Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yep, and electric motors will keep getting cheaper as their production numbers rise, just like PV panels did as their costs fell at roughly 20% for every doubling of production.

In fact, what we might see is a very small number of electric motors per auto company, perhaps 3 (small, medium and large), replacing a vast range of ICE engines of multiple displacements and technology/performance, various valvetrains and forced air induction add-ons across the model list.

Taking another step, perhaps just one motor, but deployed in multiples depending on power needs, such as the Tesla model 3 motor, of which four will be deployed in the Tesla semi. Elon has said that the semi will pull like a diesel with just two motors, hence why Tesla are suggesting a 1,000,000 miles no breakdown guarantee. I believe the Cybertruck is to get 1, 2 or 3 of these motors too, depending on model choice.

And of course, taking the last step, we might see multiple automakers using a motor from one manufacturer, that would bring costs down massively, and provide for easy replacement if there was an issue.

Costs don't continuously fall forever
And solar PV hasn't really boomed like your pals asserting a decade ago
I recall many many many conversations of people insisting PV would just keep doubling every X period and this mean that the whole planet would be PV on literally a few short years

Electric motor side doesn't have a huge amount of improvement
Mostly because electric motor production vastly exceeds ICE production probably >10x

The cost side is to do with batteries battery housing battery management and the power electronics to charge and discharge them into a motor. Those will just cheaper but fundamentally a 500kg battery powertrain isn't likely to get as cheap as a 100kg ICE powertrain

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

Is it really? Ford's Fiesta does not benefit from economy of scale over an Aston Martin DB9? You're able to just tell me I'm wrong? If the DB9 has nice steady production of precisely 1 car per week, and the Fiesta does 100 per week, they're exactly as efficient, and there's no such thing as economy of scale? And also, of course, WHY?

Let's take an example of something I build just one of per year... Houses
Do you think my skill and experience and costs are no lower today on my 30th home than they were on my first home?

Because my annual output is the same it means costs will be the same?

In my experience car buyers' budgets are monthly, hence the huge PCP/Lease market. Since we're talking about new cars.

What's your point?

I'm asking you to back up your claim that EV powertrains will simply stop getting cheaper in less than 5 years, as if you actually know something?! What is your reasoning? I've given you mine above.

What is the relevance of the number of years
5 years of 1% falls is quite different to 5 years of 50% falls

The real question is can they get as cheap as ICE?
I'm confident the answer to that is no

Because 400kg of batteries with exotic materials isn't likely to ever be cheaper than 100kg of ICE which is mostly cheap steel

Also none of you seem to grasp the obvious fact that ICE costs can fall a LOT
The ICE car companies can cut costs a lot
Just like Marty and co were insisting shale would be bankrupt below $80 (or whatever they kept banging on about) but prices even half that didn't bankrupt the industry, they just cut costs

Nothing cuts costs quote like competition!

Oh and this isn't to suggest ICE are expensive
Already ICE can be really affordable
Hyundai i10 £6,670+VAT that's the whole car not just the engine

You've accepted those numbers after making them up yourself. I haven't accepted them.

So my reasonable estimates are less value than your totally pointless statements of 'EV powertrain costs will go down'?

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Sorry to intrude, but can I just check:

1. Is he suggesting that £2k is the average cost of a whole ICE powertrain, including engine block, valvetrain, intake system, exhaust system (including cat), cooling system, fuel tank, clutch and gearbox (and everything else I've missed)?

2. If it is all in for £2k, where can I get it?

You can buy a band new i10 for £6,700 before sales tax
Knock another 10% off to allow for profit and the car is being produced for a cost of £6000

This £6000 cost includes
Shipping
Advertisement
The body the wheels the glass the seats everything that makes the car
ICE powertrain
Dealership costs

So how much do you think this particular ICE powertrain costs?
I'd guess it is somewhere between 15-25% the mid point of which is £1,200

You can do the same for a polo of Fiesta about £10,500 cost to sell
What % of that cost do you think is the powertrain?

As I keep saying ICE are clearly cheaper than most of you like to think/hope

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

This is why GA’s posts are so invaluable. This discussion has made me go find out stuff that I didn’t realise I wanted to know.

In the paper below, in 2017 the cost of an ICE drivetrain is quoted at 22-24%of the manufacturing cost whereas for a BEV the battery and drivetrain are put at 43-70%. These are the costs to the manufacturer not retail costs. No actual £ figures are quoted but based on these figures the drivetrain cost for entry level small cars at £2000 might not be that ridiculous after all.

ICE powertrain are affordable to manufacture
22-24% I can accept but I think it's likely lower

Even for a bigger car like a Tiguan which is VW SUV
You can get that for sub £20k or £15k pre sales tax and pre VW profit
The powertrain is then £3,300 to £3,600 and that's for a big SUV

I'd suggest that's on the high side but even that shows how affordable ICE powertrain are

Doing the same for UK best selling car the fiesta gets £2200-£2400 for the ICE powertrain

And for an i10 powertrain £1320 - £1440

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Ah, so you altered what was being discussed, and went for the cheapest ICE instead, fair enough.

So can I just check, the cost of a Golf is 'around' £18k yes, it doesn't start at £21k for the 1lt petrol and go up from there?

And the 1lt petrol model's entire powertrain costs just £2,000?

And this provides comparable performance to a £26k Nissan Leaf 150PS, or perhaps a £38k TM3 base model with 335PS?

You can get a brand new golf for as little as £16k in the UK
It's the ugly SV variant but still it's a brand new golf
The ford focus ST is nice and it's £18,000 brand new

High performance isn't very relevent to the affordable end
People aren't selling their kids for performance
Which is why the best selling car in the UK is the low performance but affordable ford fiesta

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Speaking of VW (shoehorned in from Golf mention), they seem to have realised the need to move faster on BEV's or get left behind:

Afaik no one else but Tesla has proven significant demand for BEVs without subsidy or indirect dictate

And the reason Tesla is successful is primarily flex not because of electric that's it's side story

Or the ionic electric would also be selling like hot cakes but it isn't.....

What Tesla did right was it's price point
More expensive than Audi but not crazy expensive like a Ferrari
So if you want to flex do you get a £25k A4 or a £40k model 3 Tesla?
Well the Tesla because by definition it costs more it's a bigger flex

Tesla won't move down on price
Even of they managed to figure out a way to do cheap bars they'd just pocket the difference makes no sense to reduce price

In the same way a flex hand bag brand won't reduce prices
It's desirability is the expensive price the flex


I'd be more convinced of EVs if the affordable EVs were selling like mad
But afaik they aren't
What's the biggest non Tesla seller
What's its annual sales
And this is in a. Very very pro EV period with heavy direct and indirect subsidies

It might happen sometime
Bit I wouldn't hold my breath
Which is what I was saying to the solar PV cheerleaders a decade ago who were so certain the world would be mostly solar PV by now.... didn't quite work out! Although I can see PV growing over the next 50 years to be very significant. Likewise I can see BEVs growing to be very significant in 50 years time but the stories of 5 years from now it's all game over ICE is dead.....just ain't Gona happen

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

Price list from early 2019 shows recommended retail price including Vat of £17540 for the cheapest Golf. I think the base model has been dropped as run out of the Mk7.

I can’t say it actually costs £2000 but that’s what the calculation would suggest.

Have i said it compares performance wise with a Leaf or M3? If I could have got my hands on a TM3 for £38k I would have bought one.

Cool, so to make sure I have this correct.

You changed the 'story' to entry level small cars, you chose a price for Golfs in general, that was actually £3k less than the entry level of the cheapest, you've applied your calculations based entirely on assumptions, and have made no effort to match powertrains for fair and reasonable comparison.

But apart from that. you wholeheartedly support GA's efforts.

Glad we got that straight.


PS I can't help but think how much you could achieve if you put just a small amount of your energy and devotion towards doing good, I could retire tomorrow! ;-)

Martyn1981

Impressive figures for Tesla in North America, especially now that they are exporting so many of the TM3's.

Perhaps this year if demand for BEV's increases, and competition (and supply) from other manufacturers arrives, we might see a drop in Tesla's market share, or maybe the opposite now that Chinese TM3 production has started, and the TMY will be arriving, possibly in just a few months?

Tesla Gobbled Up 78% Of US Electric Vehicle Sales In 2019*

Yes, Tesla dominated electric vehicle sales in the United States again in 2019. Whereas the Tesla Model 3 was the 9th best selling car in the country and had more than 150,000 sales in the USA*, the next best selling non-Tesla on the market was the Chevy Bolt with 16,418 sales, followed by the Nissan LEAF with 12,365 sales.

In other words, for every 9½ Model 3 sales, there was 1 Bolt sale, and for every 12½ Model 3 sales, there was 1 LEAF sale — and the Bolt and LEAF, theoretically, would be the best selling electric vehicles in the country if not for Tesla. (Let’s just ignore that the Bolt probably wouldn’t exist if not for Tesla, and who knows what specs the LEAF would have?) Note that this report only covers fully electric vehicle sales, not plug-in hybrid sales.

almillar

Martyn:

Sorry to intrude, but can I just check:

1. Is he suggesting that £2k is the average cost of a whole ICE powertrain, including engine block, valvetrain, intake system, exhaust system (including cat), cooling system, fuel tank, clutch and gearbox (and everything else I've missed)?

2. If it is all in for £2k, where can I get it?

I didn't think it was possible to intrude in a public forum!
You'll know my answer. I've pulled him up before on the figure, where it comes from, and what it includes. It should, of course, inclide airbox to exhuast, and everything around and in between. No answer. Now, to be perfectly fair, he's talking about manufacturing costs, not retail cost for you to go and buy one from somewhere.

JKenH:

And this provides comparable performance to a £26k Nissan Leaf 150PS, or perhaps a £38k TM3 base model with 335PS?

Yep, this same old crap again. GA was telling me a Zoe costs twice as much as a Clio. It does not, and I was trying to make sure he was comparing like with like.

GreatApe:

Do you think my skill and experience and costs are no lower today on my 30th home than they were on my first home?

Because my annual output is the same it means costs will be the same?

We're talking about mass production. Building one house per year is not mass production. Do you not recognise the change that the Model T Ford made to motoring? But sure, what you list will cost the same. But after 30 years, you'll have the tools built up, and will have learnt umpteen efficiencies along the way.

What's your point?

(car buyer's budgets being monthly)

My point being that you're banging on about list price of cars, and people budgeting for, say a £30k car. I'm saying they don't do that, and they'll budget for £400 per month or whatever. And may never even pay that £30k. You were saying that people looking for nice premium £30k ICE won't consider a £30k Leaf, I'm just trying to make the point that a minority of cars theses days are bought for 'cash', and therefore not budgeted for in that way. With no judgement of either system.

What is the relevance of the number of years

You're joking here? You brought up 5 years, I'm avoiding bold claims like these. I'm asking you to back up your 5 year claim, now you say numbers aren't important. You brought the numbers in!

I'm confident the answer to that is no

And I'm trying to point out a flaw in your reasoning. We disagree about ICE getting more expensive.

Because 400kg of batteries with exotic materials isn't likely to ever be cheaper than 100kg of ICE which is mostly cheap steel

I do understand what you're saying, but I think you might have the ratio of exotic materials wrong. There are plenty of exotic materials in amongst the cheap steal. Is there still platinum or gold in catalytic converters, for example? The exotic materials in the batteries continue to be reduced too. You'll say that will slow down, I agree. But it's still happening.

Also none of you seem to grasp the obvious fact that ICE costs can fall a LOT
The ICE car companies can cut costs a lot

Presented as fact without an ounce of backup.

So my reasonable estimates are less value than your totally pointless statements of 'EV powertrain costs will go down'?

See above. Neither of us are experts, we're just making guesses. Your posts however, tell us we're all wrong and you're right, and you know better, based on guesstimates. You're very short on acknowledging errors too. Zoe vs Clio cost seems to have been missed for example.

ICE powertrain are affordable to manufacture
22-24% I can accept but I think it's likely lower

You know better than the article JKenH references?!!

So if you want to flex do you get a £25k A4 or a £40k model 3 Tesla?

A4 is 'from £30,750' on Audi's website.

I'd be more convinced of EVs if the affordable EVs were selling like mad
But afaik they aren't

Many manufacturers can't keep up with demand. Leaf would be the second biggest (all time) seller.

Likewise I can see BEVs growing to be very significant in 50 years time but the stories of 5 years from now it's all game over ICE is dead.....just ain't Gona happen

I think your 50 years is very slow, for the vast majority of cars on the road to be electric, but I haven't seen ANYONE say 5 years.

EVandPV

almillar wrote: »

Many manufacturers can't keep up with demand..

Indeed. Last I heard, the waiting time for an E Niro or MG ZS was around a year !