Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

ABrass

VWG have been experts in press releases for EVs for years now and failed to deliver much.

However they do seem to finally be putting their money where their mouth is and are trying to actually match BYD and Tesla.

GreatApe

They are just following economics

Their best selling car is probably the golf a sub £19,000 car (golf estate can be had for as low as £17,500 brand new) and it's sold at a profit. Their e golf is ~£27,000 and is probably sold at a loss

They don't think their customers are willing or able to go from a £19,000 car with 600 miles range and all the existing fueling infrastructure to a £27,000 car which only has 90 or so motorway miles. Even less in Germany where people drive at 90mph on the motorway and the e golf would have perhaps just 60 miles at that speed

It's no surprise that they are reluctant
Tesla is no proof of demand for BEVs
How many of you have ever baught a £40,000 brand new car electronic or otherwise
It's not a big market of buyers especially in Europe where average earnings and capital are much lower than the USA

The VWs and Toyotas and Ford's of the world are mid range affordable cars
The corrolla golf and focus customers won't be paying more for electric

When and if the price comes down and motorway miles are 200+ then they'll buy
But that wasn't 5 years ago and it isn't today and probably isn't in five years time either


This is before even considering the market is shifting towards SUVs
The VW Tiguan a much bigger car than the golf and for just £19,700 brand new
Someone after a Tiguan won't be much interested in a golf electric or otherwise

I still think hybrids are the most likely near term (next 20 years) future
A 30 mile hybrid can electrify as much as 99% of annual miles without the need for 10x the battery price weight and cost of a 300 mile full range BEV.

rugbyleaguesmate

I've got a 40K ev, previously I've had a number of 40K ICE cars. I am very fortunate I get that....I'm now saving £4-5000 a year in fuel with some changes of driving habits. I've charged it 3 times away from my house and I'm on 4k miles. Its easy to charge overnight whilst sat on my drive, again I am lucky I have the infrastructure to do this.

Whilst I agree total cost of an EV is too high, I do think comparing total cost of ownership of an EV and a comparable new vehicle over a number of years the EV starts to win ie both cars will depreciate 50% over three years but the EV if enough miles are done will save a fortune on fuel eg your Tiguan will be 25p a mile my EV will be 1 penny a mile.

I think 2 years and you will see the first 25k reasonable sized EV and then real change.

GreatApe

rugbyleaguesmate wrote: »

I've got a 40K ev, previously I've had a number of 40K ICE cars. I am very fortunate I get that....I'm now saving £4-5000 a year in fuel with some changes of driving habits. I've charged it 3 times away from my house and I'm on 4k miles. Its easy to charge overnight whilst sat on my drive, again I am lucky I have the infrastructure to do this.

Whilst I agree total cost of an EV is too high, I do think comparing total cost of ownership of an EV and a comparable new vehicle over a number of years the EV starts to win ie both cars will depreciate 50% over three years but the EV if enough miles are done will save a fortune on fuel eg your Tiguan will be 25p a mile my EV will be 1 penny a mile.

I think 2 years and you will see the first 25k reasonable sized EV and then real change.

You're not saving much fuel relative to an efficient ICE model

A model 3 doing 10,000 miles a year will use about 7,000-9,000 units of fuel depending on the grid being gas or coal. The same fuel energy in an efficient ICE gets 9,800 - 12,600 miles and seeing as most the world's grids are coal heavy (world's #1 source of electricity generation is coal) BEVs actually use more fuel not less

What you are doing is potentially saving a lot of tax
This isn't particularly a good thing since we need to pay for schools hospitals pension etc
Even then a BEV tax saving ability is dependent on its location
In most the world fuel taxes aren't so high
Petrol plus the taxes are 50p a litre in the USA, about 70p in China and 125p in the UK

The big car markets like the USA an efficient ICE like the corolla costs just 4.7 cents a mile (3.6p a mile).

Even if you have very cheap electricity at 1.6p a mile your saving is just 2p a mile
Over 100,000 miles and 12 heads that's just £2,000 saved
Which is nice if the BEV costs £2000 more that might be acceptable
More than that really isn't


Re the arguments of ICE are so expensive to maintain and BEVs so cheap...I don't buy that argument. I've a 19 year old diesel and it's been perfectly fine for the last 15 years of ownership. I'm getting a new car February bit there is nothing wrong with this old car. It's on 206,000 miles and someone else may keep it for another 11 heads and take it all the way to 300,000 miles. This isn't typical most cars don't need to do that most cars are fine to be designed to do just 120,000 miles because most people change a car not because it breaks down or is uneconomical to fox but just because it gets ratty and old.

And maintenance is about how cheap things are to repair as well as how frequently they break down. Of a BEV breaks down half as frequently but costs 4x as much to fox the. It's a worse position to be in. And I'm not convinced by the claims of BEVs lasting much more than ICE primarily because there aren't any normal long mileage BEVs all the high mileage ones are motorway mileage and 5-10 motorway miles is equal to one urban mile. So of someone says they've done 200,000 miles on two years and their BEV is fine that's not all that impressive because it's like a normal car doing 40,000 miles in normal usage.

Also the Tiguan is about 15p a mile not 25p a mile

Anyway I'm not anti BEVs
If the price goes down they will sell
If the prices don't go down towards ICE prices they will not displace ICE cars and will remain niche

GreatApe

rugbyleaguesmate wrote: »

I think 2 years and you will see the first 25k reasonable sized EV and then real change.

There already exists a £25k reasonable sized BEV in the form of an e golf
It's £23k post subsidy But not that much interest

Presumably people don't like the ~90 mile motorway range it's too limited
Or that a petrol golf can be had for a much lower £17,500
I considered the e golf but the 90 mile limited range makes it crippling and the £5,500 I wouldn't get back for 10 years & 1 month in fuel saving

The £5,500 price differential (actually £9,000 difference since the government subsidies can't continue forever) puts people off


I'd argue you need a compelling BEV with at least 150 real world motorway miles @70mph (urban miles are irrelevant) for the very same price and certainly no more than £2000 above it's petrol twin. Then demand would exceed supply and the companies would ramp up big time

Can a 200 mile BEV be produced for £2000 or less than its petrol cousin?
I don't know but it doesn't look likely anytime soon

rugbyleaguesmate

Wow long post...

You're not saving much fuel relative to an efficient ICE model

A model 3 doing 10,000 miles a year will use about 7,000-9,000 units of fuel depending on the grid being gas or coal. The same fuel energy in an efficient ICE gets 9,800 - 12,600 miles and seeing as most the world's grids are coal heavy (world's #1 source of electricity generation is coal) BEVs actually use more fuel not less

What you are doing is potentially saving a lot of tax
This isn't particularly a good thing since we need to pay for schools hospitals pension etc
Even then a BEV tax saving ability is dependent on its location
In most the world fuel taxes aren't so high
Petrol plus the taxes are 50p a litre in the USA, about 70p in China and 125p in the UK

The big car markets like the USA an efficient ICE like the corolla costs just 4.7 cents a mile (3.6p a mile).

Even if you have very cheap electricity at 1.6p a mile your saving is just 2p a mile
Over 100,000 miles and 12 heads that's just £2,000 saved
Which is nice if the BEV costs £2000 more that might be acceptable
More than that really isn't

I pay 1p a mile for my fuel (unless I generate it from my PV) you pay 25p per mile average.

Re the arguments of ICE are so expensive to maintain and BEVs so cheap...I don't buy that argument. I've a 19 year old diesel and it's been perfectly fine for the last 15 years of ownership. I'm getting a new car February bit there is nothing wrong with this old car. It's on 206,000 miles and someone else may keep it for another 11 heads and take it all the way to 300,000 miles. This isn't typical most cars don't need to do that most cars are fine to be designed to do just 120,000 miles because most people change a car not because it breaks down or is uneconomical to fox but just because it gets ratty and old.

And maintenance is about how cheap things are to repair as well as how frequently they break down. Of a BEV breaks down half as frequently but costs 4x as much to fox the. It's a worse position to be in. And I'm not convinced by the claims of BEVs lasting much more than ICE primarily because there aren't any normal long mileage BEVs all the high mileage ones are motorway mileage and 5-10 motorway miles is equal to one urban mile. So of someone says they've done 200,000 miles on two years and their BEV is fine that's not all that impressive because it's like a normal car doing 40,000 miles in normal usage.

I didn't offer anything on maintenance, but your argument saying that your car has been fine is the same as someone will not get ill if they smoke, some don't but many do.

Anyway I'm not anti BEVs
If the price goes down they will sell
If the prices don't go down towards ICE prices they will not displace ICE cars and will remain niche

I agree but cost of ownership needs to be considered rather than just initial purchase price

There already exists a £25k reasonable sized BEV in the form of an e golf
It's £23k post subsidy But not that much interest

Presumably people don't like the ~90 mile motorway range it's too limited
Or that a petrol golf can be had for a much lower £17,500
I considered the e golf but the 90 mile limited range makes it crippling and the £5,500 I wouldn't get back for 10 years & 1 month in fuel saving

The £5,500 price differential (actually £9,000 difference since the government subsidies can't continue forever) puts people off


I'd argue you need a compelling BEV with at least 150 real world motorway miles @70mph (urban miles are irrelevant) for the very same price and certainly no more than £2000 above it's petrol twin. Then demand would exceed supply and the companies would ramp up big time

Can a 200 mile BEV be produced for £2000 or less than its petrol cousin?
I don't know but it doesn't look likely anytime soon

I agree with you again about the E Golf and the range. There are better cars out there as you know both diesel petrol and electric you simply call them all ugly based on one car. Try the new MG, VW I3, new mini, Hyundai Kona, Hyundai Ioniq, BMW I3

Martyn1981

A special vid for all those that say, where will we all charge when BEV numbers grow ..... perhaps charger locations will grow too?

[And no, it's not 'one' charger for a Boeing. ]

727 charging stations at Oslo Airport

EVandPV

Martyn1981 wrote: »

A special vid for all those that say, where will we all charge when BEV numbers grow ..... perhaps charger locations will grow too?

And another solution ...... http://www.rolecserv.com/ev-charging/product/EV-Charging-Street-Light

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

A special vid for all those that say, where will we all charge when BEV numbers grow

The fundamentalist

Like you, I believe the world will be predominantly PV & wind powered at some point
However I understand and know it won't be exponential consistently and will take at least 40-80 years. & not every player in the market will succeed just because it's the future doesn't mean everyone will make money if they go in that direction. Just ask all the solar PV company investors that had their investments go to zero

BEVs will expand but it's going to be a 40-80 year story

ICE is the now ICE is the near future ICE is probably the dominant road transport for all of your lifetime. Just like coal for worldwide power generation is the now is the near future and probably is here for your entire lifetime

Power generation and transport is no like software where it can be deployed to everyone in days/weeks

The tech industry itself isn't as fast as many think. Smartphones grew from nothing to full market in about a decade but that's fake news because all the bits that make a smartphone from the RAM to the CPUs to the cellular technology to the pretty much everything in it was in development and refinement for at least 30 years before that so even the super computer in your pocket was a 40 year deployment process not overnight as people like to project

Everything will be solved in the next 40 years
Housing being probably the #1 concern worldwide
You sit here and moan about fossil fuels and if only we would just do x y z
While half the planet doesn't have a home
The planet needs 5 billion good quality homes and yet only about half that exists
That is the big infrastructure project the import thing to get right. The biggest infrastructure project ever. Building about 500 million new homes per decade. Much bigger than oil or wind or anything else. Probably bigger and more important than every other infrastructure project combined

GreatApe

EVandPV wrote: »

And another solution ...... http://www.rolecserv.com/ev-charging/product/EV-Charging-Street-Light

That's not the problem
The problem is

Toyota $23,000 ASP produced at a profit
Tesla $61,000 ASP produced at a loss

Also by comparison the base level ID3 is supposedly going to sell for €30,000 Euro
Which is £25,000 by comparison a Golf can be had brand new for as little as £17,500