Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

ICE power trains are likely to increase in cost as they become more complex to deliver improved fuel economy and reduced emissions. The current cost to meet EURO 6 rules is in the region of $1,600 and that number isn't going down with the more stringent future rules.

Yep, and electric motors will keep getting cheaper as their production numbers rise, just like PV panels did as their costs fell at roughly 20% for every doubling of production.

In fact, what we might see is a very small number of electric motors per auto company, perhaps 3 (small, medium and large), replacing a vast range of ICE engines of multiple displacements and technology/performance, various valvetrains and forced air induction add-ons across the model list.

Taking another step, perhaps just one motor, but deployed in multiples depending on power needs, such as the Tesla model 3 motor, of which four will be deployed in the Tesla semi. Elon has said that the semi will pull like a diesel with just two motors, hence why Tesla are suggesting a 1,000,000 miles no breakdown guarantee. I believe the Cybertruck is to get 1, 2 or 3 of these motors too, depending on model choice.

And of course, taking the last step, we might see multiple automakers using a motor from one manufacturer, that would bring costs down massively, and provide for easy replacement if there was an issue.

almillar

Yes but you are wrong
It's not just about annual production numbers it's more about production X time so you can have steady output and improvements

Is it really? Ford's Fiesta does not benefit from economy of scale over an Aston Martin DB9? You're able to just tell me I'm wrong? If the DB9 has nice steady production of precisely 1 car per week, and the Fiesta does 100 per week, they're exactly as efficient, and there's no such thing as economy of scale? And also, of course, WHY?

EV powertrain prices will fall but not forever.

Er, OK, that we agree on. I've already given you an example of them falling fast (you ignored), I've said the improvements/cost reduction will slow (you seem to be saying the same thing).

In my experience new car buyers have a rough budget and they shop for a car based on that

In my experience car buyers' budgets are monthly, hence the huge PCP/Lease market. Since we're talking about new cars.

EV numbers will expand and for a time that will result in cheaper EV powertrain but that will come to a stop probably in less than five years time

[citation needed]

I thought you didn't believe in crystal balls?

I'm asking you to back up your claim that EV powertrains will simply stop getting cheaper in less than 5 years, as if you actually know something?! What is your reasoning? I've given you mine above.

No I accept EV prices have gone down and will continue to go down

Yes, and not forever, agreed.

But I also accept an EV powertrain seems to be about £12,000 Vs £2,000 for an ICE
Can prices fall 85% to cover this difference totally?
I'm not convinced.

You've accepted those numbers after making them up yourself. I haven't accepted them.

Martyn1981

almillar wrote: »

But I also accept an EV powertrain seems to be about £12,000 Vs £2,000 for an ICE

You've accepted those numbers after making them up yourself. I haven't accepted them.

Sorry to intrude, but can I just check:

1. Is he suggesting that £2k is the average cost of a whole ICE powertrain, including engine block, valvetrain, intake system, exhaust system (including cat), cooling system, fuel tank, clutch and gearbox (and everything else I've missed)?

2. If it is all in for £2k, where can I get it?

JKenH

This is why GA’s posts are so invaluable. This discussion has made me go find out stuff that I didn’t realise I wanted to know.

In the paper below, in 2017 the cost of an ICE drivetrain is quoted at 22-24%of the manufacturing cost whereas for a BEV the battery and drivetrain are put at 43-70%. These are the costs to the manufacturer not retail costs. No actual £ figures are quoted but based on these figures the drivetrain cost for entry level small cars at £2000 might not be that ridiculous after all.

https://steps.ucdavis.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FRIES-MICHAEL-An-Overview-of-Costs-for-Vehicle-Components-Fuels-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-and-Total-Cost-of-Ownership-Update-2017-.pdf

Edit: also in the article is a ratio of OEM cost compared to retail which for a small car is quoted at 1:1.7 so for a car retailing at £15k inc Vat, £12500 before Vat, OEM cost would be £7353 and drivetrain cost about £1700.

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

No actual £ figures are quoted but based on these figures the drivetrain cost for entry level small cars at £2000 might not be that ridiculous after all.

Oh I see. I only saw what Al quoted, I didn't know that GA was giving figures for 'entry level small cars' before tax.

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Oh I see. I only saw what Al quoted, I didn't know that GA was giving figures for 'entry level small cars' before tax.

‘Entry level small cars’ was my quote before I found the 1:1.7 ratio cost to retail. It is quite usual for a manufacturer when calculating cost to do so net of VAT which is only added when the car is sold.

The ratio for upper midrange and premium cars is 2:1 so a car retailing at £36000 (inc Vat) would have a drivetrain cost of around £3500. I think the cars GA has been talking about are like the Golf at around £18k retail where the drivetrain cost would indeed be around £2000.

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

‘Entry level small cars’ was my quote before I found the 1:1.7 ratio cost to retail. It is quite usual for a manufacturer when calculating cost to do so net of VAT which is only added when the car is sold.

The ratio for upper midrange and premium cars is 2:1 so a car retailing at £36000 (inc Vat) would have a drivetrain cost of around £3500. I think the cars GA has been talking about are like the Golf at around £18k retail where the drivetrain cost would indeed be around £2000.

Ah, so you altered what was being discussed, and went for the cheapest ICE instead, fair enough.

So can I just check, the cost of a Golf is 'around' £18k yes, it doesn't start at £21k for the 1lt petrol and go up from there?

And the 1lt petrol model's entire powertrain costs just £2,000?

And this provides comparable performance to a £26k Nissan Leaf 150PS, or perhaps a £38k TM3 base model with 335PS?

Martyn1981

Speaking of VW (shoehorned in from Golf mention), they seem to have realised the need to move faster on BEV's or get left behind:

Volkswagen CEO: We Need To Move Faster On Electric Vehicles Or We Will Follow Nokia’s Fate

Volkswagen’s CEO, Herbert Diess, has reportedly expressed yet again the corporation’s powerful internal struggles regarding the transition to electric vehicles. Before jumping into his latest comments, though, I’d like to go back to what former Fiat Chrysler Automobiles CEO Sergio Marchionne made rather clear a few years ago: legacy automakers have to reinvent themselves in order to be true electric vehicle companies. Many outsiders consider the shift from making fossil fuel vehicles to making electric vehicles as a simple transition, but it’s actually an existential crisis for large automakers.

As I’ve written before, legacy automakers are walking an extremely thin and difficult tightrope. On the one hand, if they don’t electrify fast enough, they’re dead. On the other hand, they have to invest an enormous amount of money to move from fossil powertrains to electric powertrains to remain at a similar production scale as they exist today, and they will certainly have to swallow stranded assets and sunk costs that will make their financials look a bit shabby for a while.

and to be fair to them, they have always planned to lead the EV charge:

In 2010, Volkswagen Aimed To Become The World’s #1 EV Producer By 2018

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Ah, so you altered what was being discussed, and went for the cheapest ICE instead, fair enough.

So can I just check, the cost of a Golf is 'around' £18k yes, it doesn't start at £21k for the 1lt petrol and go up from there?

And the 1lt petrol model's entire powertrain costs just £2,000?

And this provides comparable performance to a £26k Nissan Leaf 150PS, or perhaps a £38k TM3 base model with 335PS?

Price list from early 2019 shows recommended retail price including Vat of £17540 for the cheapest Golf. I think the base model has been dropped as run out of the Mk7.

I can’t say it actually costs £2000 but that’s what the calculation would suggest.

Have i said it compares performance wise with a Leaf or M3? If I could have got my hands on a TM3 for £38k I would have bought one.

ABrass

JKenH wrote: »

‘Entry level small cars’ was my quote before I found the 1:1.7 ratio cost to retail. It is quite usual for a manufacturer when calculating cost to do so net of VAT which is only added when the car is sold.

The ratio for upper midrange and premium cars is 2:1 so a car retailing at £36000 (inc Vat) would have a drivetrain cost of around £3500. I think the cars GA has been talking about are like the Golf at around £18k retail where the drivetrain cost would indeed be around £2000.

It's a mistake to apply the average profit margin to the entry level models which have the lowest margin possible. You're going to get silly numbers out of it if you do.