Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

Looking forward to the Tesla Battery Day (early 2020?) when we learn more about what they may (or may not) be up to.

Is Tesla A Step Closer To The 1 Million-Mile Battery?

In 2019, Elon Musk announced that Tesla had a “1 million-mile battery pack” in the making. He said that it was going into production “next year,” which is now here. Tesla, while in a partnership with physicists from Canada’s Dalhousie University, filed a patent in December for new lithium-ion battery tech. The patent is for advanced battery chemistry. Titled “Dioxazolones and nitrile sulfites as electrolyte additives for lithium-ion batteries,” it refers to adjustments to the battery cell chemistry for Tesla products. This chemistry will increase the battery’s performance and longevity while also cutting back the costs. According to the patent application:

EVandPV

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But, applying GAKEN logic,

:rotfl::rotfl:;)

JKenH

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But, applying GAKEN logic, you will find that the total cost of all the other components is -£6000. :rotfl:

Perhaps you would be so kind as to work those figures through for my benefit please, Mart, taking on board the link I provided about the costs of OEM manufacture which is the basis of my logic.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If at first you don't succeed then deny till you die!

EVandPV wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl:;)

If all else fails to win the argument then roll out the old ‘denier’ chestnut again. A bit of playground name calling soon gets the other children whipped up.

I thought you and I had moved on from all this. A perfectly logical discussion about manufacturing costs based on a technical paper is reduced to playground jibes by someone who should know better.

EVandPV

Meanwhile, electric taxis get wireless charging .......

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/electric-taxis-to-go-wireless-thanks-to-new-charging-tech-trial

GreatApe

EVandPV wrote: »

Meanwhile, electric taxis get wireless charging .......

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/electric-taxis-to-go-wireless-thanks-to-new-charging-tech-trial

Ridiculous waste of taxpayers money
Wireless charging offers nothing but inefficiencies
Battery swap technology would be much better investment
A swap could be done in perhaps just one minute

Or better yet if next Gen batteries could be charged faster still
Model 3 peaks at 5.5% recharge per minute but that tapers off
If future batteries could charge at 10% per minute all the way from 10% to 90% that would be just 8 minutes and it would make the recharge issues non existent. Recharging would be just as convenient as filling up the car.

Sure you'd refill once every 150 miles rather than once every 400 miles but that's acceptable
And that would be mostly for those who can't home/work slow charge

ABrass

This thrilling diversion into the cost of a petrol engine was all because the prediction that BEVs will soon cost less than an ICE.

Rather than try to infer the petrol engine cost from three different sources...

...The crossover point — when electric vehicles become cheaper than their combustion-engine equivalents — will be a crucial moment for the EV market. All things being equal, upfront price parity makes a buyer’s decision to buy an EV a matterEvery year, that crossover point gets closer. In 2017, a BloombergNEF analysis forecast that the crossover point was in 2026, nine years out. In 2018, the crossover point was in 2024 — six years (or, as I described it then, two lease cycles) out.


The crossover point, per the latest analysis, is now 2022 for large vehicles in the European Union

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/electric-vehicle-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

Rather than try to infer the petrol engine cost from three different source]

their crystal ball is certainty?

Basic economics dictate a compelling EV irrespective of its cost won't be sold for below ICE prices anytime soon. Why would the car manufacturers sell compelling EVs below ICE prices?

Irrespective of an oil companies particular cost for a particular well there is a clearing price for oil
The oil well that cost half as much doesn't sell oil at half the price. There is a clearing price for oil
There is also a clearing price for cars

Cars aren't all exactly the same so there is a range of clearing prices relative to perceived value of one model Vs another but they are to some degree linked.

What this means is Even if someone invented batteries that cost zero such that EVs were cheaper to make than ICE. The company wouldn't undercut ICE sales. What would be the point?

Business is about maximising profit
Which means selling at the highest price the market will accept for the volume you are willing or able to produce


So I can confidently say compelling BEVs will always cost more than ICE until BEV production capability is sufficient to nearly meet total demand for cars. That's not going to happen this decade perhaps not even by the end of the next decade

This is such an easy concept and so obvious
Yet you don't get it

Ask yourself this
If VW sells petrol Golf for £18,000
And they can produce ID3s for £16,000 but only 300,000 of them
Why sell them for £16,000 when they can sell such a car for at least £22,000 (£4k premium over the golf) and clear the annual production at that price?

So even if EV tech gets cheaper than ICE tech
It will be sold for more than ICE tech
Until battery manufacturing capacity is enough to produce nearly 100% of global car demand there is no reason to sell EVs below ICE prices. There is an incentive to sell them at a premium

GreatApe

Also like with energy production many of you miss the simple fact that auto sales are expected to grow ~2.8% a year this decade

This means the 2019 production of 100 million cars will become 132 million cars in 2029

Even if BEV production grows to 35 million units a year that means ICE production doesn't go down

Will EV production grow to 35 million a year by 2029?
I don't know but you're looking at building/converting 100 large car factories or 10 per year every year to just keep ICE production at current levels

Likewise you need to be completing about 4 large battery giga factories per year

None of this will be easy
The talk of 2022 when EVs are cheaper is likely nonsense considering the above facts

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

Perhaps you would be so kind as to work those figures through for my benefit please, Mart, taking on board the link I provided about the costs of OEM manufacture which is the basis of my logic.



If all else fails to win the argument then roll out the old ‘denier’ chestnut again. A bit of playground name calling soon gets the other children whipped up.

I thought you and I had moved on from all this. A perfectly logical discussion about manufacturing costs based on a technical paper is reduced to playground jibes by someone who should know better.

Certainly - £8,000 for the M5 engine sh plus -£6,000 for all the other components comes to your figure of £2k.

Regarding 'logical discussion' that's what we all are trying to have, but GAKEN keeps introducing misleading claims and figures that are not comparable once considered for more than 5secs.

You may see value in supporting and even promoting false claims on a G&E board such as the FF companies didn't lie about their AGW research, or that there has been no impact from their actions, or the climate science consensus is not now ~99%, or coal emissions don't cause health problems, and so on and on, and going to extreme lengths to demand that the trolling of the G&E board be 'appreciated' as there may be the occasional nugget that you didn't know, buried within a giant mass of false information that defies all logic, science and facts.

But I don't.

I think you will find that the vast majority of people on the G&E board are supportive of G&E issues, and are more interested in constructive debate, fact sharing and finding solutions to problems, than wasting time on ever more desperate attempts to create or imagineer problems to solutions.

Now, you spent the whole summer attacking and mocking me, mostly in posts to which I had no link, until your obsession was pointed out by many, so please don't be such a snowflake when we make some tongue-in-cheek comments about your desperate attempts to defend and support GA's comments. If you are going to make outlandish comments, then expect some pushback, especially on a G&E board that naturally defends G&E issues and of course - truth, facts and science.

Lastly may I remind you of the many times you suggested I didn't have a sense of humour ..... perhaps that was projection!


PS - If you really want to keep pushing this issue, then it's for you (not me) to support the GAKEN claims, and price up the entire powertrain costs of a comparative performance ICE, to get you started I've suggested a BMW M3 or M5, but dealers choice if you like.

But, please note that these side issues are just more of the same disruption and 'look squirrel' techniques used by some to take threads off course, and implant a seed of false negativity. They benefit nobody ..... that matters.

Martyn1981

This vid was really interesting, it looks at the Chinese BEV maker Nio and their decision to swap battery packs. This can be done in 5-6mins, and you can even 'rent' a larger battery pack if needed.

They have two battery sizes and are about to launch a third, but all packs are the same physical dimensions.

The vid goes on to explain why other companies are less keen on the idea (being stuck with a design issue of having to build all cars around a single sized 'hole'), but how it works well in China, especially where most people live in tall housing complex's and can't easily plug in.

This EV Gets a Full Battery in 5 Minutes