them. The death of the ICE will be driven by buyers, not by car manufacturers, which is why I've never been a supporter of some arbitrary cut-off date (2030, 2035 whatever).

Liquid fuels have to be manufactured. By the time you've pushed hydrogen through a fuel cell in a HFCEV you'll have expended 3 to 4 times the energy you would have used had you just charged your EV. That means that hydrogen (or hydrogen derived liquid fuels) will always cost roughly what we pay for petrol now.

Given a couple more years of EV development and falling prices, who in their right mind is going to buy a petrol car that costs more to buy, more to service, more to fuel and is less reliable, than an EV? Some analysts are projecting that people won't be able to afford to run an ICE, even if they were given one for free, in a few years time.

That's the issue with Toyota and EVs. They are the one company who could have been leading the pack after the massive success of the Prius, but they are nowhere to be seen. Still no EV announcement, just lots of puff about 'EV concept cars'. They are caught-up in their own arrogance, thinking that they can just turn on production of EVs which is a mistake - witness the issues that VW group have had with their EV range, ID3s parked on airfields due to braking software issues, no over-the-air updates, still no working charge timers (ID4, Enyaq) and unlikely to be fixed until Q2 2022.

If zero-carbon fuels take off? A HFCEV is just an EV with a smaller battery and a fuel cell - I'd be surprised if most car manufacturers don't have a project going in the background to allow lorries, coaches and vans to use hydrogen or other such fuels.