Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

Isn't it $100 now? Or is that just the batteries?

What we can estimate is is before government subsidies a BEV costs some £9000 more than its petrol cousin eg Golf Vs E Golf or Hybrid ionic Vs EV ionic

Let's just say for arguments sake an I E powertrain costs £2,500 so the cost of the Eav side is £9000 + £2500 and an E Golf has 35.8KWh

So you can estimate roughly

Golf shell £15,000
Golf ICE £2,500
Golf EV powertrain £11,500 (~£320/KWh)

And I'll say again this ~£320/KWh (£267 pre VAT) is not just the cells but everything

For EV to cost the same as an ICE you'd need the EV powertrain price to fall from £11,500 to £2,500. Let's say a £2,500 premium is acceptable in Europe that still means prices need to fall from £11,500 to £5,000 or about 60%

And this also has lots of positive assumptions
Like VW are selling the EV at the same profit margin as the ICE rather than subsidising it

Is this possible for the EV powertrain prices to fall 60%? Perhaps but we aren't close
I think we are at least 2 generations away

almillar

You can build ~40 hybrids (1.5KWh) with the batteries needed for one full EV (40-100KW)

Yes you're very keen to point this out, there's a lot of material and effort to go into building the entire ICE drivetrain too. I'll accept it's cheaper right now, but it's only going one direction.

I think that's just the battery cells
You need to build the battery pack
The cooling
The safety
*The power electronics to both charge them from AC to DC
*And then the power electronics to discharge them from DC to Variable AC
And of course a heavy battery system means you need to build a bigger stronger frame

Yep. So just make sure you count that against the entire drivetrain required for the ICE, the cooling (ICE needs this too, you know!!), safety (explosive liquid!) and of course the bigger brakes required since there is no regenerative braking. The items I have starred are already part of an EV drivetrain, no need to double count.

All of these things will improve but it's not at all clear the price differential will drop enough anytime soon

It's dropping all the time.
Renault Zoe 22kWh 2014 £25,000.
Renault Zoe 50kWh 2020 £25,000.
Price stays the same, range doubles. 6 years.

Also realise that EVs are heavily subsidised and as EVs get more competitive the subsidises will be reduced. Just like with solar PV.

£3,500. It will go down along with demand and prices.

Let's just say for arguments sake an I E powertrain costs £2,500

Let's not. You're just plucking numbers out of the air. And I've already told you that the Golf is an expensive example of EV cost.
In your faux calculations you've forgotton to count that the ICE cost will go up.

EVs currently cost more to make than ICEVs. The price of making EVs will come down. The price of making ICEVs will go up. Mass market economics, economies of scale, EVs are a tiny new manufacturing opertation compared to the massive numbers of ICE being produced, after (nearly?) 100 years of refinement. ICE production numbers will go down, EV will go up. EV will change from niche to mainstream. ICE will go the other way. Mainstream is cheaper than niche.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

Yes you're very keen to point this out, there's a lot of material and effort to go into building the entire ICE drivetrain too. I'll accept it's cheaper right now, but it's only going one direction.

Yep. So just make sure you count that against the entire drivetrain required for the ICE, the cooling (ICE needs this too, you know!!), safety (explosive liquid!) and of course the bigger brakes required since there is no regenerative braking. The items I have starred are already part of an EV drivetrain, no need to double count.

It's dropping all the time.
Renault Zoe 22kWh 2014 £25,000.
Renault Zoe 50kWh 2020 £25,000.
Price stays the same, range doubles. 6 years.

£3,500. It will go down along with demand and prices.

Let's not. You're just plucking numbers out of the air. And I've already told you that the Golf is an expensive example of EV cost.
In your faux calculations you've forgotton to count that the ICE cost will go up.

EVs currently cost more to make than ICEVs. The price of making EVs will come down. The price of making ICEVs will go up. Mass market economics, economies of scale, EVs are a tiny new manufacturing opertation compared to the massive numbers of ICE being produced, after (nearly?) 100 years of refinement. ICE production numbers will go down, EV will go up. EV will change from niche to mainstream. ICE will go the other way. Mainstream is cheaper than niche.

You're making the same mistake the PV fans did in 2005-2010 assuming always lower prices
Prices fall until they don't no more. I don't think we are there yet with EVs
There is at least 1-2 generations of price falls remaining but after that not so much

With regards to ICE prices increasing
No reason to think they will go up in real terms to any significant degree

The Zoe is based on the Clio afaik
That's a £12,555 ICE Vs a £25,000 EV
Twice the price hardly an advert to highlight how affordable EVs are

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

Let's not. You're just plucking numbers out of the air.

You are picking statements out of thin air

And I've already told you that the Golf is an expensive example of EV cost.

No it's not

An E golf costs ~£9,000 more than a petrol golf
An E ionic costs ~9,000 more than a petrol ionic
A Zoe cost ~£12,000 more than a petrol Clio

In your faux calculations you've forgotton to count that the ICE cost will go up.

Says your crystal ball

The price of making EVs will come down.

Sure but not forever

The price of making ICEVs will go up

No reason to think they will go up much in real terms

Mass market economics, economies of scale, EVs are a tiny new manufacturing opertation compared to the massive numbers of ICE being produced, after (nearly?) 100 years of refinement. ICE production numbers will go down, EV will go up. EV will change from niche to mainstream. ICE will go the other way. Mainstream is cheaper than niche.

ICE numbers won't go down anytime soon as the automotive sector will expand as poor countries become not so poor

EV numbers will expand and for a time that will result in cheaper EV powertrain but that will come to a stop probably in less than five years time

This won't even necessarily results in cheaper EVs because governments will lower subsidies
Early Tesla adopters got $7,500 off their model 3s via tax credits now that's zero so actually model 3 prices in their biggest market got more expensive not Cheaper

Martyn1981

Also realise that EVs are heavily subsidised and as EVs get more competitive the subsidises will be reduced.

Not as much as ICEV's are by not having to pay for their externalities such as air pollution and AGW.

The BEV subsidies are just one example of an ICEV 'subsidy', since they are being paid to encourage people to move from ICEV's to a cleaner, greener technology in order to reduce the real cost of the ICE.


It's always worth remembering that nations don't pay subsidies out for fun, they do it when the alternative costs more. So be it BEV, RE, space heating etc etc subsidies, these are in fact actually FF externality costs, not cleaner alternative subsidies ...... once you get your head around it.

The cool thing is that these subsidies are reducing or ending fast as the alternatives start to beat the old FF options on up front costs, even before we include the vast externality costs.

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Not as much as ICEV's are by not having to pay for their externalities such as air pollution and AGW.

The BEV subsidies are just one example of an ICEV 'subsidy', since they are being paid to encourage people to move from ICEV's to a cleaner, greener technology in order to reduce the real cost of the ICE.

It's always worth remembering that nations don't pay subsidies out for fun, they do it when the alternative costs more. So be it BEV, RE, space heating etc etc subsidies, these are in fact actually FF externality costs, not cleaner alternative subsidies ...... once you get your head around it.

The cool thing is that these subsidies are reducing or ending fast as the alternatives start to beat the old FF options on up front costs, even before we include the vast externality costs.

The external costs of fossil fuels are close to zero and most likely negative

How much does the NHS save thanks for warm homes made possible by affordable natural gas?
How many lives were saved how many millions of sick days were avoided thanks to North sea gas and the mass deployment of affordable of central heating in the 70s/80s?


On the other hand where are your claimed billions in externalities heath and wellbeing costs if we stopped using coal? We've more or less eliminated coal useage in power in the UK and there has been no noticeable heath dividend. Like I say all the natives of fossil fuels are negligible in reality while blown up magnitudes in fantasy 'studies'

almillar

You're making the same mistake the PV fans did in 2005-2010 assuming always lower prices
Prices fall until they don't no more. I don't think we are there yet with EVs
There is at least 1-2 generations of price falls remaining but after that not so much

With regards to ICE prices increasing
No reason to think they will go up in real terms to any significant degree

I just gave you a reason why ICE prices will go up. Their economy of scale (make lots, get cheaper) will go down. Also, relatively, EV drivetrains will benefit from economy of scale, as more are made. Did you read it?

I'm under no illusion that battery prices will continue to 'tumble' but there's plenty of movement yet. I gave you an example of capacity doubling, in a car of the same price, within 6 years. I don't think that will happen again, but there's certainly more to go. Neither of us can really go any further than that. I think parity between the two drivetrains will come within 10 years.

The Zoe is based on the Clio afaik
That's a £12,555 ICE Vs a £25,000 EV
Twice the price hardly an advert to highlight how affordable EVs are

That's a real anti-EV beginner's mistake. I know you know better than that. Do not compare the EV against the base spec ICE. The EV is far better specced. Match 0-60 time, rear parking camera etc. You are simply lying when you say Zoe is twice the price of Clio. The all new Clio (lanched around the same time as Zoe, don't compare new to old models), which you should be comparing, STARTS AT £14,695 with a 75bhp engine. So that's not a fair comparison but that'll start you off. Tell me bigger discounts are available on ICE cars and I'll believe you. And I'll leave you to wonder why.

Says your crystal ball

Is your crystal ball better than mine?!! We're both making predictions. I'm backing mine up with my own experience, knowledge or, franky, guessing. You're presenting made up numbers as if they're fact.

ICE numbers won't go down anytime soon as the automotive sector will expand as poor countries become not so poor

You always have to drag us out of the UK to win your arguments.

EV numbers will expand and for a time that will result in cheaper EV powertrain but that will come to a stop probably in less than five years time

[citation needed]

This won't even necessarily results in cheaper EVs because governments will lower subsidies

You've spent quite a long time telling us that EVs are really expensive, and only get cheaper because of subisidies, and now you're telling us, as if we don't already know, that these subsidies, at some point, will vanish. Of course they will. They're temporary, to encourage EV purchases. They won't be needed for ever, as the RELATIVE price of EVs versus ICE goes down. Which you're also having trouble with!

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

I just gave you a reason why ICE prices will go up. Their economy of scale (make lots, get cheaper) will go down. Also, relatively, EV drivetrains will benefit from economy of scale, as more are made. Did you read it?

Yes but you are wrong
It's not just about annual production numbers it's more about production X time so you can have steady output and improvements

Also I don't think ICE numbers will fall
They will be higher in 10 years time than they are today

EV powertrain prices will fall but not forever.

I'm under no illusion that battery prices will continue to 'tumble' but there's plenty of movement yet. I gave you an example of capacity doubling, in a car of the same price, within 6 years. I don't think that will happen again, but there's certainly more to go. Neither of us can really go any further than that. I think parity between the two drivetrains will come within 10 years.

Early on prices fall a lot not so much later

I hope your right and I think there is a reasonable chance that by 2030 a 150 mile model can truely be the same price as a petrol version on all but the lowest price ICEs

That's a real anti-EV beginner's mistake. I know you know better than that. Do not compare the EV against the base spec ICE. The EV is far better specced. Match 0-60 time, rear parking camera etc. You are simply lying when you say Zoe is twice the price of Clio. The all new Clio (lanched around the same time as Zoe, don't compare new to old models), which you should be comparing, STARTS AT £14,695 with a 75bhp engine. So that's not a fair comparison but that'll start you off. Tell me bigger discounts are available on ICE cars and I'll believe you. And I'll leave you to wonder why.

In my experience new car buyers have a rough budget and they shop for a car based on that
If you have a £13-15k budget you'd look at things like the fiesta the polo
You wouldn't be looking at the Zoe at twice the price

And people with £25k budget will be looking at A4s SUVs etc not typically a Zoe class vehicle at that price point

is your crystal ball better than mine?!!.

Yes I think so

You always have to drag us out of the UK to win your arguments.

We are talking about cars which are global

[citation needed]

I thought you didn't believe in crystal balls?

You've spent quite a long time telling us that EVs are really expensive, and only get cheaper because of subisidies, and now you're telling us, as if we don't already know, that these subsidies, at some point, will vanish. Of course they will. They're temporary, to encourage EV purchases. They won't be needed for ever, as the RELATIVE price of EVs versus ICE goes down. Which you're also having trouble with!

No I accept EV prices have gone down and will continue to go down

But I also accept an EV powertrain seems to be about £12,000 Vs £2,000 for an ICE
Can prices fall 85% to cover this difference totally?
I'm not convinced.

Before you say it, I accept EV powertrain doesn't need to be as cheap as ICE but imo it has to get to no more than ~£2000 more than an ICE

So a ford focus or WV golf at ~£18,000 needs a electric focus/golf for £20,000 with 150 mile on the motorway. If they could produce such a vehicle at that price point they'd sell as many as they can make. The lower end also needs competition. A fiesta or polo clone but electric with 120 motorway miles for ~£16,000

ABrass

ICE power trains are likely to increase in cost as they become more complex to deliver improved fuel economy and reduced emissions. The current cost to meet EURO 6 rules is in the region of $1,600 and that number isn't going down with the more stringent future rules.

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

ICE power trains are likely to increase in cost as they become more complex to deliver improved fuel economy and reduced emissions. The current cost to meet EURO 6 rules is in the region of $1,600 and that number isn't going down with the more stringent future rules.

I'm not convinced ICE costs will go up in real terms

But even if ICE costs go up that's okay for ICE cars in that the world needs cars and ICE cars are the only thing available on a large scale

Even Tesla road map seems to be to get to about 1 million cars per year in about 2022 that's just 1% of the market most the market will still be ICE

A lot of the talk of BEVs is very suggestive of the immediate demise of ICE
But this is obviously ridiculous capacity grows relatively slowly

For all the fanfare of Tesla they built less than 400,000 cars last year
An almost fully developed world needs 250 million cars a year (scale up UK demand by 100x to represent a world of 7 billion developed and 2-3 billion poor)

It's a bit like the argument of solar and wind power
Sure they are being deployed in huge quantities
But fossil fuel useage continues to grow
The same will be true of auto sales
Even if BEVs are sold in a huge 5 million a year the ICE stock will still grow

The only way this won't be true is if

#1 costs come down to ICE levels
#2 battery production volumes increase massively

Neither looks likely in the next 5 years
And that's not to suggest that after five years it will happen

I hope it does!!!
I'm just not convinced
While many think it's a certainty